@jabowery Since you believe that Trump has a greater than 50% chance of being elected do you wish to bet on that? I'll give you 2:1 odds on it which should be excellent for you. Amount does not have to be large but I'm willing to go up to $2,000 on my end (so maximum stake of $1,000 on yours). I'm sure we can find a trusted intermediary here on Metaculus who'll be willing to keep hold of the stake until the question is resolved.

Limited time offer.

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@(oracleofferentari) For reasons of "mission creep" I am very against this idea. We are supposed to be dispassionate observers who give probabilities of certain events happening/not happening here. We are really not here to moralise on what is good or bad, just to predict what will be. Besides this is just a "feel good" way to act like we are somehow contributing while doing nothing at all. The KGB is a competent organisation, unless we have people on the ground in Ukraine doing "original research" so to speak (in which case I agree we should not post i...

Peeps, if any of you suspect you have Covid go get tested. If only for the sake of my Metaculus points.

@kievalet I just wish I had the same level of conviction in my beliefs as you have in yours.

@Jgalt Anyone know these republicans who think Trump is going to be sworn in? I'm going to give them some very very good odds and hand them some easy money.

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@EmanueleAscani The culture has already been Eternal Septembered. Feels no different to r/popular now.

@ry.duff Agreed. Hence why I said original research shouldn't be posted. I'm far more concerned by the site "choosing a side" so to speak than limitations on talking about certain topics. If the mods think we shouldn't talk about troop movements (I disagree but lets go with that for now) because it could have a material impact on the situation on the ground then it should be applied equally to both Ukraine and Russia.

@Jgalt This is the sort of thing I absolutely want to believe will happen but Aubrey de Grey has a history of being over optimistic.

The true test of AI supremacy on this task is to get it to summarise Finnigans Wake. In fact we should get the AI to do this task 10 times in a row and count how many radically different summaries it comes up with.

Surprised how low the community is here at 21%, next year the supreme court is taking a case that could rule the whole practice unconstitutional, with the 6 member conservative majority, it seems decently likely that they will rule against Harvard and may even go the while hog and finish AA.

Only predicting this high since if it resolves positive I get that sweet sweet "Beating the Crowd" Metaculus badge.

Nelson (the defence lawyer for Chauvin) just massively bungled the cross examination for the prosecution's star expert witness pulmonologist doctor - who has an extremely impressive resume and was adamant that the actions of Chauvin killed Floyd. it didn't help that he had a severe dry throat during the examination and kept losing his voice. I now think that a manslaughter conviction is pretty likely, the remaining 30% is mostly the trial getting delayed/hung jury.

@soothsayer Yeah, I wouldn't even count this as being in the realm of predictions, it's more your standard "political tripe" that the politicians et. al. class is a bit too fond of putting out.

I watched almost the whole jury selection process. The people selected all seem to be totally fair, capable of being impartial, and standing their ground if they believe in something. Given the examiner's reports and the toxicology results I don't think there is a >20% chance that Chauvin gets unanimously declared Guilty (which is what would be needed for a conviction).

Any reason for the sudden massive jump in the community prediction from ~50% to ~70%? The US has been making warning noises for a long time now, is the latest Biden announcement really that big or have I missed some other piece of news?

What's the rundown on Cade Metz, the guy supposed to be writing the article?

From what I can find about his writings he seems to be totally reasonable and I don't know why he would want to write an aggressive hit piece, in fact I can't find any hit pieces he has ever written, seems to be just a normal Science Journalist. Not sure why he would even want to do go against Scott's wishes and reveal his True Name.

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