I'm young here but I was in agreement with all ~80 resolutions I had here, even when the result was very painfully against me. This was the only resolution that I did not agree with, so I'm happy it resolved ambiguously :-)


Resolves positively, as VIX touched 14.19 today intraday, per Yahoo Finance.

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@(SimonM) Yeah, the TBills are not pricing much risk. The other thing is that such discussion about a default arises EVERY time the US reaches the debt limit. It is just a way for both sides (wanting more spending/debt and wanting less spending/debt) to show that they are "really serious" about their negotiating positions. I vividly remember the 2011 debt-limit crisis. It dragged for more than 3 months, they proposed to print 1 trillion dollar coin (look it up) and other esoteric solutions. Gold shot up to record levels, as the default was supposedly i...

@Rexracer63 The 498k report was for May 1 reporting date, so should be counted as part of May question/averages.


The ECDC data to be used by the script has not been updated since Dec 14, 2020. Can we change the data source say to CDC Covid Data Tracker or OWID?

@cd Yeah, these 5 days are in "dark blue" mode and there's a specific information posted concerning this 5-day delay.

We have likely already passed this threshold 4-5 days ago.

@admins Resolves positively. 3.07 million doses were administered daily on average this past week according to Bloomberg Vaccine tracker.

@Paapix 58,758,831 Another day, another change in data for 31st of Mar - an increase of ~122k

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@(kievalet) Yes, here: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ also: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-sentiment-idUSKBN2CV1M0 https://www.ft.com/content/eafaea7c-8dec-4d30-9970-8b1cf104b187 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-14/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-declines-as-inflation-fears-mount?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/05/14/consumer-sentiment-index-misses-expectations-at-82-point-8.html https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20210514455/us-consumer-sentiment-index-slumps-unexpecte...

@AvrahamEisenberg Several percent of people do not show up for the second appointment and there’s a declining trend in vaccinations, so mid-June looks more realistic to me...

@admins I think it should resolve as 50.


They have already started the count for 2022.

An interesting analysis of the possible path of Quantitative Tightening (QT): https://fedguy.com/the-great-steepening/

Suggests 50B a month for the first 3-4 months ramping up to 80B a month ongoing. Even though the QT is twice as fast as the previous one (2018-19), it is insufficient to reduce the Balance Sheet by 1T by the end of the year. The simulation given in the article adds up to about 450-470B by December 2022.

The FED's been inflating the money supply (and, hence, the assets they hold) since its creation. The baseline annual increase in their balance sheet "should" be real GDP growth + inflation, so likely in the 4-5% range annually.

To fall below 8 trillion, they'd have to shrink the B/S by 6+%.

So, against the trend, against the economic reality and against the spending/inflation zeitgeist of the recent past.

It is possible, but more likely in the 10-15% range, not 40% as the community predicts, IMHO.

Per the WHO data the number of cases were: 31 Mar 2021: 127 878 558 31 Dec 2020: 82 358 603

The difference is 45 519 955 or 45.52 millions

They mark the column for 31st March in solid grey on their chart, which should mean that these are final numbers. However, daily incraese for 31st of March of 510k cases is a bit lower than that reported by Worldometers, so it may be worthwile to wait a bit longer for some delayed numbers.


@Jgalt At the moment only tugboats and coast guard vessels have passed the area where the ship was stuck. I checked their beams, the widest I found was 15 meters.

This should resolve positively to ~15:30 UTC

ALP GUARD, a tug boat under Dutch flag and a beam of 21m passed the place where the ship was stuck around that time.

It seems that it was part of the rescue operation, so, alternatively, we may wait for the commercial (not rescue) traffic to resume. There’s a convoy of three container ships (YM WISH, MAERSK ESMERALDAS and EVER GLOBE) with beams of 48-58 meters entering the channel from the North moving at 8-9 knots. At this pace they will reach the place where “our” ship was stuck around 18:30 UTC.

CDC reports 58,587,560 as the number of fully vaccinated on the 31st of Mar. No change vs numbers available yesterday.

@RyanBeck Yeah, I also think most people in the community misunderstand the question, as I did for over a month.

I never see one singular month being annualized for the CPI. It usually is measured over 12M. I think one could annualize a quarter, but a single month is a lottery.

@(AlyssaStevens)@kievalet Probably the best source for resolution of this question are the exchanges on which the Brent Oil Futures contracts are traded. Here are the links for CME GLOBEX exchange: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil_quotes_settlements_futures.html#tradeDate=06%2F02%2F2021 and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=5049354&span=1 The contract closest to expiry is the 'spot' month, which is used for most charts and media reporting. On bo...