@Uncle Jeff "The academia-loaded Metaculus community is severely biased toward Democrats"

This is a testable hypothesis. I look forward to testing whether this is actually true... eventually.

@Jgalt Can you explain how this is "virtually inevitable"? My understanding is that there has been essentially no progress in extending maximum human lifespan during the whole course of human history.

@A_Guy I'll believe it when I see the lifespan gains. I'm not sure how much to trust aging reversal as measured by an epigenetic clock.

Here is a source that compiled a lot of statistics to compare James Holzhauer's performance with Ken Jennings.

@(jacyanthis) Thanks for this reply. I agree with many of your points, and disagree with some others. > Concern #1 (Overfitting): While I would agree that these are five of the best tests one could specify using today’s benchmarks literature, any set of five tests out of the thousands imaginable will be susceptible to overfitting. The model may perform very well on these tests but very poorly on other intellectual tasks, such as a robotics task of navigating an obstacle course or a coding task of building an entire website with certain specifications. ...

@DavidWayne It resolves in 2010 USD, so it doesn’t matter how much the USD inflates or deflates.

@(kokotajlod) "If this is so, (1) isn't that a calculation for superhuman performance, not human level?" I'm not particularly attached to the term "human-level". I agree that such a model would be narrowly superhuman, as no single human would be capable of doing all of what it does. However, at the same time, none of its abilities would be beyond what individual but separate humans could write (as the model would literally only predict actual human text). "(2) It would be really cool to see the calculations done by parameter count or training-compute-...

@Sylvain Here is a survey that would qualify. I'll add it to the description. It turns out only 6% reportedly subscribed to the Everett interpretation. Perhaps this question will only resolve positively in other worlds...

@randallburns "There is a high profile Matthew Barnett that is different i suspect from the one in the question."

Is this a joke?

I'm Matthew Barnett, the one who wrote the question. We could just say "Metaculite Matthew Barnett" if needed.

I'm also not sure we need a bio for Robin Hanson. But I'll let other people give their thoughts about these matters.

[The Future of Deep Learning Is Photonic ](https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/the-future-of-deep-learning-is-photonic) > There are many additional questions on the computer-architecture side that photonics researchers tend to sweep under the rug. What’s clear though is that, at least theoretically, photonics has the potential to accelerate deep learning by several orders of magnitude. > Based on the technology that’s currently available for the various components (optical modulators, detectors, amplifiers, analog-to-digital converters), it’s ...
@(Jgalt) I agree with the weaker claim that progress in the last century or two has been very fast compared to all prior time in human history. I disagree with the strong claim of inevitability and here's why: * Extending maximum human lifespan seems really hard, as there are currently no medical therapies that have been shown to work in any non-trivial degree, and that's not for lack of trying -- people have been taking drugs and random supplements for decades with pretty much no results as far as we know. Aging is a deeply rooted biological process an...
> The summary of poll results provided by Intel engineer Matt West’s campaign show that Flynn led with 18% of likely voters, 12 points ahead of former state Rep. Andrea Salinas, West and Cody Reynolds (a cryptocurrency investor who has run for office in the past), each with 6%. Another 38% of the vote is split among other candidates, and 37% of voters remained undecided. (The summary provided by the campaign does not break out the other candidates, who include Kathleen Harder, a doctor, and Loretta Smith, a former Multnomah County commissioner.) From [t...

I'm confused at people conflating "natural origin" with "not released in a laboratory." Unless I'm misunderstanding something, the virus can be both natural and have been released by accident in a laboratory. Here's a time where the same thing happened with smallpox.

Here's why I think there's a 35% chance of Trump winning re-election. I think these are pretty powerful facts working against Trump, but since he's incumbent I still give him a decent chance. If Trump were not an incumbent I would probably rate his chances at about 25 or 30% right now. Biden is poised to win the Democratic primaries with a large lead, and earlier than Hillary did in 2016. FiveThirtyEight puts him at 99.8% chance now, essentially guaranteed. This is bad news for Trump's re-election chances because of the following: * The Democratic par...

Unfortunately, I'm a bit late here. But why are we predicting when >1 billion people will receive a vaccine. Shouldn't we be predicting when >1 billion people are vaccinated, even if 600 million took vaccine A, and 600 million took vaccine B?

What is the best way to square this prediction with the community's apparent confidence that AI will radically reshape the world by the end of the century. In [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/), there's currently a 42% chance of human-machine parity by 2040. We could assume that it's at least 50% for 2060. In [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/), ...