@honeypuppy Yeah, I was about to comment that this is trying to capture "when will Democracy take over China" but is actually much more likely to capture "when will China take over The Economist."
At this point I think we are basically forecasting whether the CDC certifies the Delta variant as causing significantly reduced neutralization by antibodies before the resolution date, right?
The main criticism of the Economist model seems to be that it's overconfident, with excessively thin tails. It seems to me that such a model will typically score a little better than a properly calibrated one, though losing out over time through occasional wild misses. I think this is correct.
That's right, I'm thinking that with careful planning I could GUARANTEE myself five or even SIX imaginary internet points in a mere 30 years hence
Francois Balloux on Twitter:
I would have voted for a ~60% 'intrinsic' reduction of the risk of death for infections caused by the Omicron variant relative to Delta (i.e. averaged over age and immune status), but ~90% doesn't strike me as implausible at this stage.
Trump hints that he "was all set" to call Bernie a Communist, until Biden won Super Tuesday:
I'll tell you, I was all set for Bernie because I thought it was going to happen. We get ready for things. So mentally I’m all set for Bernie, communist, I had everything down. I was all set and then we have this crazy thing that happened on Tuesday...
Trump +195,953 votes
6,277,135 votes reporting
~88% estimated vote reporting
~855,973 votes remaining
Biden must win remaining votes 525,963 to 330,010.
Biden must win remaining ballots 61% - 39%.
Biden is favored. Mail ballots are HEAVILY D.
Politico reports that "The Newsom recall just got real. The campaign to oust Newsom went from unlikely to unavoidable this week." Not sure why they thought it was unlikely, perhaps they should have been checking Metaculus!
@Reprisal I don't understand what this means except you didn't predict right.
I'd be interested in a short fuze question about pardons or commutations for one or more Capitol stormers over the next week-and-a-half.
Not looking great for the 97% Metaculus prediction here.