@Joker If you want to maximize your points in expected value (and therefore maximize your points almost certainly over repeated trials, assuming statistical independence), you should predict your actual belief.
@randomuser2323 I think “insurrection” is the more technically correct term, since this attempt to seize power was not backed by threat of military force or elite political power.
@Reprisal It counts, but the question also has the condition “as long as they do not explicitly rescind said concession within 24 hours.”
@rakyi it's included as a part of "> Jan 1, 2100"
@ugandamaximum It’s not actually an optimization, so it’s already fixed. If he gets kicked out and you predicted 1% for one day, then you have one day at 55 points. If it doesn’t happen, then you have one day at -276 points. You are punished much more for a wrong 1% prediction (even for a single day) than the amount you gain if it is correct (for a single day). The way to maximize your points is to predict your actual belief.
@EMP A 95% chance gets a brier score of 0.005. It would take 100 of those to make up for the loss incurred by a 50% prediction.
I think the most likely way this happens is if PETA launches a military coup of the federal government.
@Fruo Those predicting higher than 1% are not considering the types of events where human adaptability plays much of a role. The focus is more on the type of event that would destroy all macroscopic life on Earth.
@jabowery ironic imo to link to a YouTube podcast that titles its episodes in alarmist style with all-caps words like “ATTACKS”, “WARNING”, and “CRAZY” while warning of the dangers of groupthink.
ironic also to condemn derision with an another heaping of derision.
But let’s allow the log score to be the ultimate judge.
@yshemesh One solution would be to randomize the winners. For instance: each entrant gets draws in a lottery in proportion to 1 - their average Brier score. This would ensure that the strategy to maximize expected prizes is also the strategy to optimize Brier score.
@JonathanShi well, this was wrong.
@PinkGrowl I agree: there was also a lot more explicit communication about the cultural expectation to not press the button. Nonetheless, there was no reason for us as predictors to assume that this year’s event would follow the same format as past events.
They expect to have 50 million doses produced this year, and to apply for emergency use authorization from the FDA in the third week of November.
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I am not sure if the incentives are there for the prosecutors to drop the case, or if the judge will necessarily dismiss the case because of the pardon. My understanding is that he may still be found guilty; it is only his sentence that is waived by a pardon.
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