Metaculus keeps switching itself back to light mode every so often, which I'm not a fan of. Could this be fixed? Or just make dark mode the default?
@NoUsernameSelected Unfortunately (for the purposes of this question), my test came back negative.
@WilliamKiely I probably have Covid (albeit nearly asymptomatic) as I've been isolating with someone who got a positive test result a few days ago.
Don't have a date yet, but I'll report back once I get a test done.
What if North Korea merges peacefully with the South or otherwise ceases to be an independent country?
Feels like it might be a bit unfair to give an ambiguous resolution if the land that used to be North Korean becomes part of a larger democratic state.
I agree with the "much more livable" part, but physical distance doesn't particularly matter here - travel time does.
In that regard, getting to Mars would take 6-8 months (assuming optimal fuel use + you can only go once every 2 years), while reaching America from Europe via ship would've taken ~4-6 weeks. Still a fair bit slower, but not 40,000 times slower.
What if OpenAI release a bigger NLP model, but don't explicitly call it GPT-4? For example, maybe they come out with "GPT-3.5" or "GPT-X" or "Really Big Language Model 1000".
What if it's primarily, but not exclusively an NLP model? E.g. capable of working with text and images in the same neural net, but still overall "better" with text-only than GPT-3.
Levels of air pollutants and warming gases over some cities and regions are showing significant drops as coronavirus impacts work and travel.
The question resolves negative. It's May now and the highest rated model is Google's T5 at 89.3%.
Shame it got so close, but I guess that's how it goes. It seems the resolution date was set too far ahead as well, so people might get their points truncated if that's not adjusted.
@Jgalt Is it really a World War if it doesn't start on Earth?
The lower bound is ~5000 already, so no reason to go down to 0. I just rounded up to the nearest order of magnitude. People can still put most of their prediction mass below 10k if they choose to do so.
SpaceX files for 20 km hop with FCC. NET October 11.
State of AI Report 2020, which successfully made 4.5 out of 6 predictions from last year, predicts a 10 trillion parameter model within the next 12 months.
Going up another order of magnitude in the next ~4 years after that should be pretty straightforward.
OpenAI just released a paper announcing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter language model.
Computer Scientists Attempt to Corner the Collatz Conjecture - Quanta Magazine