Apparently this meeting is over and I can’t see anyone reporting that they decided to restrict emigration. I’m surprised that the community prediction hasn’t changed much since the meeting started.
From the San Francisco Chronicle: “In the 15 years before Floyd’s death, 110 officers have been charged with murder or manslaughter for on-duty fatal shootings [...] Just five have been convicted of murder, while 37 have been found guilty of lesser crimes”
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@HadiKhan I'd recommend not putting too much weight on any one particular poll. Poll aggregators, like FiveThirtyEight and PollyVote, have a higher signal-to-noise ratio.
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@holomanga It could be one single user putting all of their probability mass in August — perhaps in order to troll, perhaps not.
Wisconsin, which voted for Donald Trump in 2016, has been called by the AP for Biden.
@j.m. @casens Notice that this question does not resolve based on whether 2020 was warmer than 2016. It resolves based on whether the NASA GISS global average temperature for 2020 is published above that of 2016. Those are two different things, and the latter one is false. (Unless you average the reported average temperatures for each month, act as if you know the month figures to 5 s.f., and treat that as the NASA GISS global average temperature for 2020 instead of the number they themselves report.)
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@Jgalt Username checks out.
@PeterHurford Many of us have — the community median in this question dropped from 30-35% before Trump announced he tested positive for COVID-19 to around 23% afterwards.
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David Chalmers said, in a comment on a Facebook post:
this was an accidental partial leak and the figures displayed can't really be compared to 2009 for various reasons. full results should be released Monday.
I guess something needs to be done about all of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey-related Metaculus questions now.
The resolve date for this question seems unreasonably soon to me. Given that life expectancy calculators estimate that GRRM still has ~13.5 years left, according to comments below, and given that there is a very small chance that the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire will be published in the next three years, it seems to me that by March 2023 this question will be unresolvable.