When will the IMO Grand Challenge  be won?
@benshindel People may also hedge their bets, so they can say “there’s a nuclear war going on, but at least I got a bunch of metaculus points!” and so minimize downside loss.
@HadiKhan This misrepresents Scott's position. He never said he thought that was likely, he just said he had some reasons to think it may be the case, and would like to be prepared.
Depending on what you think of Scott, this could mean he's being a bit paranoid, making a good decision theoretic choice (this costs him next to nothing, so why not be prepared), or has been hinted at the potential by the reporter.
Will there be a hot war between China and India?
This would be far more useful if it were conditional on a detonation in Ukraine.
How many Americans will be working remotely in 1, 5, and 10 years from now?
The BLM protests only resulted in 19 dead, and tge capitol riot resulted in 4 dead. LA riots resulted in 64 dead. MLK assassination riots resulted in 43 dead. The resolution for this question is a very high bar, and community predictions are often very far off when in the 12.5-22.5% range.
~~edit: also, about 9,000 people have been arrested during George Floyd protests.~~ this is wrong. Updated to 15%.
— edited by D0TheMath
UK variant found in Colorado https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0Y9ggOKh?s=a99…
@ThirdEyeOpen Can you provide a link sourcing the claim that Metz is/was a crony to Patrick Byrne?
@D0TheMath Update: my prediction for this week is correct, the official number they're putting out is 77% completion. Updating upwards from 75% to 80%.
@ugandamaximum It would not need to be coordinated. There are no requirements saying they'd need to say this at the same time, or about the same event.
@sokolx Fine print says
Note that this question is not intended to resolve positively should Russian President Vladimir Putin or any successor of his in power during the relevant period voluntarily resign.
@Bookie Ohh I see. The model is that if the US said nothing, russia would blow something up, blame it on Ukraine, then use that as a fake reason to invade, so have some deniability about angling for such an invasion. But if the US said "hey everyone, russia is planning on invading Ukraine" , then nobody would fall for Russia blowing something up & blaming it on Ukraine.