We should have this question, but before 2024 instead of 2023.

I think it is very likely that within the next few weeks a peace agreement will be made. Correct me if I'm wrong: Say that Putin makes a peace deal where: * Donbas separates from Ukraine * Crimea is secured * Some guarantees about not joining certain alliances are made by Ukraine * Some guarantees about Ukraine not getting certain weapons (like long range missiles and nukes) Indications Putin would want this: * Worst sanctions will likely be averted coming on in April * Won't be cut out of SWIFT completely * Gets back access to his forex reserves * ...

I thought I would write a bit more detailed comment on how Musk would be able to get to a trillion $ net worth, and what would be in his way. I am assuming he reaches an age of 90 years. First of all, his companies so far have existed in a rapidly dissapearing zero interest rate environment. When interest rates are low, stock valuations are high. Especially speculative stocks. And it appears inflation will likely stay at least somewhat elevated in the foreseeable future. This means higher interest rates for the foreseeable future. In fact the 2010-2020...

I really don't get the "use nukes to get crushed by NATO to save face" logic. Because: - It would destroy Russia's ability to keep the empire together, they need at least a somewhat functioning army for that. So this would be highly impopular with the elites. - It would bring the war even closer to the average Russian and just increase anxiety - A good portion of them already think they are fighting NATO. And they kind of are. They are fighting a lot of non-Ukrainian volunteers. And a lot of NATO equipment is used. So it would be a large sacrifice wit...

@(Tilter) I think a lot of people overrate power of Russian oligarchs. Putin really clipped their wings in the past 2 decades by strengthening the central government. It is the Siloviki that have most of the power. In a modern dictatorship, business does not have a whole lot of power, since wealth of an oligarch can so easily be confiscated or destroyed. And because so much is done digital, which can be easily monitored by the FSB. And oligarchs are extremely dependent on the financial system. You are sanctioned from that, and your business is toast. So...

@Tzimisce I can use that line of reasoning to argue why next year we will all be flying around on rainbow colored Unicorns. Or anything that is considered unlikely.

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@(tryingToPredictFuture) I think the invasion is only irrational in hindsight. The consensus opinion before February this year was that Ukraine would be weak, the Russian military was a force to be reckoned with. The West's response would be superficial and for optics only. And in Putin's mind, Ukraine's politicians were bribed to not resist and sell their country. The war would be over within a month or two, the West would throw some superficial sanctions onto Russia and not take their Forex reserves. As the Ukrainian leadership would quickly be beh...

@(EvanHarper) I think Prigozhin is very unlikely. He has no charisma and is widely disliked by the elites. He looks like a crook. That is why Putin trusted him with his own mercenary company. I think it is more likely to be someone more moderate than Putin to help make a peace deal with Ukraine and get at least some sort of normality back to Western trade relations. Since the war in Ukraine will likely be an even bigger disaster in 2023 than 2022. As Russia is underequiped, has far worse quality soldiers now with worse morale, and Ukraine is increasi...

@qwertie256 I would like to add that India will likely be furious. Unless the false flag is carried out exceptionally well. Which is unlikely.

The reason is that Pakistan has threatened India with nukes. And normalizing the use of nukes would be extremely dangerous for India. So Putin is almost certainly guaranteed to lose India if any nuclear blasts go off in Ukraine.

We should probably have questions like this about melitopol and mariupol as well?

And about Luhansk and Donetsk.

@rappatoni Maybe because it moved up in the questions main page? That is the reason for me. I did not search for this question.

People who search for Musk may have a positive bias. People who stumble upon this question by accident may have a more negative bias.

I think a question of when Ukraine will retake Mariupol is in order. Just like the one we had on Kherson.

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@tryingToPredictFuture Thanks for the links, but I don't see it.

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25% is way too high. Tesla is still overvalued as it is going to face a lot more competition in the coming years. Input costs for EVs are going to be sky high. It does not look all that likely Tesla will dominate self driving. Even if they manage to get there, it is unlikely they will have most of the market for themselves. And the economics for Starlink are completely unrealistic. It is basically an under priced niche right now. I think as SpaceX keeps spamming LEO with garbage, there will be a lot more pushback against him for accelerating Kessler s...

@tryingToPredictFuture "Judging by how Putin behaves and speaks (when he is not reading a text), he is severely sick."

Can you link some specific videos with time stamps where this is the case?

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@tryingToPredictFuture Oh I am not angry. Just every once in a while you have to call out their BS. Civic duty and all that.

So now a new question on when the bridge will be back in action would be appropriate?

Maybe separate the road and train part too?

@EvanHarper Why wouldn't he set test nukes off first in Russia? This would already be a major step, and could result in the desired effect of a ceasefire. And it would not risk escalation. But it would signal a much increased willingness to use nukes to Western audiences.

Since no nukes have exploded above ground since 1980 I think.

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@EvanHarper I never really understood this Einstein quote, why keeping your mouth shut is so important:

"If A is success in life, then A = x + y + z. Work is x, play is y, and z is keeping your mouth shut." -Albert Einstein, 1929."

Until I saw Elon Musks Twitter.

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@ClayGraubard Yeah I was under mistaken impression that whole of Donbas region was under defacto control of Russia already. That is not the case, so I do think there is a high probability of this resolving to yes.