Could anybody suggest a plausible timeline where this is the result? Only way I can see this happen is total fragmentation of the Russian Federation, which does not seem reasonable within 2 years.

This is barely realizable in normal war conditions imo. Usual dead-wounded ratio is 1:3 or 1:2 at most. Ukraine army has 300k soldiers according to Wikipedia, which would suggest the entirety of the Ukraine army would have to be listed as casualty. Total army collapse often occurs at 20% casualty rate, so even the entirety of the 900k reserve army would be see frontline combat this year 100k deaths would be unlikely.

This comment was originally posted on 100,000

My prediction is that we will not see AGI in our lifetime (>2120). Many advances may seem spectacular but like many academic achievements are breakthroughs without support. Performance is often insular, highly reliant on sterile conditions and more unstable than advertised. Due to this I especially do not see the second point being met: manipulation in meatspace is often an order of magnitude more difficult than in information space. However I give my prediction a fairly low certainty: I am mostly extrapolating from physics where everything worthwhile i...