Thanks @(Big-eyed), I'm sorry I didn't initially understand your point. I agree with you about the importance of Brier (and log) scores. I also agree with @Aithir's comment that a forecaster's Brier Score evaluated at all times is more useful than a forecaster's Brier Score at resolution, since it is a more comprehensive measure of accuracy. I connected with our team and we're going to look into changing the track record view so that users will see the Brier Score evaluated at all times as the default. I really appreciate you bringing this up, because ...
Resolved **Yes** based on widespread credible media reports, Donald Trump's [statement]( acknowledging the indictment, and [a statement from the Manhattan D.A.'s Office]( acknowledging the indictment. While this question is in the ACX tournament and resolves at Scott Alexander's discretion, we have agreed to resolve questions where the resolution is "obvious"...

Resolves Yes. Thanks @Jgalt for all the excellent links.

The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin.

Per the addition to the resolution criteria on Marcy 2, 2022, this is sufficient for a Yes resolution.

@(Big-eyed) Hi Big-eyed, I'd be concerned too if our scoring rule only rewarded the final forecast! The good news is it works differently, and you earned points because your forecast was strong over a period of time, not because you predicted 1% right before we resolved. [Here's more detail on the method behind the Metaculus scoring system]( Your points are time averaged, so moving to 1% for a few moments before the question resolves contributes almost nothing to your final point calculation. In your case...

Hi all, thank you for your patience. Finding no evidence of such an attack, I've resolved this question as No.

@EvanHarper I'm impressed you thought to ask this question. And I agree with you, this is sufficient for a Yes resolution.

Hey all - thanks for the great turnout today. We had 40 participants! We're looking forward to the next Forecast Friday on April 7th.

I've resolved the question as No based on the map released by ISW titled "Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine as of January 27, 2023, 3:00 PM ET."

The ISW maps shows neither "assessed Russian advances," "assessed Russian control," nor "claimed Russian control over Ukrainian territory" within the area identified as Central Bakhmut.

Resolved as Annulled. As far as we can tell, this test has not been conducted, which triggers the following clause from the Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve as Ambiguous if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by April 1, 2023

We now have the annulled resolution to handle these cases.

@tbyoln we'll be sorry not to see you around as frequently. I always appreciate the thoughtfulness of your comments.

@vitamind No worries! We're very appreciative of all the help the community is providing in identifying questions that are ready to resolve. We're just requesting not to be tagged until after Jan 10th to spare our inboxes.

(We'll also continue to set the resolution time to the exact time at which the outcome is official, as best we can).

Thank you all for the detailed analysis. This question resolves as Yes, as both conditions for a positive resolution have been met.

  • Vladimir Putin is president of the Russian Federation as of February 1, 2023.
  • The Russian Federation controls at least 90% of the territory it controlled in January 2022.
I've resolved this question to February 24, 2023, based on a blog post from OpenAI titled "[Planning for AGI and Beyond](" (thanks for the link @MayMeta) This blog post was authored by OpenAI's CEO, it links back to the prior "Approach to Alignment Research," it has been [reported on]( by credible media sources, and has been a [topic of discussion](
2022 Super Bowl Favorites through Week 9: |Team | Vegas | 538 |DVOA | |---------|-------|-----|-------| |Bills | 25.1% | 17% | 17.7% | |Eagles | 16.7% | 19% | 25.1% | |Chiefs | 15.9% | 17% | 7.4% | |49ers | 7.9% | 4% | 2.0% | |Ravens | 7.4% | 6% | 13.8% | |Cowboys | 7.1% | 11% | 11.0% | |Vikings | 5.9% | 7% | 3.4% | |Bucs | 4.9% | 2% | 2.6% | |Dolphins | 4.3% | 3% | 2.0% | |Bengals | 3.5% | 2% | 2.3% | |Chargers | 3.2% | 1% | 1.3% | |Seahawks | 2.7% | 2% | 4.6% | |Titans | 2.2% | 4% | 1.3% | |Patri...

The resolution criterion for this question is a bit confusing. Is the resolution based on the ETH to USD exchange rate at noon EST on Nov 25th, or noon EST or Dec 2nd?

Loreen has won, so this resolves Yes.