@(Sylvain) I don't think the resolution was known before the closing date. I was following this question and decided on a final prediction of 96%. The [CDC's data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases) doesn't perfectly lag [the data at OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths); they use different sources. OWID [uses JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data), which references [individual state public reporting](https://github.co...

@(RyanBeck) I'm excited to have Starship orbit back on the menu! The grouped question isn't visible to me, but I look forward to digging into other vehicles as well! This looks like a useful definition for "reaching orbit" that I expect to work for most currently-planned systems. But for Starship in particular, and possibly other systems if they take a similar approach, those criteria may not be necessary to reach the nebulous milestone we're interested in. I think most forecasters will expect to be predicting on the pivotal date when a Starship, likely...

There is a [large vaccine trial (30,000)](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/06/02/fauci-modernas-phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trial-will-include-30000-young-and-old-individuals/#4ea003524f75) planned for July, and perhaps there will be more. The [two](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4065/when-will-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-that-has-demonstrated-an-efficacy-rate-75-in-a-n500-rct-be-administered-to-10000-people/) [questions](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4068/when-will-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-that-has-demonstrated-an...

Is there a way to view all of my predictions, with dates, for a given question?

Edit: In order to view my past prediction PDFs, I've created this spreadsheet. Predictors can create a new copy and paste into row 2 the target continuous prediction from this hack to download predictions courtesy AABoyles.

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@(Jgalt) Great news! Note that the endpoint for the preliminary 94.5% efficacy rate is [a positive PCR test AND (2 systemic symptoms OR 1 respiratory symptom) (p10)](https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301-Protocol.pdf). I'm not sure how exactly "disease incidence" is defined for these questions, but the efficacy rate could be different for an endpoint of simply a positive PCR test. Edit 11/18: Looks like [the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is also 95% effective ("p<0.0001")](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/p...

Unfortunately there's dearth of polls lately! All the better for Metaculus I guess! I wouldn't dare be more confident than this. This election will be interesting because Wisconsin was the [tipping-point state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state) in the 2020 presidential election, and very close to it in 2016. Wisconsin had huge Democratic-favored polling misses [2016 ([RCP](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html), [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/...

@krtnu Some states require registration in order to be eligible to receive write-in votes, and don’t report ineligible write-in votes. Some states don’t allow write-in votes at all. I think some states don’t report votes for even eligible write-in candidates. I also think it’s pretty easy to register as a write-in candidate in states that allow it. This could be further researched.

@AABoyles Thank you! I love your hacks! :)

@PhilippSchoenegger What a headline! I haven't seen the whole paper, but I hate to see its "Whether this indicates viral shedding that can lead to transmission is unknown" translated to "possible to transmit."

In this study 2 of the 13 MPVX-positive patients returned to the clinic with symptoms.

@Jgalt We might see a reference to a third derivative (change in (change in) job growth), perhaps not seen since Nixon!

@silly I think he might find a way to leave office without explicitly conceding. Maybe he just won’t say anything. I agree it’s very unlikely (< 5%) he continues to claim to be president after Inauguration Day if he loses the election (whatever “losing the election” means...). Or maybe he’ll say something like “The election was fraudulent. I am not conceding. But I will leave office because I am being illegally forced out.”

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@(krtnu) I’m not sure when TradingEconomics first reported the forecast, but I updated my prediction in the 24 hours before closure based on forecasts of 850k. [This September 27 Yahoo Finance article](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-first-presidential-debate-what-to-know-in-the-week-ahead-171840680.html), for example, cites an 850k estimate from Bloomberg data. The TradingEconomics page says both that “market forecasts” were 850k (actual 661k), and that private payroll forecasts were 850k (actual 877k). Interestingly, the differenc...

In order to view my past prediction PDFs, I've created this spreadsheet. Predictors can create a new copy and paste into row 2 the target continuous prediction from this hack to download predictions courtesy @AABoyles. Of course feel free to improve it; I don't have any spreadsheet experience.

I'm at 85%. I think the probability of the pre-conventions 538 model giving Trump more than The Economist's current 8% is around 95%. Most of my uncertainty is in the Economist adjusting their model to include more uncertainty before the 538 model is released. On July 20, [G. Elliott Morris said](https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1285332756671672324) they want to increase hedging against extreme outcomes in their model, and "we are talking about aggregate probabilistic changes around 5 points at max." On July 18, Nate and Elliott had a short [di...

Looks like OmniNetT achieved a perplexity of 21.5 this month.

@Tamay Well that didn't take long! I think this can resolve positively now, currently trading at over a $2.06T market cap in 2018 dollars (based on Q2's price deflation).

We're getting closer! For the purposes of these questions, when would a multi-dose vaccine be considered "administered"? For these questions that require a certain number of people to have been vaccinated, must a single vaccine have been administered the required number of times, or can multiple vaccines contribute to the number? I assume that when an "article" is required for resolution, and "pre-prints" are also mentioned in the resolution criteria (so this does not include the number-of-people-vaccinated questions that I assume may resolve based on...

@(RyanBeck) If the other question uses the discussed definition of achieving an orbital trajectory, then I'd still be interested in more lenient version. I think many forecasters are thinking about when Starship will demonstrate orbital ascent capability, as @ugandamaximum mentioned. I believe this can and likely will be done by targeting a trajectory that is just barely short of orbital. With a perigee that intersects Earth's surface, a failed deorbit burn won't result in an unpredictable reentry location. The conditions should be almost identical to a ...

@(Bernhard) Eyeballing the [accompanying chart (figure 6)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/images/powell-figure6-20210210.png) from [Powell's speech](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20210210a.htm), it looks like the misclassification error makes up around 0.7 percentage points of that ~3.7 percentage point difference. This is a really useful visualization of how the unemployment rate methodology might differ from intuition as people technically drop out of the labor force. I don't know how quickly I should expect this error to be c...

@(kievalet) Metaculus uses a [specific definition of "credible source":](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) >A "credible source" will be taken to be an online or in-print published story from a journalistic source, or information publicly posted on a the website of an organization by that organization making public information pertaining to that organization, or in another source where the preponderance of evidence suggests that the information is correct and that there is no significant controversy surrounding the information or its corre...