NathanpmYoung Candidacy

I like forecasting and want to make it easy for people to do it. I spend 2-5 hours a week on here anyway and I think I could happily look over and moderate questions in that time. I run a weekly collaborative forecasting call on the discord.

@Sylvain Thus begins our reign of terror. We shall be merciful to those who voted for us and deal harshly with the rest.

(Thanks to all who voted, I feel immensely complemented by the votes in favour. Big shout out to Approval Voting as an underrated voting system)

— edited by NathanpmYoung

I'm not sure which AI question is relevant here, but given that most of them seem to give medians of 2050-2100, it seems strange to me that the median here is so much later. I figure that longevity will happen soon after AGI or never.

@Sylvain Big fan of the voting method used.

@Sylvain Existential risk, UK policy, US policy, plant meat , space. I enjoy questions where I think I can get a good prediction on 10 minutes work.

Also enjoy reading feature requests.

Got here before Jgalt.

"A nuclear fusion start-up backed by Silicon Valley investor Sam Altman and Peter Thiel’s Mithril Capital has secured $500m to demonstrate commercially viable power by 2024 in the largest capital raise yet by a private fusion company."…


1) I don't know how you show a prediction. But mine is 16%. I think the community is overestimating the chance the Sturgeon goes against Johnson this year. Seems the Prime Minister is very unlikely to agree this in 2021 when he has the option to say "let's wait a bit, we're in the middle of a pandemic" and I doubt Sturgeon is going to do it unilaterally because she'll lose goodwill.

Here is my model

Please let me know if I've broken etiquette here.

We do this not because it is easy, but because it is difficult.

@IntoTheSkyLooks like someon's about to win second prize in a Keynesian beauty contest

Collaborative question creation would get a lot more questions people want to see by removing friction.

Suggested workflow:

1) "Create a question" -> "Create/Request a Question". This only requires a title to be able to be submitted ​

2) This is now a hidden searchable question, only visible when a box is checked

3) This question can be upvoted and anyone can contribute to the text or make comments

4) Moderators can approve any of these questions which are up to standard.

— edited by NathanpmYoung

Order questions buy %likelihood.

Ie if you could have a set of questions on policies likely to pass in the next 4 years then order them by how likely they were.

Some info, but I think this factory will come too late. "Eat Just Inc., a San Francisco-based startup making cultured chicken and vegan eggs, plans to build a commercial facility in Qatar to produce cell-based meat as it looks to expand into new markets overseas. The company is partnering with state-backed Doha Venture Capital and the Qatar Free Zones Authority to build the large-scale plant, which could take two years to complete, according to Eat Just Chief Executive Officer Josh Tetrick. The effort could cost more than $200 million, with a “relevan...

Nice KBC you got there.. would be a shame if someone were to.. comment on it.

Question approval is slow, difficult and I imagine loses us some great questions.

Solution: Stack overflow-style question moderation.

All users above a certain reputation can edit unapproved questions and then the vote of two other high reputation users approves the change.

This wouldn't need to affect the moderation process but would more quickly get interesting questions to an appropriate standard.

Spoke to someone related to the policy. They said they were 80% confident of a pilot before 2025 with both floors and plot use. This has caused me to update to 60ish.