One of the public superforecasts from Good Judgement is currently: "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?"

Today's Forecast (30/11/21):

  • The week ending 1 January 2022 or before: 1%
  • A week ending between 8 January and 26 March 2022: 31%
  • A week ending between 2 April 2022 and 18 June 2022: 30%
  • A week ending between 25 June 2022 and 10 September 2022: 21%
  • Not before 11 September 2022: 17%

@admins there appears to be a lot of confusion in the comments. Might be worth clarifying before it closes.

Edit: Clarification provided

If the security council invokes U.N Resolution 377, but the General Assembly still votes to support the motion, then this question will also resolve positively. This is to support the main intention of the question, which seeks to ask if the original decision of the SC will be overturned through the invocation of 377 by vote of the GA.

— edited by ClayGraubard

[SCOOP: Biden administration soon to announce diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/11/16/beijing-olympics-2022-biden-partial-boycott/) -- Josh Rogin @ WaPo. [As I said on Twitter,](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard/status/1460643008794267654) not sure how to update based on this since it always seemed likely the US would diplomatically boycott after calling Xinjiang a genocide (not a light label in international relations!). Yes, a US boycott would make it easier for other countries to follow suite. Bu...

@mumpskin Also:

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@falconberger Plus by taking those areas, Putin would dissolve Minsk II thereby preventing the defacto veto power that the DPR and LPR otherwise would've had within Ukraine (there are differing interpretations to what extent those governments would have such power). It would also resolve Ukraine's lack of territorial integrity which currently prevents NATO and I believe EU membership.

[Some relevant question comparison here](https://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/#will-russia-invade-elsewhere): * ⚖️ 10% (+0): Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus? (Metaculus) * 🆕 3%: Will Russian troops invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia prior to 2023? (Metaculus) * 🆕 16%: Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? (Metaculus) Also potentially important: * 📉 39% (-1): Will Russia recognize Transnistria as an independent territory by Dec 31, 2022? (Metaculus) * 📉 48% (-2): Will Russia officially recog...

GJI at 98%:

  • 75%: Donetsk and/or Luhansk + other Ukrainian territory
  • 22%: Donetsk and/or Luhansk only (includes non-separatist controlled territory)
  • 1%: Other Ukrainian territory only

GJO at 100% (same order as GJI):

  • 58%
  • 42%
  • 0%

Hypermind resolved positively (Russian army hostilely entering Ukraine).

— edited by ClayGraubard

@admins The question didn't specify a full disconnection from SWIFT and they are taking actions against Russian banks, so it seems like this should resolve positively. Also, the fine print: > Should this question resolve before the close date it will be retroactively closed 24 hours prior. Edit: OTOH, I did phrase the resolution criteria as "has", which technically means an announcement of what they *will* do doesn't count. Then again, the fine print was designed to close the question 24 hours before we knew a SWIFT disconnection would happen. So I'll ...
@(nr3forecasting) Not sure about your figures on troops numbers. Would be curious what you think of [this piece by Thomas C. Theiner](https://medium.com/@noclador/six-myths-about-putins-invasion-a17c6da644c6): > ## Myth 2: Putin doesn’t have enough troops to invade Ukraine. > Russia has already assembled enough troops to invade Ukraine, and more are coming. The total invasion force, according to leaked U.S. intelligence reports will be somewhere around 114 Battalion Task Groups (BTGs). This is approximately 135,000 soldiers, with tens of thousands of R...
[RT: Ukraine breakaway republic area with RT crew on ground gets shelled](https://www.rt.com/russia/549967-east-ukraine-rt-crew/) > Correspondent and crew of RT Arabic television channel came under fire as they were covering events in an area of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in southeastern Ukraine on Saturday, the network has confirmed. According to preliminary information, nobody was injured. > “Our correspondent said that the incident has occurred in the town of Zaitsevo, located near the line of contact between the two sides of the ...

Would be curious what people's thoughts are on GJI superforecasters' view of the situation. They currently give "No" invasion an 82% chance through the end of May, up 22 points in the past week: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1570

@IJW It will resolve Yes even if Putin does not venture outside of the Donbas, so long as the areas which Russia ventures in the Donbas were under Ukrainian control as of December 11, 2021. You are correct that Crimea is immaterial.

@wobblybobby That's something I plan to do for Global Guessing at some point in the future. I've been tracking the daily predictions across all the sites since December 22.

@fianxu I'm closer to you (80%), but I don't think Afghanistan is a serious signal or issue for 2024. Trump is too close to the issue to want to fully engage, and even if he did I'm thinking it's more likely we view withdrawal positively by the election unless there's a major attack coming from Afghanistan.

My unconventional signal: He's losing weight and staying active https://www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-…