@Roon I have also detected what may be a sign of covert support for Trump.
All across the nation, in red states and blue states, people are hanging orange lights on their houses; many even displaying orange gourds on their doorsteps, sometimes with elaborately carved faces on them. The number of sightings has increased dramatically over the last two weeks and shows no sign of abating. I take this to be a coded sign of support for the orange candidate in the race.
@QI92756340QI This is about whether he’s PM at a particular point in time; he doesn’t have to remain PM until January 1. While very unlikely, it is possible he could make a comeback.
I'd be interested to know why this is getting so many downvotes. It seems like a perfectly reasonable thing to have a question on, even if it seems very unlikely to happen. I think there is value in communicating that very unlikely things are very unlikely.
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@casens I would imagine Metaculus users are also quite a lot more likely than the general population to be able to work remotely.
Is anyone aware of an even vaguely plausible argument as to how interracial marriage could be made illegal in a way that would not violate the Equal Protection Clause?
@Tamay Now you tell him, right after he downed three bottles of Corona and booked a Princess cruise.
Looks like Boris is going to cost a lot of us a lot of points here...
Another interesting question would be when total off-Earth GDP exceeds that of Earth.
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@casens I think it would be more useful to be able to select on each question when, if ever, you'd like to be notified about it. I would generally like to be notified when questions are 50%, 75%, and 90% of the way through their lifetime; the final day reminder no longer seems useful
@clearthis Mind you, this is the guy who said "We will never concede," and then conceded about 36 hours later
Chauvin found guilty on all counts. This resolves positively.
Even if some AI wanted to kill every human, I doubt it could build the infrastructure to do so before the end of this century.
I think this would be pretty easy for an actual superintelligence, given a decade or so to work with. Just redirect a big enough asteroid and it's over.
I'm just going to sit back and watch this one with a cool detachment.