Criticisms on Twitter of the FiveThirtyEight model's fat tails: ["I know others have pointed at the tails in the 538 model, but they are pretty amazingly wide. There is a 20% chance in the model that someone wins by 280 or more electoral votes (409 to 129 win). In contracts Economist puts this at a 7% chance." ](https://twitter.com/KevinReuning/status/1306324141524635648) ["It seems strange to me that the likelihood of the most probable outcomes actually increases slightly as you move into the tails w/ 538. The Economist is more normal."](https://twitt...
@(PabloStafforini) Former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb addressed this question on CBS' Face The Nation yesterday. https://youtu.be/ZuDDTta6ZS4?t=674 CFR includes only people who get COVID-19, the disease, whereas IFR includes people who are infected but do not have the disease. He points out that in medicine they are concerned with disease so that is what is counted. IFR sounds more like a term from epidemiology. Hence we have different metrics from two closely related fields and this confuses things. Agreed, adjusting for failure to detect inf...

I would like to receive an email notification for any comment posted to a question I authored.

@krtnu Thanks, I made some changes. I think sources would disagree due to biases in traffic (e.g. home/business, fixed/mobile). We should go with the more conservative choice. I have selected Akamai rather than Google. It is conceivable that Akamai doesn't exist when this question resolves, but content delivery networks should be around.

President Trump is planning to participate in the next presidential debate scheduled for Oct. 15, Trump Campaign Communications Director Tim Murtaugh tells CNN.

Asked by CNN on debate plans, Murtaugh said, “It is the President’s intention to debate.”

@Jgalt Since the DPRK has now exhibited what many are calling the Hwasong-16 they may want to test it eventually. I read somewhere that they like to do this during the beginning of a new US administration. Can we add a modified version of this question substituting 2021 for 2020?

Selected paragraphs from [Frequently asked questions: The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on The Employment Situation for May 2020](https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf) Question 9: However, as happened in April and March, some workers who were not at work during the entire reference week were not classified as unemployed on temporary layoff in May. Rather, they were classified as employed but absent from work. BLS analysis of the underlying data suggests that most of these workers were misclassified; they ...

Disneyland reopening on hold as California delays theme park guidelines

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California's health secretary on Friday agreed to hear more input from theme park operators before issuing reopening guidelines, a step that further delays Walt Disney Co's DIS.N plans to welcome visitors back to Disneyland.

Marketwatch: [U.S.-China trade talks move ahead as TikTok sues Trump administration over ban ](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-tiktok-sues-trump-administration-over-ban-heres-how-the-delayed-us-china-trade-talks-are-now-powering-ahead-2020-08-25) > The U.S. and China have held talks over their so-called “Phase 1” trade deal, after discussions were delayed earlier this month. > In a call that included Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, China said that there was a “constructive” tr...