@mishasamin It just dropped to 49% today.
@tryingToPredictFuture A 40% possibility turning out to be true is hardly a failure. It should happen nearly half the time if you're well calibrated.
Metaculus keeps switching itself back to light mode every so often, which I'm not a fan of. Could this be fixed? Or just make dark mode the default?
@NoUsernameSelected Unfortunately (for the purposes of this question), my test came back negative.
@WilliamKiely I probably have Covid (albeit nearly asymptomatic) as I've been isolating with someone who got a positive test result a few days ago.
Don't have a date yet, but I'll report back once I get a test done.
What if North Korea merges peacefully with the South or otherwise ceases to be an independent country?
Feels like it might be a bit unfair to give an ambiguous resolution if the land that used to be North Korean becomes part of a larger democratic state.
I agree with the "much more livable" part, but physical distance doesn't particularly matter here - travel time does.
In that regard, getting to Mars would take 6-8 months (assuming optimal fuel use + you can only go once every 2 years), while reaching America from Europe via ship would've taken ~4-6 weeks. Still a fair bit slower, but not 40,000 times slower.
@Roko They don't need to take Lviv for this question, only to enter it with at least 100 troops.
@Trunton It was removed because the SOTA model is already superhuman on the dataset (NarrativeQA) the question asked about.
@Matthew_Barnett Does this mean 1 of the 3 required AI achievements for this question have already been reached?
— edited by NoUsernameSelected
The question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.
Shouldn't this question be closed now? I guess it will be in ~5 days regardless, but I feel like we should follow the rules as they're set out.
What if OpenAI release a bigger NLP model, but don't explicitly call it GPT-4? For example, maybe they come out with "GPT-3.5" or "GPT-X" or "Really Big Language Model 1000".
What if it's primarily, but not exclusively an NLP model? E.g. capable of working with text and images in the same neural net, but still overall "better" with text-only than GPT-3.
Coronavirus: Air pollution and CO2 fall rapidly as virus spreads
Levels of air pollutants and warming gases over some cities and regions are showing significant drops as coronavirus impacts work and travel.
First round winners have been announced. It looks like 7 new prizes have been given out.
Might be time to update upwards.
20% territorial loss is quite a steep requirement for the biggest country in the world.
The breakup of the Soviet Union would have barely counted, as it lost only ~23% area despite breaking into 15 new countries. If Russia lost all territory even vaguely considered "disputed" today, it still wouldn't be anywhere near enough.