Is the question concerning one dose or two doses vaccinantion? Most vaccines require 2 doses, which moves the timing by 3-4 weeks.
Price: 111.7
OVX Vol index (for WTIC, though) is 53, which is 3.3% daily, 10.5% for the next 10 trading days.
Price increase needed: 25%, or z=2.4
Probability P(x>Z) = 0.008197 or 0.8%
"Hopefully, it is now extremely obvious that Europe should restart dormant nuclear power stations and increase power output of existing ones.
This is critical to national and international security."
-- Elon Musk
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/150061395…
— edited by MaciekK
OK, that was a lot of fun! Final prediction: 13-14-16, while Metaculus went with 6.9-8.0-12
7 points
Generally, it felt as if I were juggling knives, razors and machetes at the same time and still got a pretty nice shave. Not a one I'd go to a TV station to have an interview with, but just a regular everyday one ;-)
— edited by Paapix
A lot of negative points here:
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase since April 1982.
@Jgalt That's by date reported. By date of death still run at several dozen per day...
@admins Resolved to 0.266
A study from UK Health Security Agency suggests the generation interval is half a day shorter. Not a paper/not peer reviewed.
@admins This should resolve to 0.559, as per the BLS release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
@Sylvain Thanks for the condolences :-)
It was a 10σ event, so what can one do.
Yes yes, I can hear you, Nassim, concerning the power laws and non-normality of distributions, but still...
Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) on Saturday said any potential Finnish bid to join Nato would have to be made before summer.
@kievalet I think one should take current price and recent volatility as the most important source of information (>95%). If one thinks they have better information than the totality of oil market participants, one should become a trader and easily become a multimillionaire.
@admins This resolved to 0.943 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Starlink global coverage ETA: June
Much more unlikely to resolve positively in light of this study:
For at least the third day in the row the numbers are unchanged.
I think it is reaasonable to resolve to 433k now.
Mars Helicopter's mission is extended beyond the 5th flight.
"The 6th preprint from G2P-Japan - #Omicron is less infectious and pathogenic than #Delta and even an early pandemic SARS-CoV-2 in infected hamster model."
@admins Resolves to 29th of Dec 2021.
As of Dec 29, 2021 the Worldometers's 7 days average for COVID cases worldwide was 1,050,893