Is the question concerning one dose or two doses vaccinantion? Most vaccines require 2 doses, which moves the timing by 3-4 weeks.

With interest rates climbing in the US, Tether is a money printing machine.

With 70B market cap/AUM, it currently gets 2 billion USD annually for free.

"Hopefully, it is now extremely obvious that Europe should restart dormant nuclear power stations and increase power output of existing ones.

This is critical to national and international security."

-- Elon Musk…

— edited by MaciekK

Price: 111.7

OVX Vol index (for WTIC, though) is 53, which is 3.3% daily, 10.5% for the next 10 trading days.

Price increase needed: 25%, or z=2.4

Probability P(x>Z) = 0.008197 or 0.8%

OK, that was a lot of fun! Final prediction: 13-14-16, while Metaculus went with 6.9-8.0-12

7 points

Generally, it felt as if I were juggling knives, razors and machetes at the same time and still got a pretty nice shave. Not a one I'd go to a TV station to have an interview with, but just a regular everyday one ;-)

— edited by Paapix

A lot of negative points here:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase since April 1982.

@Jgalt That's by date reported. By date of death still run at several dozen per day...

A study from UK Health Security Agency suggests the generation interval is half a day shorter. Not a paper/not peer reviewed.…

@Sylvain Thanks for the condolences :-)

It was a 10σ event, so what can one do.

Yes yes, I can hear you, Nassim, concerning the power laws and non-normality of distributions, but still...

I am sorry to say this, but this series of questions (concerning Jobless Claims) is the most confusing and ridden with errors of all Metaculus: - I am not certain whether Saturdays (reporting dates) or Thursdays (report publishing dates) are used in the resolution, - the dates are all mixed up and Friday dates were used in the description (2nd, 9th, etc of April are Fridays, not Thursdays or Saturdays) - I do not know if the 4 week average or five week average is used – just read the last paragraph of this question to see what I mean. I have asked for ...

Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) on Saturday said any potential Finnish bid to join Nato would have to be made before summer.

@kievalet I think one should take current price and recent volatility as the most important source of information (>95%). If one thinks they have better information than the totality of oil market participants, one should become a trader and easily become a multimillionaire.


For at least the third day in the row the numbers are unchanged.

I think it is reaasonable to resolve to 433k now.

"The 6th preprint from G2P-Japan - #Omicron is less infectious and pathogenic than #Delta and even an early pandemic SARS-CoV-2 in infected hamster model."…