@(Nostradamnus) Apple began reporting app store takedown requests in [their transparency reports](https://www.apple.com/legal/transparency/report-pdf.html) in the second half of 2018. Through the first half of 2019, no US takedown requests have been indicated. However, [Google's transparency reports](https://transparencyreport.google.com/government-removals/overview) go back to 2009 and show 15 "Google Play Apps" removal requests (and 800+ removal requests for other products) from the US through 2019: 11 for copyright or trademark reasons, and 4 for oth...
This story of uncontrolled re-entry has more publicity than I had expected. I think it's likely that any visible re-entry and any possible debris landing is mostly unreported because it will occur in an uninhabited area. I think this Long March 5B core has a dry mass around 20 tons, which is far from insignificant, but not incredibly unusual. Apparently [about 100 tons of space junk re-enter the atmosphere per year, over ~50 events](https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch/). In March, Sp...
@AABoyles' [personal question prediction history hack](https://aaboyles.github.io/Metaculus-Hacks/#download-my-predictions-from-a-question-as-csv) is awesome. But one of my main uses of Metaculus is to look back at my old predictions. Right now I have to look really closely at my point history and probability density to determine what my PDF maybe looked like at a certain date. By far, the feature most useful to me would be to see my past predictions in detail. Edit: In order to view my past prediction PDFs, I've created [this spreadsheet](https://docs....
I think the non-interruption requirement will cause disagreement: >It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. At this point, Starlink is finally freely available to those south of 35N in ...
I think this might resolve as today. Right now at [starlink.com](https://www.starlink.com/), it seems like if you enter an address in certain zones (like the Minnesota State Capitol, 75 Rev Dr Martin Luther King Jr Boulevard., St Paul, MN 55155) you will be allowed to sign up without an invitation. This is being discussed in [this Reddit post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/l1grtn/starlink_available_without_needing_invite/) too. Edit: Nevermind, I don't think there are any locations like this between 35 N and S, and even at the more extreme ...
@(Tamay) @(mattvdm) I don't think this should resolve yet. Apple's fiscal 2020Q3 ended June 27, so they have an updated [Q3 report](https://s2.q4cdn.com/470004039/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/_10-Q-Q3-2020-(As-Filed).pdf). I see you're using the figure for basic shares in "shares used in computing earnings per share", but Yahoo Finance and Google Finance use a different figure, around 4,275,634,000 (I can't get many sig figs out of Yahoo), probably from the quote "4,275,634,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of July 17, 2020" in th...

Looks like there's been two old-record-beating exact match rates since this opened: 90.871 (current record) on Feb 21, and 90.758 on Feb 24.

I've noticed that not being able to click on the prediction history box to toggle its view (which I've set hidden as default for questions I've not yet predicted on to avoid anchoring) is inconvenient for me. Mostly because sometimes I want to see the community prediction without marking the new comments as read, and a hidden prediction box lets me easily identify nonpredicted questions. I currently get around this by opening those questions in private mode, but I wonder why this UI change was made. It would also be cool if I could respond to comments w...
[2012/06/30](http://web.archive.org/web/20120630210318/http://www.onetonline.org/find/descriptor/result/4.C.3.b.2?a=1) ("Compliance Managers", "Fast Food and Counter Workers", "Baristas", and "Wind Energy Operations Managers" not included; "Financial Managers" replaced with "Financial Managers, Branch or Department"): 38.18 This is a weird metric. I haven't looked into this much, but I think [their methodology](https://www.onetcenter.org/dl_files/MS_Word/Work_Context.pdf)(q49) is to survey (how often?) a sample (how is the sample chosen?) of people empl...
Thanks for this question, @alrai! I would have totally missed this election, and it was a treat to predict. Polling isn't allowed in Singapore, so I had to guess based on media reports and party statements. It was interesting to see the opposition parties emphasize their underdog status to allay fears of a "freak election" where voters, who may want more balance in parliament, would accidentally suddenly remove the PAP's majority, which they have held since Singapore's independence. I figured the PAP expected to do well because they chose the timing of t...
@(Sylvain) I don't think the resolution was known before the closing date. I was following this question and decided on a final prediction of 96%. The [CDC's data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases) doesn't perfectly lag [the data at OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths); they use different sources. OWID [uses JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data), which references [individual state public reporting](https://github.co...
There is a [large vaccine trial (30,000)](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/06/02/fauci-modernas-phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trial-will-include-30000-young-and-old-individuals/#4ea003524f75) planned for July, and perhaps there will be more. The [two](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4065/when-will-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-that-has-demonstrated-an-efficacy-rate-75-in-a-n500-rct-be-administered-to-10000-people/) [questions](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4068/when-will-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-that-has-demonstrated-an...

Is there a way to view all of my predictions, with dates, for a given question?

Edit: In order to view my past prediction PDFs, I've created this spreadsheet. Predictors can create a new copy and paste into row 2 the target continuous prediction from this hack to download predictions courtesy AABoyles.

— edited by Cory

@(Jgalt) Great news! Note that the endpoint for the preliminary 94.5% efficacy rate is [a positive PCR test AND (2 systemic symptoms OR 1 respiratory symptom) (p10)](https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301-Protocol.pdf). I'm not sure how exactly "disease incidence" is defined for these questions, but the efficacy rate could be different for an endpoint of simply a positive PCR test. Edit 11/18: Looks like [the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is also 95% effective ("p<0.0001")](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/p...

@krtnu Some states require registration in order to be eligible to receive write-in votes, and don’t report ineligible write-in votes. Some states don’t allow write-in votes at all. I think some states don’t report votes for even eligible write-in candidates. I also think it’s pretty easy to register as a write-in candidate in states that allow it. This could be further researched.

When I predicted on this question, I expected that if the base period were changed, then the original chart could still be reproduced by reindexing back to 2012. But because the Fed makes [annual revisions](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/), I don't think this is the case. I think the value for April 2021, before the revision, was [193.4 (p10)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/20210514/g17.pdf). Then if the change between April and May that is reflected today (226 / 222.2 = 1.017) is used with the pre-revision number, the hypotheti...