@mishasamin It just dropped to 49% today.
Metaculus keeps switching itself back to light mode every so often, which I'm not a fan of. Could this be fixed? Or just make dark mode the default?
@NoUsernameSelected Unfortunately (for the purposes of this question), my test came back negative.
@WilliamKiely I probably have Covid (albeit nearly asymptomatic) as I've been isolating with someone who got a positive test result a few days ago.
Don't have a date yet, but I'll report back once I get a test done.
What if North Korea merges peacefully with the South or otherwise ceases to be an independent country?
Feels like it might be a bit unfair to give an ambiguous resolution if the land that used to be North Korean becomes part of a larger democratic state.
I agree with the "much more livable" part, but physical distance doesn't particularly matter here - travel time does.
In that regard, getting to Mars would take 6-8 months (assuming optimal fuel use + you can only go once every 2 years), while reaching America from Europe via ship would've taken ~4-6 weeks. Still a fair bit slower, but not 40,000 times slower.
@Roko They don't need to take Lviv for this question, only to enter it with at least 100 troops.
The question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.
Shouldn't this question be closed now? I guess it will be in ~5 days regardless, but I feel like we should follow the rules as they're set out.
What if OpenAI release a bigger NLP model, but don't explicitly call it GPT-4? For example, maybe they come out with "GPT-3.5" or "GPT-X" or "Really Big Language Model 1000".
What if it's primarily, but not exclusively an NLP model? E.g. capable of working with text and images in the same neural net, but still overall "better" with text-only than GPT-3.
Levels of air pollutants and warming gases over some cities and regions are showing significant drops as coronavirus impacts work and travel.
First round winners have been announced. It looks like 7 new prizes have been given out.
Might be time to update upwards.
@rappatoni To be fair, this question was closed for a bit, roughly between March 20th and 30th. People probably would've updated faster if it weren't for that.