@(wtnmmo) >The Lightning Network is doomed to fail or will only benefit Blockstream There are [several implementations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_Network#Implementations). There is also widespread hype and support for lightning. If it fails, it will be for technical reasons. I don’t see coalitional problems killing it. >because BTC has been taken over by Blockstream This [seems incorrect](https://medium.com/@whalecalls/fud-or-fact-blockstream-inc-is-the-main-force-behind-bitcoin-and-taken-over-160aed93c003). More generally, I’ve hear...

I own a small amount of BTC. But I want my meaningless internet points, and my prediction is above the community median. C'mon, selloff to 4k! Bitcoin isn't backed by anything! China is going to ban it again! The UI is still terrible for using BTC, lightning is still buggy, and it'll never scale! It's too volatile to be used as a currency! Developing countries use alts! BTC will be obsoleted by alts! It uses too much electricity! Tulips!

@(traviswfisher) I just felt like typing this out and I see you've updated back up. For what it's worth, I don't see the coronavirus as bad enough to push the needle a full percentage point lower from my current 98% to 97%. That would be a drop in odds format of 1.515463918 times lower, which seems too much to me. If I was at 50%, then yes, I’d go down to 49% because in odds format that’s only 1.040816327 times lower. I think the coronavirus is worth 1.04 times lower, but less than 1.5. Though if you were at 50% then you might have some existential ...

Anyone care to describe that magical death mountain around 22.5k they placed in their distributions?

@ Everyone forecasting in bad faith: BAD! Bad forecaster, bad!

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It might be good to specify an estimated explosive yield of at least x kilotons, for ambiguity in cases where a crummy attempt releases a bunch of radiation but doesn’t make a serious explosion. Or to distinguish from very small-yield tactical nukes that visually look more like a conventional explosion with an extra kick. Based on my playing with NukeMap, how does 10 kilotons sound? Hiroshima's was about 16.

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On the (inevitable) class emergence with increased options, and the difficulty of using these things for those who struggled at math: I don't want to have to spend tachyons or have any major restrictions. I am totally cool with confirmations and messages of "Be careful with this cryptic stuff that you could use to wreck yourself harder than you could with just the standard distribution, some of these optimizations are getting into the weeds, just reset if you get confused and you're not totally sure what you're doing, etc". The thing is, I don't have ...
Total number of likes that I've received could be neat. Maybe also have achievements for 10 likes, 100, and 1,000 total likes. (The achievement for 25 likes on a single comment is too hard for me to bother trying to attain, and 5 was pretty easy). Rewards for posting useful stuff seems good in general. I remember during my first few months here I sometimes searched for something in the news, updated my prediction, and then didn't post that information for others. Nowadays I find it rewarding to see my comments get liked, and it has become a major mo...
Calibrating on the relative odds of low-probability outcomes is hard. I have so many compounding uncertainties about the degree and timing of the automation and need for human workers, which materials have become in-demand or abundant, how much the cost of space shipping changes, how much of a status symbol it is to have a cottage on the moon, the residence-classification of lunar/mars governments and the travel patterns of moon-people, the ability and timing of terraforming mars, and how well meatbags could live in either of those places, that I find i...

@TSivasankarMohanan wrote:

Yes I believe that the humans can land on moon by 2030

Yes, I'm very confident they could. In fact, I'm sure they could've done that by 1969. ;)

@alexrjl I have a strong prior on "it's my own error if I'm wrong in a forecast." But with yet another near-miss, I am updating upward on "we were unlucky".

Are there any particular requirements for what sort of journal/paper qualifies for positive resolution? Does it have to be a prestigious one? Anyway, here is a Cochrane review: https://www.cochrane.org/CD001011/DEMENTIA_evidence-for-the-efficacy-of-piracetam-for-dementia-or-cognitive-impairment-is-inadequate-for-clinical-use-but-sufficient-to-justify-further-research >Published evidence does not support the use of piracetam in the treatment of people with dementia or cognitive impairment. Although effects were found on global impression of change, no b...
Recap: in the recent bull market, we saw money pouring into the riskier, more experimental Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. Around June 2017, ETH's market cap became priced [almost as high as BTC's](https://www.flippening.watch/charts/#marketCapRatio). But now many people are [burned from the recent correction](https://i.redd.it/jsrzu0wl5ud01.jpg). The thoroughness of the crash is evident in the Google Trends charts for [Bitcoin](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=Bitcoin) and [Ethereum](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?d...
Sam Altman [1](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1505597901011005442), [2](https://web.archive.org/web/20220320190845/https://twitter.com/sama/status/1505597901011005442) on 2022-Mar-20 says: >I think US college education is nearer to collapsing than it appears. I doubt that. But it would depend on what "collapse" refers to. Some related questions can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/date-when-us-student-debt-bubble-pops/), [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8495/fewer-than-400-us-colleges-by-2050/), [here](https://www....
To the many people who are at 1% (in the Community Stats dropdown, that bracket has the tallest column), please describe which option is closer to your position: 1. You think life on Mars is highly likely, or at least you give it much higher odds than other Metaculites. 2. You expect that life on Mars would be checked for life significantly sooner than on Europa, and you doubt Europa will be sufficiently checked before 2045. So whatever their relative odds of having life, you think the streetlamp will be over Mars, so to speak. 3. There are other bo...
>The reality is that this particular coronavirus is posing challenges that scientists haven't dealt with before, according to Ian Frazer from the University of Queensland. ... >He said the challenge is that coronaviruses have historically been hard to make safe vaccines for, partly because the virus infects the upper respiratory tract, which our immune system isn't great at protecting. ... >"It's a separate immune system, if you like, which isn't easily accessible by vaccine technology," Professor Frazer told the Health Report. >Despite your upper r...

@ghabs I would dump several quadratic upvotes into this comment, or send MIPs, if I could! Great suggestion.

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@(JasonChernofsky) wrote: > There's 0 evidence to assume we can expand lifetimes this long. While medians and average lifespans have increased, the polar outliers haven't. If you mean this in the near-term, then I agree. I you mean this in the longer-term (which you may not, I don't know), then this would be wildly overstated. Don't we have some evidence that genetic modification (in mice) can result in significantly longer lifespans? 150 would require more than that, many simultaneous and well-refined treatments, well outside our reach anytime soon. ...

In a few years we'll lose communication with it, by which time it's just a random object less than one ton in weight, going through interstellar space. Even with better technology, I'm guessing that retrieval is way harder if you've spent long periods of time being unable to communicate with it (though I don't have a good sense of how much harder that makes it).

I am totally ignoring the scenario of aliens listening to it, as my solution to the Fermi Paradox is just to say "Life is more rare than that".

I'm playing with my writing style, to be more readable and concise despite complex topics. Like Paul Graham's essays, Bryan Caplan's econlog posts, or Hanson over on Overcomingbias. I'm finding it helps to type things into Hemingwayapp.com.