The question text is partially phrased as if this were a binary question, rather than a date range question.
@honeypuppy Yeah, I was about to comment that this is trying to capture "when will Democracy take over China" but is actually much more likely to capture "when will China take over The Economist."
At this point I think we are basically forecasting whether the CDC certifies the Delta variant as causing significantly reduced neutralization by antibodies before the resolution date, right?
@mumpskin God protect this innocent nation from that thug.
That's right, I'm thinking that with careful planning I could GUARANTEE myself five or even SIX imaginary internet points in a mere 30 years hence
The main criticism of the Economist model seems to be that it's overconfident, with excessively thin tails. It seems to me that such a model will typically score a little better than a properly calibrated one, though losing out over time through occasional wild misses. I think this is correct.
Kherson has been liberated. Because of the way this question has been framed, we are technically predicting the date upon which Kherson will have remained liberated for 7 days, thus presumably around noon GMT on the 18th. Since in principle some wholly unexpected Russian counterattack could display the Ukrainians again, the question doesn't close, you are all allowed to predict as close to 100% as you dare and scoop up... like one or two extra points.
The normally reliable Ukraine Weapons Tracker claims a positive ID on a specifically Ukrainian variant of the rocket.
Francois Balloux on Twitter:
I would have voted for a ~60% 'intrinsic' reduction of the risk of death for infections caused by the Omicron variant relative to Delta (i.e. averaged over age and immune status), but ~90% doesn't strike me as implausible at this stage.
Trump hints that he "was all set" to call Bernie a Communist, until Biden won Super Tuesday:
I'll tell you, I was all set for Bernie because I thought it was going to happen. We get ready for things. So mentally I’m all set for Bernie, communist, I had everything down. I was all set and then we have this crazy thing that happened on Tuesday...