@Jgalt We might see a reference to a third derivative (change in (change in) job growth), perhaps not seen since Nixon!
@silly I think he might find a way to leave office without explicitly conceding. Maybe he just won’t say anything. I agree it’s very unlikely (< 5%) he continues to claim to be president after Inauguration Day if he loses the election (whatever “losing the election” means...). Or maybe he’ll say something like “The election was fraudulent. I am not conceding. But I will leave office because I am being illegally forced out.”
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Looks like OmniNetT achieved a perplexity of 21.5 this month.
@Tamay Well that didn't take long! I think this can resolve positively now, currently trading at over a $2.06T market cap in 2018 dollars (based on Q2's price deflation).
@yshemesh Thanks for putting this on; I'm really excited about the unprecedented prize pool and to see the results and my personal rationale feedback! I just want to let you know that I plan on waiting until the deadline to submit my predictions because I think that is the best way to maximize my expected winnings. The questions should resolve relatively soon, so I think the extra week of data and contemplation should be worth the reduced odds of winning a submission-time tiebreaker.
@casens Is the main difference between this question and this very similar question about US COVID-19 deaths in 2022 that this question prioritizes CDC data, and the other question prioritizes WHO data?
On April 8 it was reported that the US had added seven Chinese supercomputing companies to its Entity List. I'm not sure if these are big supercomputing players or how much they rely on US trade.
@Matthew_Barnett Yeah, I don't get it. Before, I would have predicted $2-5 million (50%). Wonder who the $20MM+ bidders were. I still think in 5 years, or (likely earlier?) when 100+ tourists have been to space, the price will be well under $500k. The value of being among the first private space tourists, on Blue Origin, with Jeff Bezos, etc. really surprised me. Maybe once you have such a fortune, such scarce opportunities become more valuable than I expected.
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