Resolving positively today, February 23, 2022 at 6:49pm Pacific Time based on: 1. Russian President Vladimir [Putin's emergency speech]( stating ["We have decided to launch a special military action"]( 2. US President Joe Biden's [statement]( "The ...

I strongly urge people to start thinking about and writing new forecasting questions about the potential escalation of this conflict and its impact in the near and long term. What scenarios should we be watching for? What are the potential tail risks? What information would be the most useful for those working on de-escalation?

The collective insight of forecasters is needed right now. @moderators will be prioritizing relevant question submissions.

@predictors Thanks for your patience. While considerable uncertainty remains about the total number of combat deaths in the Russo-Ukrainian War, at this time there are a sufficient number of credible estimates to reasonably conclude that the combined military and civilian death toll has surpassed 25,000. Given this, we plan to resolve this question in the affirmative. In the (we believe, unlikely) scenario that significant new information comes to light by 1 March 2023 that controverts this conclusion, we will revisit and re-resolve this question then....
Well, this is horrifying. National security reporter at Foreign Policy, [Jack Deutsch]( > SCOOP: Russia is building lists of high-profile political opponents to capture or kill if it invades Ukraine, four people familiar with U.S. intelligence tell @ak_mack, @RobbieGramer & me. > The U.S. has also been startled by how detailed the lists are. [Russia Planning Post-Invasion Arrest and Assassination Campaign in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say](
@predictors: The team and I greatly appreciate the input you’ve given so far on the resolution of this question. We understand that the current state of affairs doesn’t feel fair, and we are working on a plan to remedy this. To this end, we’re currently conducting an (expeditious) internal review and taking into account the way the resolution criteria were originally structured, how the situation on the ground in Ukraine has evolved, the timing of the availability of reliable information over the last several months, and the many thoughtful (and some u...

@TeeJayKay Serious discussion, no, not even internally. We are working on a mobile-first design that will make using Metaculus on mobile much easier, so the prioritization of an app is pretty unlikely for the next 12 months at least.

@(SimonM) 1. When it comes to Trump, I feel I can safely ignore base rates that describe the actions of previous Presidents. His actions are more guided by the norms of reality TV than political decorum and orthodoxy. 2. This is not a prediction about whether he will be the Republican nominee, but rather about whether he will run at all. @Jgalt has been posting links to interviews with Trump and his former staff that all strongly point to Trump running again. Trump said, “You’re going to be happy,” in answer to a recent question about whether he’ll r...

@monkyyy De Santis recently carefully did not answer when a journalist asked him if he would run, and Trump went absolutely berserk on him, very publicly. He is probably running.

I downgraded my forecast yesterday to 45% and decided to wait until the fighting Sunday to update up or down, given Putin’s orders to “take Kyiv by Monday.”

Today, peace talks are announced. Shocking.

Nuclear alert is also announced. To the press. This is most likely Putin posturing to attempt to show he’s in control when he’s losing ground.

@kievalet I propose that that should not count toward resolution, as it strains the meaning of the word “blocked.”

How do others feel?

@rendall Presumably, Ukraine would not acknowledge having fired the missile in that case and this question would resolve No.

@qw2019 You’re a Ukrainian reserve officer? Have you been notified by the military that you need to be ready, or anything like that?

@MetaCalculator This exists :)

In the filter, first choose Open or Closed within the Forecast Status section, then at the bottom of the menu, sort by Soonest Resolving.

I see the main obstacle as Putin’s not having a face-saving way of doing this.

Michael A Horowitz at 8:26pm Pacific time: "Ukraine Minister of Internal Affairs reports that Russia is striking Kyiv with ballistic missiles, asks people to go to bomb shelters."

Congrats to the winners! 🎉

@mumpskin Nah, I’d say the total fatalities sum to probably around 20-25k right now.

@GustavoLacerda Based on what I'm hearing from elsewhere, I believe this is highly likely.