I strongly urge people to start thinking about and writing new forecasting questions about the potential escalation of this conflict and its impact in the near and long term. What scenarios should we be watching for? What are the potential tail risks? What information would be the most useful for those working on de-escalation?
The collective insight of forecasters is needed right now. @moderators will be prioritizing relevant question submissions.
@TeeJayKay Serious discussion, no, not even internally. We are working on a mobile-first design that will make using Metaculus on mobile much easier, so the prioritization of an app is pretty unlikely for the next 12 months at least.
@monkyyy De Santis recently carefully did not answer when a journalist asked him if he would run, and Trump went absolutely berserk on him, very publicly. He is probably running.
I downgraded my forecast yesterday to 45% and decided to wait until the fighting Sunday to update up or down, given Putin’s orders to “take Kyiv by Monday.”
Today, peace talks are announced. Shocking.
Nuclear alert is also announced. To the press. This is most likely Putin posturing to attempt to show he’s in control when he’s losing ground.
@kievalet I propose that that should not count toward resolution, as it strains the meaning of the word “blocked.”
How do others feel?
@rendall Presumably, Ukraine would not acknowledge having fired the missile in that case and this question would resolve No.
@qw2019 You’re a Ukrainian reserve officer? Have you been notified by the military that you need to be ready, or anything like that?
@MetaCalculator This exists :)
In the filter, first choose Open or Closed within the Forecast Status section, then at the bottom of the menu, sort by Soonest Resolving.
I see the main obstacle as Putin’s not having a face-saving way of doing this.
@deKlik Interesting. Source?
Michael A Horowitz at 8:26pm Pacific time: "Ukraine Minister of Internal Affairs reports that Russia is striking Kyiv with ballistic missiles, asks people to go to bomb shelters."
May I present D-DID.
Congrats to the winners! 🎉
@mumpskin Nah, I’d say the total fatalities sum to probably around 20-25k right now.
@GustavoLacerda Based on what I'm hearing from elsewhere, I believe this is highly likely.