On reflection I would say that it's not yet "sufficiently clear that they have accepted that they will not legally be President on 2021-01-21" from that tweet alone.

@Anthony I made my prediction based on the res criteria, at this point if the council/committee hasn't met and voted already it feels like ambiguous is the only reasonable option. Quite a bit seems to have been published on this since May 1st such that the council may have changed their minds since then.

This is true at current market prices, with TSLA up 5% to 770 intraday and AMZN down 1% to 3185, and Musk more than 1x leveraged to TSLA due to his options positions.

Bloomberg I presume only use closing prices for their index, but if nothing changes this will resolve tonight.

It seems crazy that this is at 25% for the next 5 years when the other question is at 45% for the next 29 years.

~95% chance Macron runs and makes runoff

~60% chance Macron faces LePen in runoff ~90% chance Macron wins vs LePen

~25% chance he faces Bertrand ~40% chance he beats Bertrand

~15% chance he faces 'other' ~70% chance he beats 'other'

0.95 x (.6 x .9 + .25 x .4+.15 x .7) = 0.71

— edited by Charles

I'm not sure why the community is so low here - the US is less vaccinated and more open than the UK, just a little behind on the curve. What do people think will stop the spread? Are those who will catch it less likely to get themselves tested?

Next potential questions if this does resolve today: will he still be the richest in 2025? 2030?

I'm a bit skeptical TSLA stays this high, personally.


Israeli data suggesting Pfizer is only 93% at preventing serious illness and hospitalisation from Delta, and only 64% against transmission.

This seems much too high to me, I don't know what to make of it except that perhaps people are letting the amount of their mindspace substack occupies anchor them away from zero.

I'd be interested to read the case for this being 20%+

@Jgalt Reading over the linked document, DxE don't mention small scale farming for personal use, but they do mention extending rights to animals, so I think they intend for such things to be at least nominally banned, even if it's widely ignored.

I don't see much of a case for reaching 2000, it would mean per million daily deaths reaching 29, which would be 50% higher than the highest point reached by the Czech Republic during their Autumn peak, when their daily cases were 1.5x the current UK numbers with double the positivity rate. It already seems like the acceleration in the UK has slowed a tad and the impact of vaccines, prior deaths and what I expect is a slightly superior health service makes this seem very unlikely to me.


— edited by charlesd

@Jgalt Well, of course.

Both in terms of 100% decaying as P(someone passes him) increases, and there's always the chance he's on Mars, in which case I guess he forfeits.

@Jgalt That seems OK with me, I wasn't envisioning them being kept exclusively for pollination in my last comment.

I'm happy to stick to that definition.

@Pablo I think it's pretty clear that (assuming we accept the statement was by him, which seems very likely in light of his twitter suspension and no denial that this was a Trump statement) he has accepted that he will not be President on Jan 21st, and the wording of the question implies that that is sufficient.

I don't think that criterion was met previously, or that anyone had claimed it had been.

Even if they do go public, any of Ant or Bytedance or a few other Chinese companies could also go public and would likely exceed them in valuation. Kuaishou Technology already went public this year and has a greater than $100bn valuation.

This didn't happen for the duration of the Cold War despite wars being much more popular back then. From Toby Ord's The Precipice he put an estimate of 10-50% of the Cuban Missile crisis becoming a war, which seems high, but if I give a 50% chance of at least one war in the whole 44 year Cold War that gets to a base rate of ~1.5%/year. That was clearly a much more tense time, so if we say current risks are 10% as severe as that and no obvious reason for that to increase(if anything, current Russian leadership is quite hardline so this may decrease in a p...

@alexrjl Are you sure they stack like that? I've read a couple articles about the Israeli data now and it wasn't clear on that front, but my initial reading was just that 93% here was vaccinated vs non vaccinated, rather than "vaccinated and infected" vs "non vaccinated and infected". The former would suggest they don't stack, while the latter suggests they would.


Does this count?
"He won because the Election was Rigged. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!"

I think the median case is that it underperforms - the mean is that it outperforms.

This is consistent with EMH assuming a high volatility instrument and a risk averse investor base, however I think EMH would get you a lower prediction than I've given but I've adjusted upwards as I'm somewhat bullish on BTC having longevity as an investment.

Levine does (I expect lucrative) paid speaking gigs at financial companies off the back of his newsletter, which could plausibly be worth a comparable amount to what he could get from Substack and would be harder to achieve if he was behind a paywall. Top tier speakers like Obama and Janet Yellen can make upwards of $250k per instance at these, I don't think it's implausible he could make mid five figures per session.

Source: my partner works for such a company and he did a 45 minute Q&A with them.