Finally, we can YOLO our Metaculus points, like true epistemic degenerates

@Tamay <3

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My feedback is that I deeply dislike the new design on desktop, but it's great on phone. Also note: I often dislike design changes initially.

Wow, I didn't expect a 65% from the community. I am less confident than that, but now idk anymore. Maybe because I'm not familiar with Wikipedia's "In the news" section and

@fianxu it was this video. Timestamp provided. The speaker is Nir Barzilai.

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@Jgalt We have to thank him for having the courtesy of not exploding immediately so that we could gain some Metaculus points (unless the resolution is going to be changed)


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@Jgalt It will probably not be banned, but we have probably lost it anyway ,_,

@AvrahamEisenberg This feels very suspect to me, but I'll delve into modal realism at some point and probably get back to you because I'm sorta curious

@(kokotajlod) The most impressive thing is that I made a fakeish argument about why anime contribute to international stability, and Emerson suggested me a sorta related movie (Equilibrium). Then I asked it to repeat my argument because I wanted to see if it could. Not only it had understood the argument, but it answered with a smart-sounding counterargument: anime make people less likely to be interested in international news and therefore less likely to care about the world outside their country. Edit: plus, it displayed correct basic knowledge about...

@fianxu In past videos I saw, people mentioned a new organization with $1B per year budget.

@kokotajlod I have to eat my words a little, I'm conversing some more, and sometimes it is very unrealistic. I got somewhat lucky. "According to the State Department’s official biography of Trump, “Donald J. Trump's term ended on 2021-01-11 19:22:18. According to this biography, his term ended almost ten minutes shy of 8PM this evening. Mike Pence’s biography is showing a similar message. Shortly after this story was published, both pages stop...

In this video and in another one I saw but can't find right now, Aubrey says that Bezos reached out to SENS every year since 2006 to ask for updates, but never donated anything.

With today's lifespans, the oldest people born in the year 2000 would live to see almost 2120. I'm at 77%: 16% of x-risk and 90% conditioned on no x-risk.

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I was at 25%. Take that Metaculus community!

Edit: I wish I could post such useless comments and then delete them.

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@Sylvain I remember that thing not being super obvious for me either if this is of any help to you