Is the question concerning one dose or two doses vaccinantion? Most vaccines require 2 doses, which moves the timing by 3-4 weeks.

OK, that was a lot of fun! Final prediction: 13-14-16, while Metaculus went with 6.9-8.0-12

7 points

Generally, it felt as if I were juggling knives, razors and machetes at the same time and still got a pretty nice shave. Not a one I'd go to a TV station to have an interview with, but just a regular everyday one ;-)

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A lot of negative points here:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase since April 1982.

@Jgalt That's by date reported. By date of death still run at several dozen per day...

@Sylvain Thanks for the condolences :-)

It was a 10σ event, so what can one do.

Yes yes, I can hear you, Nassim, concerning the power laws and non-normality of distributions, but still...

I am sorry to say this, but this series of questions (concerning Jobless Claims) is the most confusing and ridden with errors of all Metaculus: - I am not certain whether Saturdays (reporting dates) or Thursdays (report publishing dates) are used in the resolution, - the dates are all mixed up and Friday dates were used in the description (2nd, 9th, etc of April are Fridays, not Thursdays or Saturdays) - I do not know if the 4 week average or five week average is used – just read the last paragraph of this question to see what I mean. I have asked for ...


For at least the third day in the row the numbers are unchanged.

I think it is reaasonable to resolve to 433k now.


I'm young here but I was in agreement with all ~80 resolutions I had here, even when the result was very painfully against me. This was the only resolution that I did not agree with, so I'm happy it resolved ambiguously :-)


Resolves positively, as VIX touched 14.19 today intraday, per Yahoo Finance.

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@(SimonM) Yeah, the TBills are not pricing much risk. The other thing is that such discussion about a default arises EVERY time the US reaches the debt limit. It is just a way for both sides (wanting more spending/debt and wanting less spending/debt) to show that they are "really serious" about their negotiating positions. I vividly remember the 2011 debt-limit crisis. It dragged for more than 3 months, they proposed to print 1 trillion dollar coin (look it up) and other esoteric solutions. Gold shot up to record levels, as the default was supposedly i...

@Rexracer63 The 498k report was for May 1 reporting date, so should be counted as part of May question/averages.


The ECDC data to be used by the script has not been updated since Dec 14, 2020. Can we change the data source say to CDC Covid Data Tracker or OWID?

@cd Yeah, these 5 days are in "dark blue" mode and there's a specific information posted concerning this 5-day delay.

We have likely already passed this threshold 4-5 days ago.

@admins Resolves positively. 3.07 million doses were administered daily on average this past week according to Bloomberg Vaccine tracker.

@Paapix 58,758,831 Another day, another change in data for 31st of Mar - an increase of ~122k

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