@admins Looks like this is going to resolve positively for the week of June 14-20, with 4203 deaths after the previous week's 5277. The COVID Tracking Project has [a nice chart of daily deaths over time](https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1274473854849609728). There's some weirdness with "this question will resolve using the data on the "US Daily 4pm ET" tab on 2020-06-015 at 16:00 EST," but I think it's obvious what was meant. There's also some weirdness in [the expert survey](https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/8/), which when read literally wo...

@Matthew_Barnett Yeah, I don't get it. Before, I would have predicted $2-5 million (50%). Wonder who the $20MM+ bidders were. I still think in 5 years, or (likely earlier?) when 100+ tourists have been to space, the price will be well under $500k. The value of being among the first private space tourists, on Blue Origin, with Jeff Bezos, etc. really surprised me. Maybe once you have such a fortune, such scarce opportunities become more valuable than I expected.

— edited by Cory

@krtnu This question will use deaths for all of 2020. Maybe you're thinking of the similar "continuous" question that will use deaths before 2020-08-01, and closes in about 3 days.

Btw, your and nextbigfuture's updates have been very helpful for these!

@nhuvelle Woah, I'd take some of that action too. 1:1.1 your advantage? But can't you find a derivative with better terms somewhere anyway? If we want to wager more than $100, maybe we should find an escrow or use established identities.

I don't think the Metaculus comments section should turn into a bunch of betting negotiations, so I suggest we edit our single posts here or use the Discord.

@EvanHarper Thanks! I agree with that resolution. Odd that the 2020 report mentions a 2016 early in-person voting rate of 25.3% (p10), while the 2016 report has it at 17.2% (p8), as referenced in the question body. Like the community, I was low on this one.

@AABoyles Maybe the numbers from the daily press conferences could be considered information from New York State public health authorities? Seems the numbers are only in the slideshow presented by Cuomo in the linked videos, not the written press releases. These numbers are different than the NYT numbers, but I haven't checked the moving average.

@(krtnu) According to their source, [Oklahoma's 2020 ballot access packet](https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Independent%20Presidential%20Candidate%20Filing%20Packet.pdf): "Oklahoma law [26 O.S. §10-101.1 (A)(4)] was amended in 2017 to allow Independent candidates for President to submit a filing fee in lieu of a petition [with signatures]." The filing fee is $35,000. I can't believe it's so easy to get on the ballot in some states! [Louisiana's requirements](https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/PublishedDocuments/PresidentialQualifyingInforma...

@(Jgalt) Glad to hear this news! I didn't interpret these questions as resolving based on a ***conditional*** market authorization. I thought of this sort of approval as in the same class as an FDA emergency use authorization. The EMA says a conditional market authorization is ["intended for a public health emergency (e.g. a pandemic). For these medicines, less comprehensive pharmaceutical and non-clinical data may also be accepted."](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/marketing-authorisation/conditional-marketing-authorisation#use-during-covi...