Is the question concerning one dose or two doses vaccinantion? Most vaccines require 2 doses, which moves the timing by 3-4 weeks.

"Hopefully, it is now extremely obvious that Europe should restart dormant nuclear power stations and increase power output of existing ones.

This is critical to national and international security."

-- Elon Musk…

— edited by MaciekK

Price: 111.7

OVX Vol index (for WTIC, though) is 53, which is 3.3% daily, 10.5% for the next 10 trading days.

Price increase needed: 25%, or z=2.4

Probability P(x>Z) = 0.008197 or 0.8%

OK, that was a lot of fun! Final prediction: 13-14-16, while Metaculus went with 6.9-8.0-12

7 points

Generally, it felt as if I were juggling knives, razors and machetes at the same time and still got a pretty nice shave. Not a one I'd go to a TV station to have an interview with, but just a regular everyday one ;-)

— edited by Paapix

A lot of negative points here:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase since April 1982.

@Jgalt That's by date reported. By date of death still run at several dozen per day...

A study from UK Health Security Agency suggests the generation interval is half a day shorter. Not a paper/not peer reviewed.…

@Sylvain Thanks for the condolences :-)

It was a 10σ event, so what can one do.

Yes yes, I can hear you, Nassim, concerning the power laws and non-normality of distributions, but still...

I am sorry to say this, but this series of questions (concerning Jobless Claims) is the most confusing and ridden with errors of all Metaculus: - I am not certain whether Saturdays (reporting dates) or Thursdays (report publishing dates) are used in the resolution, - the dates are all mixed up and Friday dates were used in the description (2nd, 9th, etc of April are Fridays, not Thursdays or Saturdays) - I do not know if the 4 week average or five week average is used – just read the last paragraph of this question to see what I mean. I have asked for ...

Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) on Saturday said any potential Finnish bid to join Nato would have to be made before summer.

@kievalet I think one should take current price and recent volatility as the most important source of information (>95%). If one thinks they have better information than the totality of oil market participants, one should become a trader and easily become a multimillionaire.


For at least the third day in the row the numbers are unchanged.

I think it is reaasonable to resolve to 433k now.

"The 6th preprint from G2P-Japan - #Omicron is less infectious and pathogenic than #Delta and even an early pandemic SARS-CoV-2 in infected hamster model."…

@admins Resolves to 29th of Dec 2021.

As of Dec 29, 2021 the Worldometers's 7 days average for COVID cases worldwide was 1,050,893