@meghanjaeger82 Normally I refrain from making such unprofessional comments on here, but...


I did some looking at all the biggest post-WW2 sieges:

Jerusalem 1947, Changchun 1948, Dien Bien Phu 1954, Sanaa 1967, Khe Sanh 1968, Hue 1968, Aleppo 1980, Abadan 1980, Beirut 1982, Basra 1987, Vukovar 1991, Stepanakert 1991, Sarajevo 1992, Grozny 1994, Grozny 1999, Monrovia 2003, Misrata 2011, Aleppo 2012, Sloviansk 2014, Mosul 2016, Fallujah 2016.

ALL of them lasted AT LEAST a month, a few extended out to several years.

I'm going with 1%. Yes, you read that right. 1%.

— edited by Joker


By 2030?

Yeah, I'll believe it when I get my hoverboard, too.

These fatalities are absolutely insane. US intelligence says 5,800 Russian soldiers had died as of today. Additionally, they say 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers had perished as of the 28th. Crunching the math gives us 1.2k soldier fatalities per day. The Ukrainians are claiming 2,000 civilian fatalities as of the 2nd. 285 a day. That gives us roughly 1.5k fatalities a day, total. If I'm correct, we're at 10.5k deaths in just the first week. For reference, the deadliest week in Syria, the bloodiest war in the 21st century thus far, saw "only" 1.7k fatalities a...
I'm sorry, but only wishful thinking leads one to post anything less than 40% Look at the per day death rates of similar invasions between large countries during/since WW2: Germany vs Poland: Germany lost about 500 men a day, Poland almost 2k Germany vs France: Germany lost about 1k men a day, France about 1.7k Soviet Union vs Finland: Finland lost about 250 men a day, the Soviets about 1.4k China vs Vietnam: China lost about 1k men a day, the Vietnamese about 1.2k Iraq vs Iran: 7k men died in Korramshahr alone during a 50 day battle during the in...

I will confidently put this at 1%. I highly doubt AI/robotics will surpass human capabilities in less than 30 years. If I'm wrong and a good chunk of y'all are right, these sapient, genius-level bots ain't just gonna be playing soccer for our amusement as if slavery was okay again, and that's all I'll say about that.

@EvanHarper No way, Katerina has no public face and besides, authoritarian governments are almost never led by women, especially younger ones.

According to Wikipedia, there were over 150k anti-war protestors in Belgrade in 1991-2. No numbers on arrests. Seems protests were front-loaded and died off after that. That was about 2% of the population of Serbia. If there are similar protests in Russia, we're looking at 2.8 million protestors. Then it's just a matter of, how many are arrested? 14k people were arrested during the George Floyd protests in the US. Wikipedia estimates 15 to 25 million protested. So we're looking at 0.6%-1% arrested. That would equate to 16.k-28k arrested in Russia if...

Thank God, Allah, Brahman, the Universe, or whatever you wanna call it that this went down from 10%

If we go with my previously calculated 800 fatalities a day - Russian military, Ukrainian military and civilian - which seems to be supported by recent evidence, we're already at 21.6k. Both sides have made it abundantly clear they're not backing down. They have no reason to when they still have time to maximize their negotiating positions. I don't think Mariupol will be the only city to get the Grozny treatment when this all said and done.

Been at 91% since the 3rd, I see no reason to go up or down at this time.

Community is right on this one. There's a major difference between the US or one of its allies being responsible (which is a firm maybe) and the US or one of its allies knowing this is true, and publishing that for some reason (highly unlikely).

@Jgalt Biden already said its off the table and has said many times no American troops will go to Ukraine.

This question is peak Metaculus.

@Aithir They're probably lower but not by much. Peer-to-peer defender advantage. See my numbers below.

@aran Iran held on for eight years during their war with Iraq, with the whole world pretty much supporting Iraq and shunning them. In fact, their GDP actually grew and crashed at the end of the war, and didn't recover until the late 2000s.

@xfoyuo Because you're signalling bad info in bad faith to forecasters.