@(jacob.pfau) the question is not will it become untethered, the question is will it lose 50% of its value. Commercial paper [means](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070313/introduction-commercial-paper.asp) that they're making short term unsecured loans to banks and large companies. That's almost 50% of their assets and is highly liquid. Fiduciary deposits means a fiduciary (likely a bank) manages their money and deposits it in 3rd party banks. FDIC insurance is capped at 250K, so using a fiduciary to put 250K in every bank is I think a w...

@KnowName another pro tip here: ever notice how when an airline tries to sell you a water bottle with a pink sticker in the name of fighting breast cancer that they donate the money, not you? In this case you don't want Visa to waive the fees, you want them to donate the fees so that they can write it off on their taxes too!

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Per a senior Dem aide:

"Schumer is exploring using the authority granted to the two Senate leaders in 2004 to reconvene the Senate in times of emergency, to allow for a potential trial to begin immediately after articles of impeachment are sent to the Senate."

And:

Per same aide: "this would still require Leader McConnell, but you would need only the two leaders to make it happen. It would not require unanimous consent of all 100 senators (as Sen. McConnell’s memo indicated)."

@(sbares) I count 13 of the last 30 years had earthquakes 6.0 or greater or ~43%. Go back another decade and over the last 40 years it's 15/40 or 37.5%, so 19% seems too low. Earthquakes are probably less likely to be recorded the further back in time you go, so I just went with the average for the last 30-40 years. You make a really good point though that there are only 8 months left in the year. The method suggested in the question of dividing # of 6.0+ earthquakes by the number of years would give 25/40 or 62.5% for a year! Earthquakes co-occur thoug...
Based on Wikipedia the [Afghan National Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_National_Army) has 180,000 personnel including ~17K special forces who are more properly trained, while the [Taliban's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban) size is ~60K. From what I've read the Taliban is advancing in the countryside because the regular army is not effective and sometimes surrenders, but that the commando units are quite effective. The regular army is less likely to surrender though if they have greater support and a greater chance of winning, so it se...
Key aspect of the question seems to be that it's a survey measure of unemployment (vs official employment claims) based on this week (which in unemployment claims would be reported publicly next week). Survey research linked out to from the Washington Post already estimates 20% unemployment for the week prior to the measuring week: https://alexbick.weebly.com/uploads/1/0/1/3/101306056/bb_covid.pdf Lots of headlines like "U.S. now has 22 million unemployed, wiping out a decade of job gains" are also misleading because that's just claims "in the [last] f...
@(Tilter) It seems like this question is getting a lot of discussion about whether there will be a full scale war, but its outcome is most influenced by either a technicality or a formal Russian invasion of territory already unofficially controlled by Russian backed paramilitaries. In contrast, the question about [Russian troops in Kiev](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/) is much closer to judging what people are discussing in this thread, with the added element of how long a war would last and how far into Ukraini...
@(max.wainwright) why is this resolving positively rather than ambiguous? Were people who switched to 1% at the last minute because they saw the median at 70% supposed to predict that this was only based on sock puppets manipulating them and not switch? I did not make any last minute prediction on the question so I have no points one way or another, but one could also argue that the question itself says resolution occurs based on the median "after closing" not the median after the sock puppets are removed. @Reprisal It's still not clear that mashing the...

Looks like the Australian census question asks for your religion, not whether you are religious, which gets a different distribution. Based on historical data it would need to increase almost 20 points in 5 years which would be unprecedented.

@(nhuvelle) Differences: (1) Boston has better health care than most places so it's more likely to get an effective test and trace regime in place. (2) Boston is #1 college town so it's less likely than other cities to order them to stay closed. (3) Almost all of Harvard's students live on campus so they could more plausibly close the campus to visitors vs. most places that have lots of students off campus. (4) Harvard is rich so it will likely be more risk averse than poorer schools about reopening, that could come in the form of a later timeline but th...
@(alwaysrinse) I'm not saying it's likely that over the long term the government will control Kabul while the Taliban controls the countryside. I'm saying in the event of government collapse elsewhere the Taliban would still struggle to finish the government off in Kabul and that if the government retained Kabul they would eventually retake other territory. A related question here is if Kabul were under threat, would the US engage in a bombing campaign to help prevent the city from falling. I am not optimistic, I think they're going to fight a brutal ci...

@AABoyles Community predictions currently sum to 107%.

I'd consider using a primary source. Our World in Data is a website that may or may not exist in 25 years. If it does exist, it could change its source and thus its definition. Right now it says the source is "Own calculations by Max Roser based on Polity IV data, and data from Wimmer and Min (2006), Gapminder.org, UN Population Division (2015 Rev), and Our World In Data." Sounds likethe [polity project](https://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html) is the underlying data. The convenience of course is that Our World in Data at least currently does th...

Sovereign nuclear powers will not give up sovereignty voluntarily and in the event of a nuclear war the remaining population would be in countries not involved in the nuclear war.

The Hill: [Senate panel votes to make women register for draft](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/564423-senate-panel-votes-to-make-women-register-for-draft) > The Senate Armed Services Committee has approved language in its annual defense policy bill that would require women to register for the draft. > The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) approved by the committee behind closed doors Wednesday “amends the Military Selective Service Act to require the registration of women for Selective Service,” according to a summary released Thursday. *— ...

Wikipedia has three Taiwan Strait Crises, two of which involved live fire in the 50s which would give a rate of ~4% a year. Have there been other minor incidents? Quick googling I'm not finding anything. What's the base rate for this conflict? Are there any comparable conflicts that are primarily at sea vs. soldiers standing right across a line?

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@wobblybobby the questions you propose are on some level about height of speculation in the stock. Interesting questions, but it would be good to also have a longer term question about what in the long run this stock is actually worth, e.g. asking what will the market cap be in a year and really another asking about will it be in 5 years.

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@Natalia_Mendonca thanks. @admins please fix to avoid the embarrassment of this question resolving ambiguously despite a clear election result.

It'd be great to have a question about whether another cryptocurrency will overtake bitcoin by having a larger market capitalization. I've come around to the view that a bitcoin will always have value as a collector's item, which means the price won't completely collapse, but still think that in the long run that will be its only real value as eventually another cryptocurrency will succeed at displacing it with a greater value proposition to the user as a method of exchange in addition to as a store of value. It'd be great to have a question that tested ...
Found a source for base rate at Stage III: [Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters](https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524) Average drug makes it from Stage 3 to approval 59% of the time, 75% for infectious disease, but I not sure what % of that of that is of a similar drug type and likely more of a rush for less effective drugs in the current situation, though approval also seems more likely. It also seems that the study in monkey's was not actually [statistically significant](https://statmodeling.sta...