When will the IMO Grand Challenge [0] be won?

[0] https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/

@benshindel People may also hedge their bets, so they can say “there’s a nuclear war going on, but at least I got a bunch of metaculus points!” and so minimize downside loss.

@HadiKhan This misrepresents Scott's position. He never said he thought that was likely, he just said he had some reasons to think it may be the case, and would like to be prepared.

Depending on what you think of Scott, this could mean he's being a bit paranoid, making a good decision theoretic choice (this costs him next to nothing, so why not be prepared), or has been hinted at the potential by the reporter.

Will there be a hot war between China and India?

I made a google doc compiling evidence for and against the Doxxing, with my odds ratios for each piece. With a posterior of 73.88% Scott gets doxed, which seems too high considering Metaculus's prediction. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oUvFmeL3npnz-bg69ImX6tSBRjq9zFE2N-HGEKvA_gA/edit?usp=sharing Updates: Changed extreme predictions to more moderate ones, as I had odds on the order of 9:1 for some evidence, and added evidence that Metz hasn’t published any hit pieces previously, and the article seems like it’d have to be a hit piece at this poi...

This would be far more useful if it were conditional on a detonation in Ukraine.

How many Americans will be working remotely in 1, 5, and 10 years from now?

The BLM protests only resulted in 19 dead, and tge capitol riot resulted in 4 dead. LA riots resulted in 64 dead. MLK assassination riots resulted in 43 dead. The resolution for this question is a very high bar, and community predictions are often very far off when in the 12.5-22.5% range.

~~edit: also, about 9,000 people have been arrested during George Floyd protests.~~ this is wrong. Updated to 15%.

— edited by D0TheMath

I went on archived versions of the petition's website, and recorded their reported percent completion, then fitted a line to their data (optimally I'd use some kind of logistic curve, but I didn't know how to do that in LibreOffice Calc, and the data looked fairly straight anyway). Resulting in the equation `percent(days) ~= 0.73*days + 56.87`, where `days` is defined as "days since December 30". This got a projected estimate of CI 60% (I'm guessing) [119.01, 124.65] percent completion before March 31. In a week this method predicts CI 60% [73.75, 79....
*crossposted on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/* Andrew Glidden on twitter: > Some inside sources tell me @CadeMetz is running around asking if @slatestarcodex meetups were "all white men" and whether "commenters were trying to recruit people into white supremacy." (https://web.archive.org/web/20200702000343/https://twitter.com/asglidden/status/1278459220174573568) Deleted tweet a bit after posting, I don't know who this guy is, so uncertain how much to updat...

@ThirdEyeOpen Can you provide a link sourcing the claim that Metz is/was a crony to Patrick Byrne?

@D0TheMath Update: my prediction for this week is correct, the official number they're putting out is 77% completion. Updating upwards from 75% to 80%.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CHtwDXy63BsLkQx4n/covid-12-24-we-re-f-ed-it-s-over Zvi's perspective > A year ago, there were reports coming out of China about a new coronavirus. Various people were saying things about exponential growth and the inevitability of a new pandemic, and urging action be taken. The media told us it was nothing to worry about, right up until hospitals got overwhelmed and enough people started dying. > This past week, it likely happened again. > A new strain of Covid-19 has emerged from southern England, along with a simila...
Peter Turchin predicted there would be a rise in violence and political instability in 2020 in his 2012 paper [Dynamics of political stability in the United States](http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf). This is the co-author of [Secular Cycles](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/12/book-review-secular-cycles/), so I'm updating hard in favor of greater violence to come. (edit: report of him stating this explicitly [here](https://www.livescience.com/22109-cycles-violence-2020.html), and [here](http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/quantitative-p...

@ugandamaximum It would not need to be coordinated. There are no requirements saying they'd need to say this at the same time, or about the same event.

@sokolx Fine print says

Note that this question is not intended to resolve positively should Russian President Vladimir Putin or any successor of his in power during the relevant period voluntarily resign.

Prior is 1/243\*10 years = 4.1%. Slightly higher, because tensions are obviously running kind of hot, but there were similar tensions during the '60-70s, and even worse (than the '60s) during the Guilded Age (even more similar to today due to Yellow Journalism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_journalism). But not *that* much higher, since during the Civil War it was mostly the rich and powerful of the South pushing for a war, and I really don't think anyone currently powerful stands to gain much in expectation from rounding up half the army and going...
@(falconberger) @johnnycaffeine I don't even think it's a matter of trust. Just looking at incentives. Why would intelligence lie about something which will become clear very very quickly? Why would they say Russia is likely to attack when the US is likely only going to impose sanctions in response? Doesn't seem like they're angling for anything, so we can update on the object-level of their statements. In contrast to the Iraq war, there were loads of reasons the US would want to invade Iraq, and it was just a matter of pushing the US a little bit over ...

@Bookie Ohh I see. The model is that if the US said nothing, russia would blow something up, blame it on Ukraine, then use that as a fake reason to invade, so have some deniability about angling for such an invasion. But if the US said "hey everyone, russia is planning on invading Ukraine" , then nobody would fall for Russia blowing something up & blaming it on Ukraine.