NathanpmYoung Candidacy

I like forecasting and want to make it easy for people to do it. I spend 2-5 hours a week on here anyway and I think I could happily look over and moderate questions in that time. I run a weekly collaborative forecasting call on the discord.

I'm not sure which AI question is relevant here, but given that most of them seem to give medians of 2050-2100, it seems strange to me that the median here is so much later. I figure that longevity will happen soon after AGI or never.

@juancambeiro works in bio and is farr lower than this

https://twitter.com/juan_cambeiro/status/1622…

"During the first week of October 2022, workers on the affected mink farm noticed that the mink’s mortality rate had increased from a baseline of 0.25% per week to 0.77%, prompting tests on the affected animals for the H5N1 and SARS-CoV-2 viruses. The animals tested positive for H5N1. In the following weeks, more animals fell sick, and the disease seemed to spread from ‘hotspots’ of two to four pens, in which all animals became infected and died. Workers were forced to cull all 51,986 mink on the farm. Eleven farm workers came into contact with the infec...

@Sylvain Big fan of the voting method used.

I think this question title is quite misleading.

@Sylvain Thus begins our reign of terror. We shall be merciful to those who voted for us and deal harshly with the rest.

(Thanks to all who voted, I feel immensely complemented by the votes in favour. Big shout out to Approval Voting as an underrated voting system)

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My model, that seems way too confident but I can't find the issue. Currently it predicts 73%

https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/20652

Assumptions:

Any individual mission will succeed: 90%

Spacex plans to go in 1 launch window: 16%

Spacex plans to go in 2 launch windows: 79%

Spacex plans to go in 3 launch windows: 5%

Spacex have tech by 2025: 22%

Spacex have tech by 2027: 63%

Spacex have tech by 2029: 10%

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Things that 538 predict happen 85% of the time happen 92% of the time. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking…

@Sylvain Existential risk, UK policy, US policy, plant meat , space. I enjoy questions where I think I can get a good prediction on 10 minutes work.

Also enjoy reading feature requests.

@NathanpmYoung V2.0

https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/20652

Chance: 28%

Spacex plans to go in 1 launch window: 20%

Spacex plans to go in 2 launch windows: 80%

Spacex have tech to start by 2025: ~2%

Spacex have tech to start by 2027: ~30%

Spacex have tech to start by 2029: 70%

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I would like it if I could forecast on preliminary quesitions. I always want to "get something down" but am unable.

Got here before Jgalt.

"A nuclear fusion start-up backed by Silicon Valley investor Sam Altman and Peter Thiel’s Mithril Capital has secured $500m to demonstrate commercially viable power by 2024 in the largest capital raise yet by a private fusion company."

https://amp.ft.com/content/dcb75a56-ca23-439c…

HT https://twitter.com/stefanfschubert/status/14…

Some info, but I think this factory will come too late. "Eat Just Inc., a San Francisco-based startup making cultured chicken and vegan eggs, plans to build a commercial facility in Qatar to produce cell-based meat as it looks to expand into new markets overseas. The company is partnering with state-backed Doha Venture Capital and the Qatar Free Zones Authority to build the large-scale plant, which could take two years to complete, according to Eat Just Chief Executive Officer Josh Tetrick. The effort could cost more than $200 million, with a “relevan...

1) I don't know how you show a prediction. But mine is 16%. I think the community is overestimating the chance the Sturgeon goes against Johnson this year. Seems the Prime Minister is very unlikely to agree this in 2021 when he has the option to say "let's wait a bit, we're in the middle of a pandemic" and I doubt Sturgeon is going to do it unilaterally because she'll lose goodwill.

Here is my model https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/17889

Please let me know if I've broken etiquette here.

We do this not because it is easy, but because it is difficult.

@IntoTheSkyLooks like someon's about to win second prize in a Keynesian beauty contest

Collaborative question creation would get a lot more questions people want to see by removing friction.

Suggested workflow:

1) "Create a question" -> "Create/Request a Question". This only requires a title to be able to be submitted ​

2) This is now a hidden searchable question, only visible when a box is checked

3) This question can be upvoted and anyone can contribute to the text or make comments

4) Moderators can approve any of these questions which are up to standard.

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There were 55 cultivated meat orgs in 2019. https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/IN…

Order questions buy %likelihood.

Ie if you could have a set of questions on policies likely to pass in the next 4 years then order them by how likely they were.