As of 28 Jan, David Bennett was well enough to start undergoing physical therapy. Still looking good.…

We should add Luxembourg to the list of options. Since it has a) a small territory on Earth, meaning it doesn’t take much to administer more than that in space and b) [a track record]( of using its sovereignty creatively to attract business including in the space industry. Separate point, I would see the Isle of Man as a contender for similar reasons, but it’s a self-governing dependency not a country as normally defined. ...

The guy with the pig’s heart is still doing well, over two weeks after the operation. It looks pretty good for this to meet the resolution criteria.…

The latest date this could resolve is 2150, ie someone born in the year 2000 lives to the age of 150. I don't want to bet against a hundred and thirty years of technology. For comparison, life expectancy [in the UK]( has gone from 45.8 in 1890 to 81.1 in 2020. [In the US]( that's 44.1 to 78.8 Yes, that's average life expectancy not maximum lifespan, but it's an easy-to-search indication...

I’m assuming that Turkey (and Hungary?) will be arm-twisted and/or bought off, but leaving a few % chance of a negative resolution in case Turkey is really determined and just refuses to ratify.

Wikipedia reports Ukrainian claims that they killed 60 Russian saboteurs within Kyiv on the night of 25th Feb alone, plus further ‘heavy fighting’ near Kyiv Zoo and on other streets on the 26th. And then a Russian convoy tried to set up a base at Syrets metro station on the 27th. That has to add up to more than 100 soldiers within the city limits.

@CheChe Conservative party is widely expected to lose the next general election due 2024. Depending on exactly how many seats they get, there’s a plausible scenario where Labour has to go into coalition with the SNP in which case the SNP can demand a referendum on independence as the price of their support. I put this scenario at about 20% probability.

Proposed question: will Moldova unite with Romania before 2025? Moldova and Romania speak the same language and [reunification has been a possibility since independence]( This Jan 2022 [article]( quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania. That was *before* Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in both NATO and the EU, so by joining Romania, Moldo...

@Jgalt She clarified that to be in ‘this decade’ ie by 2030

The current Bitcoin price is 38.2k. The community forecast is 49.5k which implies that Bitcoin will go up 30% in ten months in an environment where central banks are raising interest rates and therefore making fiat currency holdings relatively more attractive. Yes, I get that Bitcoin has been super-volatile in the past and is certainly capable of moves of this magnitude, but are my fellow forecasters sure this should be the central case?

NOAA has updated data for Feb: YTD temperature anomaly is 0.84C vs 0.71C for YTD in 2021, and 0.84C for the whole of 2021.

I’m surprised the forecast on this is so low. It seems inconsistent with this question giving a 20% probability that Putin will no longer be president by the end of this year. If Russia revolts and throws Putin out, and whatever new regime ends the war in Ukraine then very probably most or all sanctions end and Nord Stream 2 can be completed.

Is it worth changing the title to be completely clear that this question is asking about new car sales?

Base rate looks very low here. Other than the UK (twice) and Greenland, no one else has ever had a vote on leaving the EU, according [to Wikipedia]( Admittedly, you can’t just calculate 27 countries x 45 years, because the EU has expanded over time, but the level of referendums per country-year looks <1%. A month ago I’d have said Hungary’s probability of holding a referendum was well above base rate, but following the Russian invasion of Ukraine I expect any country in Eastern Euro...

If Boris does become PM again next week, what are the odds on his surviving the next two months to the resolution date? Given that last time round half his Cabinet resigned and his own MPs forced him to resign because of a string of scandals, none of which have gone away.

I think if Boris gets chosen as next PM I’ll update to 80-85% on the question, but would be interested to hear other opinions.

In the spirit of optimism, I think you should add the possibility to forecast that emissions peaked in 2019, since 2020 and 2021 were below the pre-Covid peak, and there is some non-zero chance that emissions will fall from here. If emissions from land-use change are included as well as fossil fuels, the latest estimate is that emissions were already flat-lining pre-Covid.

@jzima Have a look at the charts in this Short version is that even the IPCC now sees only scenarios in the range of 2-3C as plausible, compared to much wider ranges as recently as 2014.

The NOAA has updated data for Feb; YTD temperature anomaly is +0.84C which is well below +1.19C for 2016 YTD and +0.99C for 2016 total (2016 was the hottest year so far)

UK is now estimating 20k Russian soldiers killed.

This comment was originally posted on 50,000

@emilowk Request for clarification: for your criterion "the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy" is that an AND or an OR? Do all three countries need to quit the euro for positive resolution, or only one of them? For example, what if Germany left the eurozone and reintroduced the Deutschmark but France and Italy remained in the eurozone and had approx 100% of transactions in euros, how would this question resolve?