Claiming to be vegetarian and being vegetarian are two very different things :P
Some surveys find that >60% of vegetarians have eaten meat the very day before they were asked whether they are vegetarian.
Not a big fan of claiming = being, but I suppose you can just claim the question doesn't care about actual adherence and just cares about claiming.
@Jgalt What Trump says and what he does (like it or not) are very different things :P
I'd really like more short-term predictions. I don't want to wait 10 years for my predictions to resolve :P
These betting sites seen overconfident, especially given some local reports coming in from 538 about how absentee ballots are changing the totals. 30-40% chance seems reasonable to me at the moment. Remember that mail-in votes will favor Biden.
Probability of this event has gone up in the community as his 538 chances have gone done. Weird.
I'm guessing we will be able to resolve this question sooner rather than later. I don't think anyone will claim the US is in a recession as of Jan 1, 2020. I still think there are some troubling signs over the next 6-12 months (such as a slight dip in private investment), but so far, no recession!
Another data source:
Seems like since '85 there have been only 2 earthquakes in the US with > $10 billion in damage. This implies a 6% yearly chance of such an earthquake. Over 5 years, the chance of >=1 such earthquake is therefore about 26%.
Why was the Metaculus prediction so high and trending up at the end?
Because there are two questions on this, but both have closed, I've re-opened this one for prediction, so that it covers the time between the Nov. election and (nearly) the cutoff date for Senate confirmation before the next congress.
I'd have opened a new one. It's worth having the initial prediction set in stone and opening a new one, in my opinion. That is, I think it's good to punish predictors for missing low-probability events by question closing time.
@Matthew_Barnett But is that how it's worded? "Until X Event" seems to imply until the start of the election. So maybe this should have been resolved when the first primaries started?
I'd like to note that about 10 days after resolution time, the ratings are no closer to the target:
— edited by Fruo
Why are the forecasts here so different from oil futures? Oil futures predict a roughly $56 price in December 2018: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
Even if you want to add in the prevailing interest rate to it, we get nowhere near the median prediction of $63 on here. And the 50% spread on our prediction is $35?? Seriously?