Which part of the test do people think GPT-4 would fail at? SAT is there, Winogrande looks easy, Turing test seems pretty probable to me, leaves only Montezuma. It can do visual input with enough fidelity and could output controls, but I think it would need a very specialized interface and summarization props to give it any chance of doing well on the game. Don't know if that would count with these props but I wouldn't rule it out tbh.
@kokotajlod Agree that resolution method is very flawed. I use metaculus to get a quick view of a question, and I'd assumed that there was very strong evidence against. I shouldn't have to dive into the game theory of the resolution criteria to understand that the predictions don't reflect actual opinions on the question.
Surprised anyone thinks this has a serious chance. Per the NCES stats fldnflncs posted, the % of bachelors going to women has been between 57.0 and 58.0 in each of the last 20 years and peaked at 57.5% in '04 (though projected to hit 57.7%).
Also, it would only require 43% of men to get a bachelors to make this impossible, so if college enrollment keeps rising it will quickly become near impossible.
@isinlor I imagine that the act of screening for Down's Syndrome would not count as 'selected for polygenic scores for intelligence' since there's no estimation of a polygenic score.
@IntoTheSky Yep, 'responsive .. within a year and day' of the revivification seems to rule out any embryo shenanigans.
I think there is a reasonable chance that I have had the virus (live with someone who had all symptoms, no test) and many in my social group have similar experience. Given my demographic similarity to people here I would be very surprised if nobody on here caught it in the next 9 months.
Would this question resolve positive if a rogue AI that is not an intellectual descendent in the sense that it shares few/none of our values harvested this much energy? How closely related does 'intellectual descendent' require?
I'd also be very curious to hear views from those who think the 2020s are more likely than even, say the 2070s? Singularity as a Poisson process with high rate and very little lead time to 1% solar energy?
@JHC Regenerated and it tried a recursive solution that was close but flawed - it never actually wrote out the run command this time, perhaps because it realised in some sense that there was no correct initial setting of the arguments to the recursive function.
So I was wrong about it being easily able to do them, though I think its performance would be way above 6.4% if the intermediate problems in the fine print correspond in difficulty to those in the main body of the question.
@1ethanhansen It's in the question text, from the webbtelescope.com deployment timeline.
@JHC Might fail SAT on training data issues - some evidence that it's memorized some leetcode problems and fails others.
I think that as people learn more about how to use LLMs, the quality of scaffolding around them and the set of tools they are able to use will improve. The bar for being capable of replication will go down even as capability goes up. ie what will ChatGPT plugins + langchain and obvious extensions of it be able to do at the time of GPT-5 release?
Seems like the inclusion of South Sudan reduces signal to noise ratio quite lot here. Understand the desire to have any new signatories but wonder if might best with SS excluded?
This comment was originally posted on India, Israel or Pakistan
@Anastasia 02:09:44 is the fastest American man, that page gives 02:21:38 for Hellen Obiri
Big swing towards Harris up to 0.5% in the last few minutes on https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/poli…, after Harris (and Pence) being <0.1% for the last couple of days.
Anyone got any idea why? Quite a lot of money going in, would have thought the actuarial tables play for a long result would have brought Pence into play as well.
Edit: On second thoughts, this is totally consistent with an expectation of maybe a month-long wait for confirmation, but with Biden heavily favoured.
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Michael Gove tells Boris Johnson to quit
Looks like they're actively planning the leadership contest, going to 8%.