From this MarketWatch article, things that affect the price:

  • The probability that the sale goes through
  • The price of TWTR if the sale does not go through
  • Capital gains tax
  • The time it takes for the sale to happen (apparently this is very high variance)

@rodeo_flagellum It looks like the somewhat-bimodal distribution here is from people who are using the linked resolution source, which calculates the value to ~$1,100B, vs people who are using the myriad other sources that calculate it at ~$700-750B (for example https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Do…). The bounds on the predictions seem more in line with the $750B values than the usaspending.gov numbers.