### Espargos (10) Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?

I am still below the crowd, currently on 65 %. If we take how many days we need to hit 5M refugees based on 7-day average, we currently need 18.8 days (according to https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine). That seems soon enough, right? Except that is the longest it has been in about 22 days (since March 5th). So, current trend is that we will not hit 5M. (number of days is increasing). this simple extrapolation does not work, if trend changes. I don't think numbers will start to increase, but there might be some number X, below which they will ...

### Espargos (8) Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?

@(adekcz) So, this is a learning lesson. Data are being retroactively increased. It is something I though I checked, but not properly. Currently, 7 last days look like this: | date | days to 5M, based on 7-day avg | | ---------- | ------------------------------ | | 2022-04-01 | 17.82 | | 2022-04-02 | 17.31 | | 2022-04-03 | 16.64 | | 2022-04-04 | 15.88 | | 2022-04-05 | 14.57 | | 2022-04-06 | 13.31 ...

### Espargos (4) Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?

@CraigMichael question is imho about successful coup. the cited part from Wikipedia is clear about that. I don't think Jan 6 would trigger yes resolution.

### Espargos (4) Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?

I am going significantly lower then crowd with 50 percent. Maybe lower after i do further analysis. Yes, currently there are almost 4mil refugees, which would suggest approximately 1 mil per week. But when looking at graph here https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine it clearly slows to almost a halt.

Unless Russia makes major progress (which seems unlikely) situation might stabilize, and people might get used to being in a war and will not leave, especially if they haven't left so far.

### Espargos (4) Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?

"five reputable media outlets" is bit unfortunate in this case. Because they all used UNHCR today, they will not run similar story with different data source tommorow. (story like "yesterday UNHCR said it was 5M, but today we counted refugees ourself and indeed, it is 5M" just doesnt make sense to publish).

@AlyssaStevens If we want to resolve to YES, should we gather individual country reports that add up to 5M? (even though, that is mostly what UNHCR does..)

### Espargos (3) Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?

This is great video about, how we basically haven't found any habitable earth like planet so far: https://youtu.be/IFx3r32r-GU . Even if we knew they are quite frequent, bunch of things with chained probability would have to be true, in order for us to detect technosignals. To name few: life evolved, intelligent live evolved, technologically detectable civilization emerged, it exists currently (or recently enough, that technosignatures didn't fade out), it is in detectable range, it is detectable (e.g. orbital plane is aligned for transit method etc), we...

### Espargos (1) Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/amerâ€¦ I think Fox News is pulling the rug under Trump. He is even less likely to win now.