https://www.ft.com/content/0b3da41e-6390-4f4b…

Israeli data suggesting Pfizer is only 93% at preventing serious illness and hospitalisation from Delta, and only 64% against transmission.

This seems much too high to me, I don't know what to make of it except that perhaps people are letting the amount of their mindspace substack occupies anchor them away from zero.

I'd be interested to read the case for this being 20%+

@Jgalt For the former, if it is just investment losses I don't think so, because it would simply be a transfer to another market participant, rather than "damage" in the sense that I mean it of reducing economic output overall, unless there was somehow contagion in the financial markets which caused damage to other participants. I'm a bit unsatisfied with this case however, there isn't an obvious line to draw that I can see.

For the latter, yes I think that should count.

@Jgalt Reading over the linked document, DxE don't mention small scale farming for personal use, but they do mention extending rights to animals, so I think they intend for such things to be at least nominally banned, even if it's widely ignored.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/15022…

"Now Kremlin’s Peskov confirms possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky" - not sure about the source

Great question! This formulation feels a little unfair to Trafalgar - it means a poll by them 3 weeks out is compared to the final 538 average, rather than the 538 average just after the poll was published, which seems more fair to me.

Juan says it's 91%, my epistemic status relative to Juan on covid is close to 100% deference, so here we are. https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8801/omic…

SBF today on the 80k podcast suggested he expects to find a single billion dollar opportunity in the next few years. $1bn total by 2031 seems very likely. https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/sam-b…

I don't see much of a case for reaching 2000, it would mean per million daily deaths reaching 29, which would be 50% higher than the highest point reached by the Czech Republic during their Autumn peak, when their daily cases were 1.5x the current UK numbers with double the positivity rate. It already seems like the acceleration in the UK has slowed a tad and the impact of vaccines, prior deaths and what I expect is a slightly superior health service makes this seem very unlikely to me.

10%

— edited by charlesd

@kievalet Do you expect answers to all of those questions to have been pre specified?

If something bizarre and unanticipated happens, moderators will do their best to give a reasonable resolution.

If he dies and bequests cause the target to be exceeded, then that is clearly a donation by him to an organisation outside his control, as he will be dead. If the donation is not processed by the deadline, then he won't have done it by the deadline.

@Jgalt Well, of course.

Both in terms of 100% decaying as P(someone passes him) increases, and there's always the chance he's on Mars, in which case I guess he forfeits.

@Jgalt That seems OK with me, I wasn't envisioning them being kept exclusively for pollination in my last comment.

I'm happy to stick to that definition.

@Pablo I think it's pretty clear that (assuming we accept the statement was by him, which seems very likely in light of his twitter suspension and no denial that this was a Trump statement) he has accepted that he will not be President on Jan 21st, and the wording of the question implies that that is sufficient.

I don't think that criterion was met previously, or that anyone had claimed it had been.

Even if they do go public, any of Ant or Bytedance or a few other Chinese companies could also go public and would likely exceed them in valuation. Kuaishou Technology already went public this year and has a greater than $100bn valuation.

@alexrjl Are you sure they stack like that? I've read a couple articles about the Israeli data now and it wasn't clear on that front, but my initial reading was just that 93% here was vaccinated vs non vaccinated, rather than "vaccinated and infected" vs "non vaccinated and infected". The former would suggest they don't stack, while the latter suggests they would.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/13…

Does this count?
"He won because the Election was Rigged. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!"

@Tamay Our World in Data has 20m Indian confirmed cases (certainly a huge undercount) between February and July, and I think there's near universal consensus that the majority of these were Delta. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/countr…

— edited by Charles

@AngraMainyu I think this depends on how clear cut the "crashes and deaths that humans likely would avoid" are, but a sufficiently unambiguous version of this should count, yes. Each bug would be one "source" for this question, however, so if there are multiple different bugs over the course of several years which kill say 30,40, and 35 people this should not count.

I took Holden's side at the same odds vs Applied Divinity Studies here. I think waning immunity will mean we continue to get large numbers of cases for the full year. If it weren't for the Bayesian information that Zvi disagrees and the community is not confident (these are causally related, it seems safe to assume) I would probably be at more like 80%.

I think the median case is that it underperforms - the mean is that it outperforms.

This is consistent with EMH assuming a high volatility instrument and a risk averse investor base, however I think EMH would get you a lower prediction than I've given but I've adjusted upwards as I'm somewhat bullish on BTC having longevity as an investment.