Institute For The Study Of War:
Key Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November.
Good read with many interesting points, makes some interesting callbacks and reasonings for Russian movements
@YasmineBose they post this weekly, it's really not a surprising post after attacks on infrastructure before winter too.
China (huge friend of Russia) warn against use of nuclear weapon. Also last week India did the same
Oh my, well done to anyone that predicted high lol
India Defense minister tells his Russian counterpart "the nuclear option should not be resorted to by any side as the prospect of the usage of nuclear or radiological weapons goes against the basic tenets of humanity."
India is a large ally of Russia, this is quite notable although i feel this has been communicated prior though private channels. Take it as you will.
@JoeyJoeJoe Imagine how dead the comments on this question would be without Medvedev
@JoeyJoeJoe Trolls, throwaways, newbies, paranoid people... Pick your poison.
Basically, I wouldn't look too far into it
Front is turning into a meat grinder slowly and leaving less room for large offensives similar to that of September to happen, if Sevastopol is taken it would be in a long time after a hell of a fight and huge casualties on either side, Bakmut is already proving a meat grinder and I can only imagine the natural fortress of Crimea on a whole would be worse with it's many many defence lines.
Also rumors of more Russian mobilization do not help the case
— edited by Gartanon
@DougCampbell and lose alot too
Zelensky moves from "No negotiations under Putin" to
President Zelensky said in his nightly address that Ukraine's formula for peace requires Russia respect Ukraine's territorial integrity as well as fully compensate for the damage caused to Ukraine.
Still, I can see pigs flying before this type of negotiation, worth noting though.
— edited by Gartanon
“There’s no concern that Putin would use strategic nuclear weapons on Ukraine or NATO. There are still fears he might use a tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian battlefield, but there’s currently no sign that that’s going to happen soon” — POLITICO, citing Jake Sullivan
As we are having a slow decline here due to the end of the year approaching, may I remind you that we also have a 2024 version of this question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuc…
US says Zelenskiy risks allies’ ‘Ukraine fatigue’ if he rejects Russia talks
US is really really pushing for talks right now
@DougCampbell bro can you stop advertising that under every reply lol
@tryingToPredictFuture I do not agree, although I appreciate the extra source