It seems to me that community is relatively high here. I have seen it mentioned several times that for every dead soldier you have 3-5 wounded. This would mean in a case of 50k dead, you would have 200k+ casualties, which is basically the complete original invasion force. To get to this number, Russia would have to massively increase its current combat force, without suffering a complete breakdown of its military. This seems unlikely to happen as long as there is no mobilization in Russia, which in turn seems unlikely, as this would mean that Putin would...

@fianxu I did my forecasts under the assumption that UK would be included. If the question should not include UK then the phrasing should be changed to "European Union". "Europe" refers to the whole continent in my opinion.

Could you be more specific what counts as a "senior official"? For example, in the case of Turkey Senator Lindsey Graham asked for their expulsion. Would this count as senior enough for the resolution of this question?

I am a bit suprised this has basically the same prediction as the question for 2022. When we look at the GDP of Russia over time we see a drop of around 20 % in 2014 after the last round of sanctions hit and crashed by almost half in 2015 (in comparison to 2013). The sanction this time around are way harder, so I would expect a much bigger recession this time. Am I missing something here?

Plotted the losses of [Russia](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/firescript-577a2.appspot.com/o/imgs%2Fapp%2Ffjehn_roam%2FNGShJOSjZq.png?alt=media&token=c3aa87ad-b45b-4f34-9cfc-40966f8afa59) and [Ukraine](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/firescript-577a2.appspot.com/o/imgs%2Fapp%2Ffjehn_roam%2F79tMibC6Q6.png?alt=media&token=3190b28d-b1d5-4266-a603-c09528d80431). Looks like the losses of Ukraine are low and somewhat stable with around 10 units lost per day on average. Losses of Russia have a clear downward trend and are much lower now...

This seems quite unlikely to me. [No state has joined in such a short period of time before](https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/how-new-member-states-join-the-eu-all-you-need-to-know/). Also, the Ukraine still has to have a government that wants to join the EU, which would not be the case if Russia wins the war. Finally, it is stated that states joining the EU must: "be able to implement the EU rulebook effectively and be able to take on the administrative demands of membership.", which sounds hard for a country in the middle of a war. Therefore, I am goi...

@ClayGraubard can this be resolved positively? Even if you use outdated and conservative numbers you end up with over 30000 deaths.

- **My prediction: 3 %** - I used the data [from wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_the_Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) to see when the states deposited the treaty. This resulted in [this plot](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/firescript-577a2.appspot.com/o/imgs%2Fapp%2Ffjehn_roam%2FAUYRIGujeF.png?alt=media&token=cc17adb6-bcb9-43d3-9655-e7ca2afaccc8) - This shows two peaks. The first one is the majority of states joining shortly after the treaty is created. The second peak is the states that followe...

- The last Indo-China War in 1962 has been the[ last major engagement ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) China has fought. They have been somewhat involved in the Vietnam war, but not much. After that China only had some minor clashes. - India had [more engagements ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_India) after the Indo-China war, but those were mainly against Pakistan. - India lost Indo-China war [relatively clearly.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War). China has gott...

I think the community updated to strongly on the current news about extended usage of the power plants. Even if their usage is extended, the current discussion is only about extending it a few months. As this question resolves in June 2023, it seems quite likely that it will still resolve negatively, even if the life time of the nuclear power plants is extended.

I think it is likely that this has already happened. There are reports that there have been 10k to 20k death [in Mariupol](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-state-of-the-union-address-zelenskyy-biden-kyiv-7cc069b80178629a60f4f2d166348d45), ~20k [Russians dead](https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/general-staff-russia-has-lost-21600-troops-since-feb-24/) (unsure how reliable this source is, but in the past they haven't been that much higher than the US estimates), [UN estimates](https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2022/04/ukraine-civilian-casualty-...

We start with the community prediction of currently 57 %. Based on this we tried to find a) how quickly does the EU make proposals and b) who are the stakeholder for this decision? a) There seems to be little research on how quickly the EU makes decisions. However, it seems that decisions in the EU become quicker over time ([Jordan et al. 1999](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/135017699343586)). Figure 5 in this paper is hard to interpret, but it seems to say that it took around 500 days to adopt and submit new proposals in latest time ...

The UK just put out a [press release](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-phase-out-russian-oil-imports), where they state that they want to phase out Russian oil by the end of the year. > The phasing out of imports will not be immediate, but instead allows the UK more than enough time to adjust supply chains, supporting industry and consumers. The government will work with companies through a new Taskforce on Oil to support them to make use of this period in finding alternative supplies. And they are also thinking about gas: > The UK is not dep...

Can somebody with a prediction >30 % explain their reasoning here? Haven't found anybody really working on this. Only came across papers that state that you can easily remove the allergenic compounds by processing the soy and one paper that claims that allergic reactions to soy aren't that high in the first place. So why bother developing this?

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@w.aldred US seems to have a pretty bad track record in estimating this.

Reuters: [Ukraine membership of EU is "not for tomorrow" - French minister](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-membership-eu-is-not-tomorrow-french-minister-2022-03-10/) >The topic of Ukraine entering into the European Union is "not for tomorrow", said French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune, as EU leaders gathered in France to discuss the crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "It will take time," added Beaune, referring to debates in international political circles over whether or not to give Ukraine a fast-track entry into t...

Financial Times: US plans to boost supplies of liquefied natural gas to EU

LNG deliveries from the US would go towards a goal, set by the EU this month, of replacing 50bn cm of gas currently supplied by Russia with alternative supplies.

IAEA: Update 8 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine from March 3rd.

Due to time elapsed since the 1986 Chornobyl accident, the heat load of the spent fuel storage pool and the volume of cooling water contained in the pool is sufficient to maintain effective heat removal without the need for electrical supply.

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Looks like GDP growth rates of US and China have become somewhat parallel. If this continues, China might never catch up to US.

Wall Street Journal: Biden to Announce $1 Billion in New Military Aid to Ukraine

Edit: Just realized this is part of the 13.6 Billion. Sorry about that.

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