As of right now, today is the first day since GJI launched their question on Jan 28 that the superforecasters are above the Metaculus community when you aggregate their options, 80% vs 75%:

  • 64%: Donetsk and/or Luhansk oblasts + other Ukrainian territory
  • 15%: Donetsk and/or Luhansk oblasts only (includes separatist- and Ukrainian-controlled areas)
  • 1%: Only other Ukrainian territory

Moscow Bureau Chief for the FT on Twitter:

Putin speaking now: he says Russia has recognized the separatist's claim to the whole Donbas. This is as close as you can get to declaring war.

For context, Ukraine controls ~70% of that territory.

— edited by ClayGraubard

#ClayGraubard Candidacy Hey everyone, I'm Clay and I co-run @[GlobalGuessing](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/116036/) with Andrew Eaddy where we forecast geopolitical events and interview elite forecasters. I'm primarily interested in high-impact and high-value geopolitical forecasting questions, and I believe Metaculus can be a useful tool in filtering the geopolitical news noise. ##About Me ✅I'm passionate about forecasting and Metaculus ✅I'm motivated in seeing a robust geopolitical forecasting ecosystem, with faster question generation ...
A few developments in Ukraine: > [NEW: A state of emergency will be imposed across all regions of Ukraine except for eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where there's already been an extraordinary military operation since 2014, says National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov.](https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1496429707314794498?s=21) > [Ukraine's Border Guards Service has also unilaterally imposed stricter measures, including: limits on movement, "use of radio, flights of light-engine and unmanned aerial vehicles, video, ...

I believe the two main countries to watch are:

  • Georgia
  • Moldova
@(Feruell) I mean you are free to run your own analyses on the [Good Judgment Project data](https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/BPCDH5). You could also get your hands on the [subsequent](https://www.iarpa.gov/research-programs/geopolitical-forecasting-challenge-2-gf-challenge-2) [IARPA projects](https://www.iarpa.gov/research-programs?office_name=analysis&show_office=2&scroll_position=661&show_current_past=past&program_managers_hidden=&program_managers=&keyword=&sortby=asc) if you really wanted to be thorough. After t...

@johnnycaffeine Talked with @PeterWildeford about this last night. We're going to get a question up for Lviv as well as Russian invasion of Moldova.

@seanicus64 No. The exception clause counts the areas in Donetsk and Luhansk which were occupied by Russian-back separatists as of Dec 11, 2021, as well as Crimea.

— edited by ClayGraubard

Today, the [GJI superforecasters](https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1570) remained at 80% aggregate likelihood of invasion by the end of May. However, the distribution has changed slightly: * 66% (+2): Donetsk and/or Luhansk oblasts + other Ukrainian territory * 13% (-2): Donetsk and/or Luhansk oblasts only (includes separatist- and Ukrainian-controlled areas) * 1% (+0): Only other Ukrainian territory [Stats from other platforms](https://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/): * Hypermind: 71% (-12.3) - Thru Mar 2022, Russian army hos...
@(Feruell) They aren't random dudes. They are "[surprisingly-consistently-above-average-forecasters](https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1481225191405543427)", who [generally have](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3540864) less bias and noise, and more information in their forecasts than the average forecaster. They don't have super-human foresight skills, but we should weigh their forecasts more heavily than others all else equal. I would say it's fair to question how much people should be updating based on an individual, but Robert h...
Here's what superforecaster [Balkan Devlen](https://twitter.com/BalkanDevlen) says [in his latest newsletter (02/06/22)](https://h2020.substack.com/p/will-russia-invade-ukraine-again): > TL;DR: I see the probability of some sort of military action (including standoff and air strikes with no/little ground troops) before April 1st, 2022 to be around 70%. Invasion with ground troops, including moving more troops openly to Russian-controlled Donbas to be around 50%. And here's what Ian Bremmer [said on Twitter today](https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1...

For context, these are all NATO member countries.

@mumpskin You echo my thoughts perfectly. I really hoped I was just being a bad forecaster all these months.

Trump's former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows [just floated the idea](https://twitter.com/AccountableGOP/status/1461358765052076043) on Steven Bannon's podcast on November 18, 2021. #My Forecast * 11/18/21: 26% * 11/19/21: 15% 📉 ##Original Logic Trump becomes Speaker but makes McCarthy de-facto Speaker in terms of responsibilities (what he wanted Kasich to do in 2016). Trump uses the Speaker platform to return to social media and have a megaphone to attack Biden politically (including things like denying him the State of the Union), and then run in 2...

The question is now: Will the new sanctions and the German delay in certification last until 2025 or not?