As of 28 Jan, David Bennett was well enough to start undergoing physical therapy. Still looking good.
The guy with the pig’s heart is still doing well, over two weeks after the operation. It looks pretty good for this to meet the resolution criteria.
I’m assuming that Turkey (and Hungary?) will be arm-twisted and/or bought off, but leaving a few % chance of a negative resolution in case Turkey is really determined and just refuses to ratify.
Wikipedia reports Ukrainian claims that they killed 60 Russian saboteurs within Kyiv on the night of 25th Feb alone, plus further ‘heavy fighting’ near Kyiv Zoo and on other streets on the 26th. And then a Russian convoy tried to set up a base at Syrets metro station on the 27th. That has to add up to more than 100 soldiers within the city limits.
@CheChe Conservative party is widely expected to lose the next general election due 2024. Depending on exactly how many seats they get, there’s a plausible scenario where Labour has to go into coalition with the SNP in which case the SNP can demand a referendum on independence as the price of their support. I put this scenario at about 20% probability.
@Jgalt She clarified that to be in ‘this decade’ ie by 2030
The current Bitcoin price is 38.2k. The community forecast is 49.5k which implies that Bitcoin will go up 30% in ten months in an environment where central banks are raising interest rates and therefore making fiat currency holdings relatively more attractive. Yes, I get that Bitcoin has been super-volatile in the past and is certainly capable of moves of this magnitude, but are my fellow forecasters sure this should be the central case?
NOAA has updated data for Feb: YTD temperature anomaly is 0.84C vs 0.71C for YTD in 2021, and 0.84C for the whole of 2021.
I’m surprised the forecast on this is so low. It seems inconsistent with this question giving a 20% probability that Putin will no longer be president by the end of this year. If Russia revolts and throws Putin out, and whatever new regime ends the war in Ukraine then very probably most or all sanctions end and Nord Stream 2 can be completed.
Is it worth changing the title to be completely clear that this question is asking about new car sales?
If Boris does become PM again next week, what are the odds on his surviving the next two months to the resolution date? Given that last time round half his Cabinet resigned and his own MPs forced him to resign because of a string of scandals, none of which have gone away.
I think if Boris gets chosen as next PM I’ll update to 80-85% on the question, but would be interested to hear other opinions.
In the spirit of optimism, I think you should add the possibility to forecast that emissions peaked in 2019, since 2020 and 2021 were below the pre-Covid peak, and there is some non-zero chance that emissions will fall from here. If emissions from land-use change are included as well as fossil fuels, the latest estimate is that emissions were already flat-lining pre-Covid.
The NOAA has updated data for Feb; YTD temperature anomaly is +0.84C which is well below +1.19C for 2016 YTD and +0.99C for 2016 total (2016 was the hottest year so far)
UK is now estimating 20k Russian soldiers killed.
This comment was originally posted on 50,000
@emilowk Request for clarification: for your criterion "the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy" is that an AND or an OR? Do all three countries need to quit the euro for positive resolution, or only one of them? For example, what if Germany left the eurozone and reintroduced the Deutschmark but France and Italy remained in the eurozone and had approx 100% of transactions in euros, how would this question resolve?