@(kievalet) Yes, here: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ also: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-sentiment-idUSKBN2CV1M0 https://www.ft.com/content/eafaea7c-8dec-4d30-9970-8b1cf104b187 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-14/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-declines-as-inflation-fears-mount?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/05/14/consumer-sentiment-index-misses-expectations-at-82-point-8.html https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20210514455/us-consumer-sentiment-index-slumps-unexpecte...

@AvrahamEisenberg Several percent of people do not show up for the second appointment and there’s a declining trend in vaccinations, so mid-June looks more realistic to me...

The FED's been inflating the money supply (and, hence, the assets they hold) since its creation. The baseline annual increase in their balance sheet "should" be real GDP growth + inflation, so likely in the 4-5% range annually.

To fall below 8 trillion, they'd have to shrink the B/S by 6+%.

So, against the trend, against the economic reality and against the spending/inflation zeitgeist of the recent past.

It is possible, but more likely in the 10-15% range, not 40% as the community predicts, IMHO.

Per the WHO data the number of cases were: 31 Mar 2021: 127 878 558 31 Dec 2020: 82 358 603

The difference is 45 519 955 or 45.52 millions

They mark the column for 31st March in solid grey on their chart, which should mean that these are final numbers. However, daily incraese for 31st of March of 510k cases is a bit lower than that reported by Worldometers, so it may be worthwile to wait a bit longer for some delayed numbers.


@Jgalt At the moment only tugboats and coast guard vessels have passed the area where the ship was stuck. I checked their beams, the widest I found was 15 meters.

This should resolve positively to ~15:30 UTC

ALP GUARD, a tug boat under Dutch flag and a beam of 21m passed the place where the ship was stuck around that time.

It seems that it was part of the rescue operation, so, alternatively, we may wait for the commercial (not rescue) traffic to resume. There’s a convoy of three container ships (YM WISH, MAERSK ESMERALDAS and EVER GLOBE) with beams of 48-58 meters entering the channel from the North moving at 8-9 knots. At this pace they will reach the place where “our” ship was stuck around 18:30 UTC.

CDC reports 58,587,560 as the number of fully vaccinated on the 31st of Mar. No change vs numbers available yesterday.

@RyanBeck Yeah, I also think most people in the community misunderstand the question, as I did for over a month.

I never see one singular month being annualized for the CPI. It usually is measured over 12M. I think one could annualize a quarter, but a single month is a lottery.

@(AlyssaStevens)@kievalet Probably the best source for resolution of this question are the exchanges on which the Brent Oil Futures contracts are traded. Here are the links for CME GLOBEX exchange: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil_quotes_settlements_futures.html#tradeDate=06%2F02%2F2021 and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=5049354&span=1 The contract closest to expiry is the 'spot' month, which is used for most charts and media reporting. On bo...

@literallytrevor The tracker does not have the "medium risk" category as of now. Do we mean "moderate" here?


Mmmm, you seem to have taken the "per capita" number.

Sep 28 total doses in Germany were 107.24M as per OWID.

@(RyanBeck) Previous month has been 106.3 and the there was an increase of 0.8% (see e.g. MQL5), while a reading of 103.2 would mean a ~3% drop. I would opt for the easy extrapolation of the index, that has last month resolved to 106.3. The second option (ambiguous resolution) seems reasonable, but is less preferred. In my opinion it is easy to reconstitute the previous value, especially as the rounded up index was used in previous resolutions. The third option essentially means that we agree to unexpected change of methodology after 90+% of the time...

@admins @juancambeiro

Should resolve to 170 (170,114k have been vaccinated with one or more doses on May 31st).

There was an update made by JHU 7h ago, but all the numbers stay exactly the same vs yesterday.