I scraped the data about the podcasts from Apple podcasts and did some basic graphs and analysis. There's a csv of the data in the linked Github so feel free to look yourself. Average yearly hours is 56. So far this year there have been 31.6 hours and if we extrapolate this forward for the rest of the year we get 68.4 hours. But there's a dip towards the end of each year around Christmas so this is probably a slight overestimate.

https://github.com/DavidRhysBernard/80k_forecast

— edited by DavidRhysBernard

Since there is still some uncertainty about whether we're going with all academics being in the top 8, or at least one, I offer base rates for both these questions. Dataset, downloaded from Wikipedia with analysis is available here: https://github.com/DavidRhysBernard/nobel_prize_top_8 EDIT: uncertainty is only from my misinterpretation of the discussion, relevant base rate is the third one, 39%. 52% of people who have won the Nobel are in the listed top 8 71% of years from 1969-2019 have at least one top 8 recipient, (70% from 2000-2019) 39% of year...

@Nostradamnus

First episode of the podcast was released on 06/06/2017. 3 years ago so the more relevant average is 171/3 = 57 hrs/yr.

@Sylvain

I moderately object to choosing 'ratings' since the text of the question unambiguously says 'reviews'. This is obviously partially self-serving since my previous predictions were all solely for reviews and didn't account for ambiguity of interpretation, but still, sticking with reviews seems fairer to me.

I'd just highlight that when you click the link to the CCI, it defaults to giving you the OECD - total CCI, which is lower than USA. You have to select the USA in highlighted countries. The numbers @cmeinel and @AdamRen use in their analysis are for OECD - total, not USA.

— edited by DavidRhysBernard

@alexrjl

Do the non-numbered bonus/emergency episodes count towards the total length? In 2020 these are: "Bonus episode: What we do and don’t know about the 2019-nCoV coronavirus", "Bonus episode: Arden & Rob on demandingness, work-life balance and injustice", & , "Emergency episode: Rob & Howie on the menace of COVID-19, and what both governments & individuals might do to help".

@admins This resolves positively since EAG London 2021 has been delayed to 29-31 October - https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/

Effective Altruism tweet saying it has been postponed to 30th April 2021

https://twitter.com/Effect_Altruism/status/12…

Confirmed on EA Global website

https://www.eaglobal.org/

Thanks @(alexrjl). I also originally missed the 3 bonus/emergency episodes so the dataset which was 80 is now 84 episodes. The relevant statistics now are: Average yearly hours = 58 Hours so far in 2020 = 35.5 2020 daily rate = 0.197 Extrapolation of 2020 rate = 79.6 I redid @amandango's more sensible second half of the year extrapolations but got higher daily rates of: 2017 = 0.132 2018 = 0.203 2019 = 0.116 2017-2019 = 0.150 @amandango, can you check my new code to make sure I'm calculating the daily rates the same way you did? I didn't originally ...