As of right now, today is the first day since GJI launched their question on Jan 28 that the superforecasters are above the Metaculus community when you aggregate their options, 80% vs 75%:
I believe the two main countries to watch are:
@seanicus64 No. The exception clause counts the areas in Donetsk and Luhansk which were occupied by Russian-back separatists as of Dec 11, 2021, as well as Crimea.
— edited by ClayGraubard
For context, these are all NATO member countries.
@mumpskin You echo my thoughts perfectly. I really hoped I was just being a bad forecaster all these months.
The question is now: Will the new sanctions and the German delay in certification last until 2025 or not?
Because the text does not make it clear, the UNGA vote would need a 2/3 majority.