Unfriendly superintelligence: ?% All other causes combined: <1%
I actually lost points updating to 98% when the consensus was 94%, only because I didn't update to 99% again an hour later. The point system needs to be redesigned somehow.
The ACS report is a dead link.
"will any of these elements ever, even temporarily, increase 10x in price" is a much broader criterion than the headline implies. If mining operations are concentrated, a war could temporarily 10x prices. Or a surge in demand due to the discovery of new uses could 10x prices until mining catches up (like what already happened to palladium)
I think the headline would be more accurate if the requirement was that the price stayed at max($500/oz, 10x) for at least a decade.
Presidents of china ages upon ceasing to be president: Hu Jintao 71 Jiang Zemin 76 Yang Shangkun 85 Li Xiannan 78 Soong Ching-ling 88 Mao Zedong 83
Xi Jinping will be 77 when this resolves, which is younger than 2/3 of the prior ones. So the outside view gives us 66% which agrees with the community prediction.
The price on an individual exchange can get way below the general market price for an instant when somebody gets liquidated. But I think the spirit of the question is the general market price of bitcoin. To disambiguate it should declare the settlement source is an aggregate of several exchanges (e.g. coinmarketcap.com if that still exists)
8 days have passed with no further corroboration of the coup claim. It's probably bogus. The blood cancer might kill him this year though. I'm updating from 95% to 85% because of the blood cancer and his appearance of ill health.
— edited by JonathanRay
@evanbd Lost points in absolute terms. I predicted lower than the community consensus from Dec 22 to Feb 11, and then predicted higher than the community consensus continuously after Feb 11. I think I understand why now. It's doing a time-weighted-average of the point values of all my predictions?
If necessary, Elon can rescue it with his personal tens of billions of cash that he got from selling Tesla stock.
updating all downward on time decay and the Jones No tweet