@Roon I have also detected what may be a sign of covert support for Trump.

All across the nation, in red states and blue states, people are hanging orange lights on their houses; many even displaying orange gourds on their doorsteps, sometimes with elaborately carved faces on them. The number of sightings has increased dramatically over the last two weeks and shows no sign of abating. I take this to be a coded sign of support for the orange candidate in the race.

@casens I would imagine Metaculus users are also quite a lot more likely than the general population to be able to work remotely.

CNBC: [Elon Musk is now the richest person in the world, passing Jeff Bezos](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/elon-musk-is-now-the-richest-person-in-the-world-passing-jeff-bezos-.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1610032766) >Elon Musk just became the richest person in the world, with a net worth of more than $185 billion. >Thursday’s increase in Tesla’s share price pushed Musk past Jeff Bezos, who had been the richest person since 2017 and is currently worth about $184 billion. Musk’s wealth surge over...

@Tamay Now you tell him, right after he downed three bottles of Corona and booked a Princess cruise.

@clearthis Mind you, this is the guy who said "We will never concede," and then conceded about 36 hours later

Chauvin found guilty on all counts. This resolves positively.

I'm just going to sit back and watch this one with a cool detachment.

I think the public rankings should be extended beyond the top 100, given how much the community has expanded over the last few years.

WSJ: Republican House Minority Whip Steve Scalise said Saturday that the presidential election "isn’t over," becoming the first Congressional GOP leader to comment on the matter after the race was called for Joe Biden

It seems the Christmas spirit has evidently already reached the White House, as they have decided to gift millions of dollars to their lawyers without any realistic expectation of getting anything in return. Very generous!

I respectfully request that Stories not be added, as they seem to be everywhere else now.

Metaculus meetup on the moon in 2045, what do you say? I'll bring a bottle.

The group behind the website seems to be quite openly partisan, so I don't think they will set a very high bar for declaring an 'attempted coup.'

Another interesting question would be when total off-Earth GDP exceeds that of Earth.

— edited by Jgalt

A survey of experts has been conducted by Thomas McAndrew and Nicholas Reich at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. [COVID19 Expert Judgmental Forecast Survey 4](https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/1/) >Executive Summary >We have conducted four weekly surveys that asked a group of infectious disease modeling researchers to assess their collective expert opinion on the trajectory of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. >The following page provides a brief summary of the results from the fourth survey, administered on March 9th and 10th, 2020. Particip...

@iladan555 One might hope to win the lottery, but not many people would say they have a 99% chance of doing so

Bloomberg: [Vladimir Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) Given that Putin has led Russia for so long, and seems to have no intention of stepping down, we might want a question on what will happen to Russia wh...

Sometimes, the winning move is not to play.


Even if some AI wanted to kill every human, I doubt it could build the infrastructure to do so before the end of this century.

I think this would be pretty easy for an actual superintelligence, given a decade or so to work with. Just redirect a big enough asteroid and it's over.

It looks like a negative resolution is no longer possible; seems all cruises on the ship are cancelled until at least October, and this question has to resolve on September 30th. The question will either resolve positively or ambiguously, unless there is a change of plans. >This will resolve positive if the Diamond Princess is announced to be leaving service as a cruise ship, or if it announced that the ship has been renamed. It will resolve negative if it is reported that the Diamond Princess has taken on new paying passengers for a pleasure cruise. ...