I understand that Metaculites may experience some unease over this question, since it seems very unlikely to resolve positively, even given my generous resolution criterion. However, I think it's an important question in order to keep journalists and public health policy analysts in check. These types of questions demonstrate how informed communities of amateur predictors can often outperform the experts.

— edited by Matthew_Barnett

I formulated this question back when Elon Musk was in 25th place among billionaires. I'm glad that this question looks prescient now. :)

@Jgalt After today, the Republican leadership views him with scorn. So just like late-2015.

It's important to note that this question can resolve positive without any progress at all. All that would be required is for many 120+ longevity claims to be verified. It is conceivable that there is some population of humans whose genetics permit maximum lifespans slightly longer than Europeans (which currently make up the majority of verified longest lifespans). Given that by 2100, many more countries will have entered the era where birth certificates are a common thing for all citizens, I do not rule this possibility out.

There hasn't even been a Nobel Prize for string theory yet, and that theory is much more developed, and is taken far more seriously within the physics community (from what I can gather as a layman). Most Nobel prizes also seem to be awarded for experimental work, rather than theoretical work.

Part of what could make Metaculus great is if it were a place that consistently beat common wisdom due to having a few high-quality predictors that knew "better than the crowd" in their particular domain of study. Here's one way I think it could be done: For questions, or question categories (either could work, I'm still thinking about the details) we allow users to enter a confidence score indicating how confident they are about questions of that type, relative to other categories or questions. Everyone's confidence score would by default be equal for...

@HadiKhan I watched the video and I feel like I'm watching a different video than you. Floyd said very explicitly and frequently he was having trouble breathing (both before and after the knee was on his kneck), and he even cited the knee on his neck as a reason (once it was there). My guess is that he had some trouble breathing and the knee made it worse.

The fact he resisted arrest didn't seem to me to make the response justified, as his resistance seemed very passive rather than active.

— edited by Matthew_Barnett

@Tamay No, the body does say that the concession must not be rescinded.

This question resolves to the date at which the losing candidate concedes that they have lost the 2020 US Presidential Election, as long as they do not explicitly rescind said concession within 24 hours.

@(Tamay) It's as good of time as any to link to [Economists Against the FDA](https://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=279), > I have tried to survey all economists’ writings on the FDA and have not been able to find a single instance of an economist defending the contemporary FDA or advocating tighter restrictions. Contrary to the joke about laying all the economists end to end, those who study the issue do reach a conclusion: Relax restrictions on drugs and devices. > [...] > Milton Friedman: “The FDA has done enormous harm to the heal...

The prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period

I feel like this part of the prediction makes it a pretty useless prediction. This is kind of like saying, "Nothing spectacular will happen within the next few decades, conditional on nothing spectacular happening."

@(PeterHurford) Let me put it another way: suppose a user were to ask whether a solar eclipse will happen on December 14th this year. Suppose further that the *intention* of this question was to test whether a New Age apocalypse theory would come true, which predicts that the moon will fall out of the sky on that date, rather than deliver an eclipse. Personally, I’d predict 99%, and I’d sleep just fine with that prediction. But until December 14th, the apocalypse adherents are going to insist they haven’t been proven wrong yet. And so it makes sense to w...

@Uncle Jeff "The academia-loaded Metaculus community is severely biased toward Democrats"

This is a testable hypothesis. I look forward to testing whether this is actually true... eventually.

@Jgalt Can you explain how this is "virtually inevitable"? My understanding is that there has been essentially no progress in extending maximum human lifespan during the whole course of human history.

Here is a source that compiled a lot of statistics to compare James Holzhauer's performance with Ken Jennings.

@Roko You won't look that smart given your public comment. Also, what's worth more, looking slightly smart, or giving accurate information?

@(Jgalt) I agree with the weaker claim that progress in the last century or two has been very fast compared to all prior time in human history. I disagree with the strong claim of inevitability and here's why: * Extending maximum human lifespan seems really hard, as there are currently no medical therapies that have been shown to work in any non-trivial degree, and that's not for lack of trying -- people have been taking drugs and random supplements for decades with pretty much no results as far as we know. Aging is a deeply rooted biological process an...

@SimonM I… just… imagine what you could do with $28 million, and now imagine instead being in space for 10 minutes. I often do not understand humans.

I'm confused at people conflating "natural origin" with "not released in a laboratory." Unless I'm misunderstanding something, the virus can be both natural and have been released by accident in a laboratory. Here's a time where the same thing happened with smallpox.