@oracleofferentari that's of one the annual things he signs, nothing unusual. Last year it happened in April, though https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/11246069

@rQ9J-gBBv+sm

Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.

@Duc A dude running away on a webcam is not the condition

This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine.

— edited by Nihil_Supernum

Updating 80% —> 85% after a number of things: 1. [This](https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regathering-of-the-russian-lands) review of why it makes sense for Russia to go in now, and not later. 2. The fact that the withdrawal, announced earlier doesn't seem to withdraw much, on the contrary it [moves](https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1493852263303065603) some units _closer_ to the border. 3. Yesterday's cyberattacks in the Ukraine don't pair well with a supposed deescalation. 4. The trickle of ground combat vehicles, artillery, aircraft seemingly ...

@someone_els8 This just seems bizarre. There were none such media reports, what are they even talking about?

Right now would be a good time to go and update your predictions on all of the conditionals (Will Russian troops enter __?, etc).

@Bookie Russian military budget has risen 10x between then and now. Such useful context.

85% —> 90%

1. Shelling reports coming out of LDNR, and how quickly they are being picked up by Russian media; Investigative Committee's reports of mass civilian graves

2. More troops, materiel per OSINT and Western Intel reports

3. Stocks and currency took a dump

— edited by Nihil_Supernum

Here we go. If full scale invasion doesn't happen until the end of February, will radically revise down. But so far it seems we are in for a ride in the coming days

OSCE confirms shelling earlier today, per Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-…

@oracleofferentari that's crushed ice though, not a good example

Ukrainian airspace is closed to civilian aircraft as of now https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1496…

@BrunoYammine I don't either. More like starting 22

@BrunoYammine sure, it's not. Shouldn't have put it as a standalone item. Went to check the stock market to confirm my impression of (1).

Russia appears to be continuing military build-up around Ukraine: NATO chief

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1493879577030139916

@mishasamin

there's nothing in it for him

30+M people of great quality, very culturally and ethnically close to Russians is not 'nothing'. It'll pay off in a couple of decades, even if the annexation ultimately costs Russia low n multiples of it's GDP.

@BrunoYammine It's on 24th. Most of it will be over by then

@mackbjon Knowing that his state will cease it's miserable existence in a matter of weeks, he is, understandably, in denial

— edited by Nihil_Supernum