@meghanjaeger82 Normally I refrain from making such unprofessional comments on here, but...
I did some looking at all the biggest post-WW2 sieges:
Jerusalem 1947, Changchun 1948, Dien Bien Phu 1954, Sanaa 1967, Khe Sanh 1968, Hue 1968, Aleppo 1980, Abadan 1980, Beirut 1982, Basra 1987, Vukovar 1991, Stepanakert 1991, Sarajevo 1992, Grozny 1994, Grozny 1999, Monrovia 2003, Misrata 2011, Aleppo 2012, Sloviansk 2014, Mosul 2016, Fallujah 2016.
ALL of them lasted AT LEAST a month, a few extended out to several years.
I'm going with 1%. Yes, you read that right. 1%.
— edited by Joker
Yeah, I'll believe it when I get my hoverboard, too.
No offense to you personally but... boooooooo.
Alright, which one of you put 100%?
I will confidently put this at 1%. I highly doubt AI/robotics will surpass human capabilities in less than 30 years. If I'm wrong and a good chunk of y'all are right, these sapient, genius-level bots ain't just gonna be playing soccer for our amusement as if slavery was okay again, and that's all I'll say about that.
Just for reference.
@EvanHarper No way, Katerina has no public face and besides, authoritarian governments are almost never led by women, especially younger ones.
Thank God, Allah, Brahman, the Universe, or whatever you wanna call it that this went down from 10%
If we go with my previously calculated 800 fatalities a day - Russian military, Ukrainian military and civilian - which seems to be supported by recent evidence, we're already at 21.6k. Both sides have made it abundantly clear they're not backing down. They have no reason to when they still have time to maximize their negotiating positions. I don't think Mariupol will be the only city to get the Grozny treatment when this all said and done.
Been at 91% since the 3rd, I see no reason to go up or down at this time.
Community is right on this one. There's a major difference between the US or one of its allies being responsible (which is a firm maybe) and the US or one of its allies knowing this is true, and publishing that for some reason (highly unlikely).
@Jgalt Biden already said its off the table and has said many times no American troops will go to Ukraine.
This question is peak Metaculus.
@Aithir They're probably lower but not by much. Peer-to-peer defender advantage. See my numbers below.
@augustrushrox Aged well lol
@aran Iran held on for eight years during their war with Iraq, with the whole world pretty much supporting Iraq and shunning them. In fact, their GDP actually grew and crashed at the end of the war, and didn't recover until the late 2000s.
@xfoyuo Because you're signalling bad info in bad faith to forecasters.