@bob.bonnett Maybe, but certainly not with 99% likelihood :)
Trump will win other con tester hands down.
It seems to me the chance is greater that the RBG replacement will hurt/help Trump more than his debate appearance. And since the timelines may coincide, it seems like the bigger factor in deciding this question.
Predict US GDP X years from now (e.g. 5).
Predict the local minimum of the US unemployment rate when we do reach it (within a 5 year range, say).
Predict first company to reach $1T nominal market cap.
Predict when % of people living in extreme poverty will hit 3%.
Predict global mean surface temperature in 2025, 2050
Predict US debt in 2028
Will Trump approval rating ever climb up to 48%
@randallburns Unclear that it's disinformation specifically, but it's certainly overblown. 9 ballots were found, 7 for Trump.
9% Metaculus prediction?? :O Should I be freaking out? :O
PA is veering hard toward Biden in the counting. Biden is likely to win it soon
He got money, which is everything for control
Not actually true. The connection between money and reelections is tenuous at best. He also doesn't even have the most money.
More than 2000 predictions on this question? Is someone trying to game the system?
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36% chance of a major earthquake in a 3-year span? Unlikely...
Feature idea: tournaments (?) where everyone who participates has to give predictions for a certain set of events. Right now, my Brier score is really good because I only estimate for questions that I have a decent model for with high confidence. It means it's not a good metric to compare me to someone who has a worse score but has predicted on hundreds of questions. Tournaments where everyone predicts the same set of questions make for a more fair comparison :)
@Anthony Agreed with all others. $10B is critical to the question.
LA Times (ranked 21 on the list of media outlets) covers it:
The question makes no mention of verification...
@Uncle Jeff wrote:
The best chance at a positive resolution will be on April 1.
Then we'll really have a hearty debate whether a joke article really is one that claims there is "reasonable evidence" for the existence of aliens :P
Add a swiss army knife of statistical calculation tools to aid in estimation. Things like a binomial calculator would be great. They could exist behind a button floating on the bottom right of the screen.
Other than that, I think the primary thing would be more activity on the website, more questions to predict on - so just getting this website in front of more enthusiastic and numerate people. Perhaps the rationalist/EA communities would be good for this.
If I could split the percentage here, I'd drop from 2% to 1.7%.