The question text is partially phrased as if this were a binary question, rather than a date range question.

@honeypuppy Yeah, I was about to comment that this is trying to capture "when will Democracy take over China" but is actually much more likely to capture "when will China take over The Economist."

Sent to [Goddard's Office of Communication](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/about/email-goddard.html): > Subject: Has Webb's NIRcam captured images, even just for mirror alignment? When were such first captured? > Good day, I'm emailing on behalf of myself and a few other users of Metaculus, the crowd-sourced amateur forecasting website (like PredictIt or Polymarket but with play money). We're trying to resolve a question we ran about the James Webb Space Telescope returning images within 6 weeks of launch – any images, not just externally useful ...

I think it is more likely than not (~65%) that SARS-CoV-2 will turn out to be a laboratory-made derivative of RaTG13 or a close relative, trained on human cells in legitimate (but risky) [gain-of-function research](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502), and released accidentally. However, we may *never* have definitive proof. I think what is likely is a slow drip-drip of circumstantial evidence, combined with increasingly erratic and self-incriminating behavior from Beijing. Even *no* news benefits the la...

The Wall Street Journal: [Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, Energy Department Now Says](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a) > The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, according to a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress. > ... > The Energy Department’s conclusion is the result of new intelligence and is significant because the agency has considerable scientific expertise and oversees...

At this point I think we are basically forecasting whether the CDC certifies the Delta variant as causing significantly reduced neutralization by antibodies before the resolution date, right?

@mumpskin God protect this innocent nation from that thug.

It looks to me as if this question now ought to resolve **Positive**ly. https://downdetector.com/status/twitter/ registers a huge spike in outage reports from about 7 pm EST through at least 10:30 pm. [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/12/28/twitter-global-outage/): > According to Downdetector, reports of the outage started in the United Kingdom, followed by Canada, Germany, Italy and France. The tracker said the vast majority of people impacted by the outage were using the Twitter website, not the app. [SFGate](https://w...

That's right, I'm thinking that with careful planning I could GUARANTEE myself five or even SIX imaginary internet points in a mere 30 years hence

The main criticism of the Economist model seems to be that it's overconfident, with excessively thin tails. It seems to me that such a model will typically score a little better than a properly calibrated one, though losing out over time through occasional wild misses. I think this is correct.

Suppose Mr. Putin were to [set off a nuke high above Ukraine's surface, in an attack aimed (in the direct sense) at disabling orbiting satellites](https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/getting-serious-about-the-threat-of-high-altitude-nuclear-detonations/) rather than killing and destroying at ground level. Does that trigger positive resolution? Certainly above the Von Karman line I would say is no longer "in Ukraine," but exploding e.g. a medium-large hydrogen bomb at 50 km would wreak havoc with satellites while also causing scattered eye injuries, at the ...

Kherson has been liberated. Because of the way this question has been framed, we are technically predicting the date upon which Kherson will have remained liberated for 7 days, thus presumably around noon GMT on the 18th. Since in principle some wholly unexpected Russian counterattack could display the Ukrainians again, the question doesn't close, you are all allowed to predict as close to 100% as you dare and scoop up... like one or two extra points.

@2e10e122 How about forecasting the population of Prospera in, say, 2035?

Report: [Turkey operated STM Kargu-2 drones in lethal autonomous mode against Haftar forces in Libya](https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/was-a-flying-killer-robot-used-in-libya-quite-possibly/) > Logistics convoys and retreating [enemy forces] were subsequently hunted down and remotely engaged by the unmanned combat aerial vehicles or the lethal autonomous weapons systems such as the STM Kargu-2 ... and other loitering munitions. The lethal autonomous weapons systems were programmed to attack targets without requiring data connectivity between the operator...

The normally reliable Ukraine Weapons Tracker claims a positive ID on a specifically Ukrainian variant of the rocket.

Francois Balloux on Twitter:

I would have voted for a ~60% 'intrinsic' reduction of the risk of death for infections caused by the Omicron variant relative to Delta (i.e. averaged over age and immune status), but ~90% doesn't strike me as implausible at this stage.

Branislav L. Slantchev on Wordpress: [Putin’s Military Solution?](https://slantchev.wordpress.com/2022/09/29/putins-military-solution/) > The mobilization is chaotic and desperate [...] Proper training requires at least 2 months, and for offensive operations, closer to 6. What happens next really depend on whether the Russians can solve their supply and command issues fast enough. I happen to think that this is unlikely. > [...] > If this analysis is correct, the Kremlin is banking on a military solution through conventional forces. This would impl...

According to [the Metaculus track record](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/) and depending on exactly which metric we pick, this may have been Metaculus's worst ever performance on a binary question, according to objective metrics. The other contender is [appropriately also about crypto](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/529/will-bitcoin-and-etherium-be-the-two-highest-market-cap-cryptocurrencies-for-all-of-november-2017/), and if we allow treating range questions as directly comparable, then two very closely related "COVID in Virginia...

@(Uncle Jeff) I agree that there is substantial hypocrisy on the left in refusing to condemn BLM- and Antifa-related property destruction and thuggery, but I'm not aware of any examples of e.g. a Minneapolis city councilman whipping up a crowd to march on a police station, which they then burn down. When you say Democratic mayors and governors are "nurturing" BLM riots you seem to have something a lot less direct in mind than what Trump did. In the case of Antifa, I don't know what you've been told, but they absolutely despise Democratic mayors and gover...

Trump hints that he "was all set" to call Bernie a Communist, until Biden won Super Tuesday:

I'll tell you, I was all set for Bernie because I thought it was going to happen. We get ready for things. So mentally I’m all set for Bernie, communist, I had everything down. I was all set and then we have this crazy thing that happened on Tuesday...