An increasing number of people, myself included, would take out loans to buy the dip if it ever even got down to 10k. It's just fundamentally better than gold and fiat.
Could someone create identical questions for Mariupol, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson?
New Elon interview on 12/28 says "best case 5 years, worst case 10 years".
He's in the best position to know, but tends to predict shorter timelines than what actually happens. So I'm just going to take his prediction and fudge it upward a bit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxREm3s1scA
currently 34% on at least 1 detonation in war by 2050: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-l…
But only 8% here. That delta seems too optimistic about the odds of preventing escalation.
I'm updating 76% to 99% now that I saw the leaked bodycam.
Floyd was already saying "I can't breathe" when he was just sitting in the back seat of the car, before he came out the other side of it. This corroborates the autopsy that found severe heart disease & no damage to the neck. This is way more than a reasonable doubt.
Summary of what happened: Drugs + Ideology -> inability to follow basic instructions -> escalation -> panic attack -> heart attack. The knee was a red herring.
At a party, yudkowsky said “one minus epsilon”, but not sure how serious he was
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of… This is a very excellent and comprehensive article about the origin of COVID by Nicholas Wade, IMO the greatest living science journalist. Taken together, all the evidence in the article makes it fair to assign at least a 90% probability to the lab origin.
Pretty high if an AGI started the nuclear war on purpose or if the war escalates to using artificial pandemics to genocide each other. Very low if just nukes, because of mineshaft people.
@alwaysrinse It played a huge role in the Arab Spring, which spawned several civil wars: Syria, Libya, Egypt, Yemen.
"Resolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:
Three countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR
Two countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory."
What about tests and saber-rattling in international waters or disputed waters like the South China Sea, in the context of international conflict but without actually using the nukes on people?
@johnnycaffeine Thank you for convincing me that there is plenty of room for Russia's sanctions to get worse. This could be a credible deterrent if Putin were homo economicus trying to maximize GDP, but I'm not sure what his motivations are. Why wasn't the expectation of sanctions enough to deter him in 2014, and what's different this time?
Do extremely low yield improvised nukes count? e.g. natural uranium deuteride could be used to make a very weak bomb with far fewer resources than the Manhattan project. The US tested a similar device in 1953 with a yield of 0.2kt
I propose to edit the question to have a threshold of 1 kiloton, because this is a very noncentral example of a nuclear detonation.