@tryingToPredictFuture he's gonna get so many points for this one

@Jim1776 2 things:

1. Could still resolve positive (McCarthy dies, a new vote is called, Trump is elected)
2. The admins have requested that no one tag them for resolution until Jan 10

Any reason for the community to be so low? Here's my thinking: 1. The US congress is very apt to "do something! won't someone please think of the children??" All it takes is one semi-high-profile story about someone falling victim to a scam involving ChatGPT or the like (or even someone being injured due to bad information from a LLM) and I say there's about a 90% chance of this resolving positive 2. It doesn't have to pass, just be introduced 3. It can be introduced in either the Senate or the House All of these raise the probability of it happening ...

[NASA prepares return to the moon with new mission set for August launch](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/nasa-prepares-return-moon-mission-set-august-launch/story?id=87181234) > Fifty-three years after the historic landing of Apollo 11 in 1969, the new mission to orbit the moon is tentatively set to begin on Aug. 29, according to agency officials. > > Artemis I will be an uncrewed test-launch with a newly developed spacecraft, Orion, to determine if it's time to send a human crew to the moon next year. Note the "human crew to the moon" is talking ab...

[Growing Fear Cost Of Living Crisis Could Lead To Public Disorder](https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/redfield-wilton-polling-cost-of-living-rise-crisis-public-disorder-riots) > People blame the government for the UK's economic troubles and predict riots on the streets as the cost of living crisis continues to bite, according to a new poll > ... > A majority of 55 per cent said they were “significantly” or “fairly” concerned that rising cost of living could lead to outbreaks of public disorder as people struggle to afford essentials. A further 2...

SpaceX Starship Full Stack! Official Starship Orbital Launch Window Update! Falcon Heavy Launch!

way too detailed analysis of what needs to be done, big takeaway is Musk is looking at an orbital launch end of february/early march. Applying the musk correction factor gives us an expected launch date of mid-april

@(Jgalt) I'm not sure how furious it'll be - my thoughts say that 1. The Democratic party wants this to happen (I think virtually all democrat politicians are in alignment on this - but maybe there's 1 or 2 who aren't?) 2. The Republican party is moving more and more toward a populist party, and further and further away from principled objections to meddling in the free market 3. Especially with inflation, a bump to the minimum wage so that wages keep pace is getting more popular, leading more Republicans to fall in line with that (even if that's not ne...

@Cato to be clear, this would noto be enough to resolve positive based on this line in the fine print, correct?

A course on AI-assisted writing would be considered distinct, and would not qualify.

@bte From the resolution criteria:

If an acquiring party including personal funding from Elon Musk acquires Twitter in 2022, but Twitter is later sold in 2022 to an acquiring party which does not include any personal funding from Elon Musk, this would still resolve as Yes.

Interesting that the community is so low on Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030? but puts about 25% chance of this question here resolving positively before 2030

Tesla Bot Optimus: Everything We Know So Far

The timetable, like all Elon Musk timetables, is aggressive in the extreme. Tesla hopes to begin sales within three years and certainly before five years. That’s challenging considering the complexity of the task.

Combining that with the Musk forecast correction function that @niplav posted gives a date range of 27-Jun-2030 to 13-May-2035

Twitter is down globally according to downdetector and sfgate. Looking at downdetector it appears to have been down for about an hour already

@Jgalt The "individual developers" makes me think more private beta

Pulled data off of the link and plugged it into a desmos logistic regression here

[WA Ballot Measure to Decriminalize Drugs Has Early Poll Lead](https://filtermag.org/washington-drug-decriminalization-polls/) > According to a survey from March of this year, 46 percent of respondents would “definitely” or “probably” vote for the initiative based on its ballot summary, while 37 percent would “definitely” or “probably” vote against it. Another 17 percent answered that they were undecided, with 6 percent leaning yes, 2 percent leaning no, and 9 percent entirely undecided. > > Taking into account the leanings, the campaign described the i...

Pfizer pulls FDA request for Covid vaccine for kids under 5

U.S. regulators put the brakes on their push to speed Pfizer's COVID-19 to children under 5. FDA reversed course and said it had become clear it needed to wait for data on how well that third shot works for this age group. Pfizer said in a statement that it expected the data by early April.

— edited by 1ethanhansen

Love me a logistic curve

(yeah yeah i know there's hardly any data but it's better than nothing)

edit: supposed to be 10%, 44% was an initial placeholder I had before looking at the data closer

— edited by 1ethanhansen

San Francisco decriminalizes psychedelics, entheogens

The San Francisco Board of Supervisors unanimously passed a motion to decriminalize plant-based psychedelics like psilocybin and ayahuasca. The measure, resolution #220896, concerns entheogenic plants, or plants that can induce changes in perception and mood. It calls for San Francisco police to give investigation and arrests related to use of such substances the lowest priority

@(Trunton) more public-facing stuff now: [OpenAI opens waitlist for ‘experimental’ paid version of ChatGPT with faster answers](https://ground.news/article/openai-opens-waitlist-for-experimental-paid-version-of-chatgpt-with-faster-answers) > Chatbot creator OpenAI is experimenting with ways to monetize ChatGPT. The company is reportedly paying millions of dollars a month to keep the chatbot free to use. OpenAI already offers paid access to some of its software, like image generator DALL-E. Microsoft is reportedly trying to use the software to improve Bi...

The Colorado bill has become law according to the official Colorado general assembly site. I believe that is enough for positive resolution and if there's agreement I'll tag admins.