@Matthew_Barnett Yeah, I don't get it. Before, I would have predicted $2-5 million (50%). Wonder who the $20MM+ bidders were. I still think in 5 years, or (likely earlier?) when 100+ tourists have been to space, the price will be well under $500k. The value of being among the first private space tourists, on Blue Origin, with Jeff Bezos, etc. really surprised me. Maybe once you have such a fortune, such scarce opportunities become more valuable than I expected.
— edited by Cory
@nhuvelle Woah, I'd take some of that action too. 1:1.1 your advantage? But can't you find a derivative with better terms somewhere anyway? If we want to wager more than $100, maybe we should find an escrow or use established identities.
I don't think the Metaculus comments section should turn into a bunch of betting negotiations, so I suggest we edit our single posts here or use the Discord.
@AABoyles Maybe the numbers from the daily press conferences could be considered information from New York State public health authorities? Seems the numbers are only in the slideshow presented by Cuomo in the linked videos, not the written press releases. These numbers are different than the NYT numbers, but I haven't checked the moving average.