Looks like not updating since January has served me well here!

Seems like Sanders being less likely to get the nomination makes this less likely to resolve positively.

@EvanHarper I think it's not that uncommon for CCP propaganda to be insistent and hysterical.

Berkeley Earth's 2018 temperature report includes a prediction for 2019 temperatures, as well as a bunch of detailed analysis.

Hi everyone! Glad to be able to keep things running smoothly here, and like Sylvain, I expect to be around in the comment section if you have questions, praise, or concerns.

Decided to combine everyone's two favourite topics to test the limits of pessimism.

@DanielFilan My guess is that you should expect their tone to be a function of what emotions/stance they want to provoke, and basically independent of how right they are on the underlying facts.

@(Uncle Jeff) Here are 6 in the past week: - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/ - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-good-for-you/ - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/ - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter...

It would be convenient to be able to un-smiley a comment that you've smileyd.

Moving the closing date from Dec 30 3000 to Dec 30 6999 in accordance with guidelines.

It would be nice to see some measure of calibration for continuous questions. Simplest version would just tell you how often the result was in your central 50% CI. Harder version would have a slider for how wide the central CI is, and tell you how often the result was in that CI (or just plot it on a graph).

My thoughts on this:

  • Ambiguous is probably the right resolution, since I do think it's ambiguous whether the media reports of >1000 protesters arrested are credible.
  • I'm irritated by the resolution here, since you would a priori think that Reuters saying that >1000 protesters were arrested would count as a credible media report.
  • I wish that there were a better resolution criterion, even if that's "If Reuters or the BBC say it happened, then it happened, regardless of how credible that is".

— edited by DanielFilan

Will the US federal government mail out every adult citizen a $1000 check during the month of April?

@Jgalt Quote a NYT spokesperson gave in the National Review:

We do not comment on what we may or may not publish in the future. But when we report on newsworthy or influential figures, our goal is always to give readers all the accurate and relevant information we can.

— edited by DanielFilan

Just learned I have a friend with an account who has tested positive but didn't know about this question :(

— edited by DanielFilan

@Tamay I think we could actually operationalise this into a prediction: in what year will the BAS first advance the clock without this being covered in [name major media outlet here] within 24 hours.