### DavidRhysBernard (7) How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?

I scraped the data about the podcasts from Apple podcasts and did some basic graphs and analysis. There's a csv of the data in the linked Github so feel free to look yourself. Average yearly hours is 56. So far this year there have been 31.6 hours and if we extrapolate this forward for the rest of the year we get 68.4 hours. But there's a dip towards the end of each year around Christmas so this is probably a slight overestimate.

https://github.com/DavidRhysBernard/80k_forecast

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### DavidRhysBernard (5) Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?

Since there is still some uncertainty about whether we're going with all academics being in the top 8, or at least one, I offer base rates for both these questions. Dataset, downloaded from Wikipedia with analysis is available here: https://github.com/DavidRhysBernard/nobel_prize_top_8 EDIT: uncertainty is only from my misinterpretation of the discussion, relevant base rate is the third one, 39%. 52% of people who have won the Nobel are in the listed top 8 71% of years from 1969-2019 have at least one top 8 recipient, (70% from 2000-2019) 39% of year...

### DavidRhysBernard (3) How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?

First episode of the podcast was released on 06/06/2017. 3 years ago so the more relevant average is 171/3 = 57 hrs/yr.

### DavidRhysBernard (3) How many reviews will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?

@Sylvain

I moderately object to choosing 'ratings' since the text of the question unambiguously says 'reviews'. This is obviously partially self-serving since my previous predictions were all solely for reviews and didn't account for ambiguity of interpretation, but still, sticking with reviews seems fairer to me.

### DavidRhysBernard (3) By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?

I'd just highlight that when you click the link to the CCI, it defaults to giving you the OECD - total CCI, which is lower than USA. You have to select the USA in highlighted countries. The numbers @cmeinel and @AdamRen use in their analysis are for OECD - total, not USA.

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### DavidRhysBernard (2) How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?

Do the non-numbered bonus/emergency episodes count towards the total length? In 2020 these are: "Bonus episode: What we do and don’t know about the 2019-nCoV coronavirus", "Bonus episode: Arden & Rob on demandingness, work-life balance and injustice", & , "Emergency episode: Rob & Howie on the menace of COVID-19, and what both governments & individuals might do to help".

### DavidRhysBernard (2) Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?

@admins This resolves positively since EAG London 2021 has been delayed to 29-31 October - https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/

### DavidRhysBernard (2) Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?

Effective Altruism tweet saying it has been postponed to 30th April 2021