Brexit: European leaders agree extension to 31 January

So looks like nothing is going to happen at October 31.

I think this should be titled "Will Metaculus continue to think that artificial intelligence poses a global catastrophic risk?". This is prediction about Metaculus estimates, not the actual risk.

Georgia is not Ukraine. Their army is weak, their population is small, and Russia can deliver a world of hurt to them without breaking a sweat (and already did once in 2008). Moreover, Russians desperately need some victories now. I don't think Georgia wants to be in a position where "liberating" them from "anti-Russian regime" would be such a victory. So I suspect they would sit quietly and not do anything to provoke Russia. Also, given the size of Georgian economy, that wouldn't have much effect on anything anyway, so why would they risk it?

This "democracy index" is really strange... According to it, countries where there's no freedom of political speech - i.e. you can be sanctioned by the government for political speech - are "full democracies", like UK or Canada, but country like USA - where despite all the cultural turmoil the government is constitutionally prohibited from limiting speech - is "flawed democracy". Same as Brazil, where as we recently learned, last election was pretty much rigged by removing one of the leading candidates. Also, I am not sure there's an uncontested defini...

Numbers here: show Biden final vote count as 23691, which is only 13.86% of total 170898 votes. However, he does have 15.8% of state delegates.


The anonymous senior Trump administration official who wrote a 2018 New York Times op-ed and a subsequent book critical of President Donald Trump is Miles Taylor, he revealed in a statement to CNN on Thursday.

— edited by CredibleHulk

Not sure why it didn't close today but a day late - I don't think Trump can issue pardons when he's not the President anymore.

General suggestion: posing the questions in positive rather than negative, i.e. not "Will this event not happen?" but "Will this event happen?". It makes easier to parse the question. Even if it's a small matter with each individual one, with thousands of people and thousands of questions, doesn't hurt to make it maximally clear.

It's a bit weird to phrase question that's essentially about removal of sanctions and has the removal of sanctions as the only trigger as "rejoin the deal". If it's about sanctions, why not ask "will the sanctions be removed" directly?

@Tamay I've updated the text, does it look better? BTW I have no objection to other participants pitching in.

So, now we're at 45 approval, 49.1 disapproval. Even though we still have 4 months to go till the end of the year, I regret putting such a high probability on "yes". Then again, I couldn't predict how bad the Afghan mess would be... Looking at the previous trends, outside of 9/11-sized event, not sure what could get it back over 50%... Then again, previous trends already made me guess wrongly.… this looks quite authoritative. I guess moderators are asleep, but this is very well beyond doubt, the war is upon us.

I am a bit confused here, I predicted 75% yes, the resolution is no, yet I won 116 points. How comes? I mean, not that I ever were unhappy to earn imaginary internet points, but wasn't I supposed to lose points in such scenario?

I think following Brexit extension to January 31, 2020, it is pretty clear nothing is happening in 2019?

@PeterHurford I don't think it matches the definition of "criminal" - impeachment trial is a political process following no criminal procedure and not connected to the criminal justice system in any meaningful way.

Do it. And given the vaccines being distributed already, I don't think it's that obvious.

From how the things are going right now, Putin is going to murder him anyway.

Not all invasions are "fronts" however. If Russia invades a weak and defenseless country - like Moldova, which has what, about a dozen tanks, 5k miliary personnel? - there wouldn't be any "front" to speak of.