Institute For The Study Of War:

Key Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November.

Good read with many interesting points, makes some interesting callbacks and reasonings for Russian movements

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/rus…

@CraigMichael we do https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuc…

@YasmineBose they post this weekly, it's really not a surprising post after attacks on infrastructure before winter too.

China (huge friend of Russia) warn against use of nuclear weapon. Also last week India did the same

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15884978727309…

G20 today and some other "notable things" 1: Biden, Xi say nuclear war should never be fought. Biden and Xi met on Nov. 14. They agreed that “a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” according to the White House. 2: CIA Director Bill Burns and his Russian intelligence counterpart will meet in Ankara, Turkey, to underscore the consequences if Russia were to deploy a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to a White House National Security Counc...

Oh my, well done to anyone that predicted high lol

India Defense minister tells his Russian counterpart "the nuclear option should not be resorted to by any side as the prospect of the usage of nuclear or radiological weapons goes against the basic tenets of humanity."

India is a large ally of Russia, this is quite notable although i feel this has been communicated prior though private channels. Take it as you will.

https://twitter.com/rajnathsingh/status/15852…

@JoeyJoeJoe Imagine how dead the comments on this question would be without Medvedev

@JoeyJoeJoe Trolls, throwaways, newbies, paranoid people... Pick your poison.

Basically, I wouldn't look too far into it

Front is turning into a meat grinder slowly and leaving less room for large offensives similar to that of September to happen, if Sevastopol is taken it would be in a long time after a hell of a fight and huge casualties on either side, Bakmut is already proving a meat grinder and I can only imagine the natural fortress of Crimea on a whole would be worse with it's many many defence lines.

Also rumors of more Russian mobilization do not help the case

— edited by Gartanon

How Putin blundered into Ukraine — then doubled down According to two people close to the Kremlin, Putin has already gamed out the possibility of using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and has come to the conclusion that even a limited strike would do nothing to benefit Russia. “He has no reason to press the button. What is the point of bombing Ukraine? You detonate a tactical nuke on Zaporizhzhia,” says a former Russian official, referring to the Ukrainian-held capital of a province Putin has claimed for Russia. “Everything is totally irradiated, you can’t...

@DougCampbell and lose alot too

Zelensky moves from "No negotiations under Putin" to

President Zelensky said in his nightly address that Ukraine's formula for peace requires Russia respect Ukraine's territorial integrity as well as fully compensate for the damage caused to Ukraine.

Still, I can see pigs flying before this type of negotiation, worth noting though.

— edited by Gartanon

“There’s no concern that Putin would use strategic nuclear weapons on Ukraine or NATO. There are still fears he might use a tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian battlefield, but there’s currently no sign that that’s going to happen soon” — POLITICO, citing Jake Sullivan

Hi guys its been a minute but here we are again: In a televised meeting of his human rights council that was dominated by the war, Putin said Russians would "defend ourselves with all the means at our disposal", asserting that Russia was seen in the West as "a second-class country that has no right to exist at all" He said the risk of a nuclear war was growing - the latest in a series of such warnings from Moscow - but that Russia would not threaten recklessly to use such weapons. "We haven't gone mad, we realise what nuclear weapons are," Putin said....

As we are having a slow decline here due to the end of the year approaching, may I remind you that we also have a 2024 version of this question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuc…

Russian Foreign Ministry issues statement on prevention of nuclear war “In implementing its policy on nuclear deterrence Russia is strictly and consistently guided by the tenet that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” it said. “Russian doctrinal approaches in this sphere are defined with utmost accuracy, pursue solely defensive goals and do not admit of expansive interpretation.” It added: “These approaches allow for Russia to hypothetically resort to nuclear weapons exclusively in response to an aggression involving the use of weap...

US says Zelenskiy risks allies’ ‘Ukraine fatigue’ if he rejects Russia talks

US is really really pushing for talks right now

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06…

@DougCampbell bro can you stop advertising that under every reply lol

@tryingToPredictFuture I do not agree, although I appreciate the extra source