How many drugs will the FDA approve this decade?
That sounds like there's an issue that should be fixed on the software side so that the system is organized in a way that questions that are pending and don't acted on by moderators get more attention.
I would likely a question about long-term damage due to COVID-19. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiolo… suggests long-term heart damage in 3/4 of the COVID-19 cases.
From SARS we know that many suffered long-term CFS.
There's a simple way to double the cancer survival rates. Diagnose double the amount of people with cancer. It would be better to focus on cancer death rates as that's a more meaningful metric.
Studies for symptom X 5 years after the infection are going to sample different populations. Setting criteria for picking an individual paper for the data is non-trivial.
It's hard to get a good number for "percent of infected athletes quit due to long-term damage".
@Tamay I feel like having three answers makes the question difficult to interact with.
I would rather have two questions: One can ask "If Chess is solved will there be a forced draw?". The other could ask "If Chess is solved will there be a forced win for the first player.
Which year will a service that provides realtime satellite imagine be commerically available? https://earthnow.com/ or a comparable service.
I think it would be great to have a question about when China will take military action with the intent to retake the territory of Taiwan.
@Sylvain Okay, there seems to be an UI issue. Actions are generally marked in the UI as buttons. "Submit for review" is not a button. If the questions in draft modus are private it's unclear to me why there's a "Comments" box. How about replacing the "Comments" box with a easily noticable button that says "Submit for review"?
Can we have a better definition of what counts as a splinter group?
It's unclear to me why nothing happens with my question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5671/quan… that's in Pending.
It would be great if there would be more feedback in the propose questions process.
Him unreasonable believing that he was in danger of imminent danger of death or great bodily harm is enough for it not being First-degree intentional homicide ( https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/document/sta… )
Given that someone else shot before Kyle turned and then shot the first person it seems unlikely that there's no room for reasonble doubt that Kyle might unreasonble thought to be in imminent danger.
The first year where tungsten rods will be used as Kinetic bombardment to hit a target out of military motivation (testing them doesn't count).
It would be great if information about what elements of Metaculus does is visible when hovering over an elements.
Examples: It's unclear to me what "Set Reminder" does. It would be great to have a one sentence description when hovering over it. The status of draft/pending/upcoming/open/closed could also be explained in one sentence.
I don't see much change when clicking on "Featured". A one sentence explanation would be good as well.
That likely needs better definition. You could call the Telomere nobel price as being work on longevity.
Is the question about whether Amazon can also deliever a paid product to a customer the way they did in the past (I think in the UK) in one of the biggest US cities or is the question about general availability to customers? Does commerical beta testing count?
https://nypost.com/2020/08/29/political-insid… suggests that in New Jersey voting fraud happens frequently. It would be interesting to have a question about whether they add additional security features in elections in 2022 in New Jersey.
The advantage of tungsten is that it's boiling point is 5,555 °C while that of uranium is 4,131 °C.
But I think it's okay to word the question broader.
There are many different actors who want different things. Trump for example would find it great if Maxwell makes a deal where she testifies against Clinton and other people on the left but doesn't testify on him.
Maxwell might officially die to COVID-19. The prisoner in which she is housed is already having COVID-19 cases.
As far as darkweb hitmans carrying out assignations, Yevgeniya Shishkina's assination already happened in 2018.