On reflection I would say that it's not yet "sufficiently clear that they have accepted that they will not legally be President on 2021-01-21" from that tweet alone.

@Anthony I made my prediction based on the res criteria, at this point if the council/committee hasn't met and voted already it feels like ambiguous is the only reasonable option. Quite a bit seems to have been published on this since May 1st such that the council may have changed their minds since then.

This is true at current market prices, with TSLA up 5% to 770 intraday and AMZN down 1% to 3185, and Musk more than 1x leveraged to TSLA due to his options positions.

Bloomberg I presume only use closing prices for their index, but if nothing changes this will resolve tonight.

I don't think this is clear enough to predict, and think the resolution should be to him selling at least a specific number of shares, ignoring buys, or at least ignoring buys which come from options exercise. He will be exercising options at some point soon, therefore buying shares. This is essentially guaranteed unless he plans to figuratively set billions of dollars on fire. Whether he does this the day before or the day after he sells the stock he's promised to could decide resolution here, and I don't think that's what the question intends (as it i...

@JonathanRay That would be an interesting question if it were written, but this question is also interesting and nothing is stopping them coexisting.

~95% chance Macron runs and makes runoff

~60% chance Macron faces LePen in runoff ~90% chance Macron wins vs LePen

~25% chance he faces Bertrand ~40% chance he beats Bertrand

~15% chance he faces 'other' ~70% chance he beats 'other'

0.95 x (.6 x .9 + .25 x .4+.15 x .7) = 0.71

— edited by Charles

It seems crazy that this is at 25% for the next 5 years when the other question is at 45% for the next 29 years.

This didn't happen for the duration of the Cold War despite wars being much more popular back then. From Toby Ord's The Precipice he put an estimate of 10-50% of the Cuban Missile crisis becoming a war, which seems high, but if I give a 50% chance of at least one war in the whole 44 year Cold War that gets to a base rate of ~1.5%/year. That was clearly a much more tense time, so if we say current risks are 10% as severe as that and no obvious reason for that to increase(if anything, current Russian leadership is quite hardline so this may decrease in a p...

Even if they could produce cultured meat at a cost effective scale, which nobody can right now, and had a market just as large as plant based meats are now (which would require unprecedented growth by 2023), it still wouldn't be in their interests to make a profit in such an early stage as they would spend to prioritise expansion.

Updating down from 23% based on Zvi Mowshowitz' latest blog post and accompanying prediction:

Chance that Omicron is importantly more virulent than Delta: 25% → 10%.

I'm not sure why the community is so low here - the US is less vaccinated and more open than the UK, just a little behind on the curve. What do people think will stop the spread? Are those who will catch it less likely to get themselves tested?

Next potential questions if this does resolve today: will he still be the richest in 2025? 2030?

I'm a bit skeptical TSLA stays this high, personally.


Israeli data suggesting Pfizer is only 93% at preventing serious illness and hospitalisation from Delta, and only 64% against transmission.

This seems much too high to me, I don't know what to make of it except that perhaps people are letting the amount of their mindspace substack occupies anchor them away from zero.

I'd be interested to read the case for this being 20%+

@Jgalt Reading over the linked document, DxE don't mention small scale farming for personal use, but they do mention extending rights to animals, so I think they intend for such things to be at least nominally banned, even if it's widely ignored.

Great question! This formulation feels a little unfair to Trafalgar - it means a poll by them 3 weeks out is compared to the final 538 average, rather than the 538 average just after the poll was published, which seems more fair to me.

Juan says it's 91%, my epistemic status relative to Juan on covid is close to 100% deference, so here we are. https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8801/omic…

The Dec 22 WTI futures price is currently $66. This contract trades multiple billion dollars per day. I don't see any reason to disagree with this price.

Options imply 25th and 75th percentiles of $38 and $82.

I don't see much of a case for reaching 2000, it would mean per million daily deaths reaching 29, which would be 50% higher than the highest point reached by the Czech Republic during their Autumn peak, when their daily cases were 1.5x the current UK numbers with double the positivity rate. It already seems like the acceleration in the UK has slowed a tad and the impact of vaccines, prior deaths and what I expect is a slightly superior health service makes this seem very unlikely to me.


— edited by charlesd

@Jgalt Well, of course.

Both in terms of 100% decaying as P(someone passes him) increases, and there's always the chance he's on Mars, in which case I guess he forfeits.