The community is way too high here. The analogies from UST to Tether are tenuous at best, I think. By far the most likely case for Tether, I think, is that it is fully backed by something not quite cash equivalent, but pretty close, and it crashing below 50c for a full week seems very unlikely.

Even if they could produce cultured meat at a cost effective scale, which nobody can right now, and had a market just as large as plant based meats are now (which would require unprecedented growth by 2023), it still wouldn't be in their interests to make a profit in such an early stage as they would spend to prioritise expansion.…

S&P cuts Russian foreign currency rating to selective default.

Resolves positively @admins

The Dec 22 WTI futures price is currently $66. This contract trades multiple billion dollars per day. I don't see any reason to disagree with this price.

Options imply 25th and 75th percentiles of $38 and $82.

@JonathanRay That would be an interesting question if it were written, but this question is also interesting and nothing is stopping them coexisting.


On reflection I would say that it's not yet "sufficiently clear that they have accepted that they will not legally be President on 2021-01-21" from that tweet alone.

@Anthony I made my prediction based on the res criteria, at this point if the council/committee hasn't met and voted already it feels like ambiguous is the only reasonable option. Quite a bit seems to have been published on this since May 1st such that the council may have changed their minds since then.

This is true at current market prices, with TSLA up 5% to 770 intraday and AMZN down 1% to 3185, and Musk more than 1x leveraged to TSLA due to his options positions.

Bloomberg I presume only use closing prices for their index, but if nothing changes this will resolve tonight.

Text says Kharkiv, looks like a copy paste error @admins

I don't think this is clear enough to predict, and think the resolution should be to him selling at least a specific number of shares, ignoring buys, or at least ignoring buys which come from options exercise. He will be exercising options at some point soon, therefore buying shares. This is essentially guaranteed unless he plans to figuratively set billions of dollars on fire. Whether he does this the day before or the day after he sells the stock he's promised to could decide resolution here, and I don't think that's what the question intends (as it i...…

GJ Superforecaster Robert de Neufville says he updated from 65% to 25% in the past 24hrs

This is excellent news, congratulations to both Metaculus and Ryan

Decreasing from 35% on Russian statements suggesting their goals are now more limited than they were, reducing the tail risks.

~95% chance Macron runs and makes runoff

~60% chance Macron faces LePen in runoff ~90% chance Macron wins vs LePen

~25% chance he faces Bertrand ~40% chance he beats Bertrand

~15% chance he faces 'other' ~70% chance he beats 'other'

0.95 x (.6 x .9 + .25 x .4+.15 x .7) = 0.71

— edited by Charles

It seems crazy that this is at 25% for the next 5 years when the other question is at 45% for the next 29 years.

This didn't happen for the duration of the Cold War despite wars being much more popular back then. From Toby Ord's The Precipice he put an estimate of 10-50% of the Cuban Missile crisis becoming a war, which seems high, but if I give a 50% chance of at least one war in the whole 44 year Cold War that gets to a base rate of ~1.5%/year. That was clearly a much more tense time, so if we say current risks are 10% as severe as that and no obvious reason for that to increase(if anything, current Russian leadership is quite hardline so this may decrease in a p...

@Jgalt For the former, if it is just investment losses I don't think so, because it would simply be a transfer to another market participant, rather than "damage" in the sense that I mean it of reducing economic output overall, unless there was somehow contagion in the financial markets which caused damage to other participants. I'm a bit unsatisfied with this case however, there isn't an obvious line to draw that I can see.

For the latter, yes I think that should count.

Great question! This formulation feels a little unfair to Trafalgar - it means a poll by them 3 weeks out is compared to the final 538 average, rather than the 538 average just after the poll was published, which seems more fair to me.

Updating down from 23% based on Zvi Mowshowitz' latest blog post and accompanying prediction:

Chance that Omicron is importantly more virulent than Delta: 25% → 10%.

@johnnycaffeine While I've been lower than the community for a while, I don't think this is a big reason to update down - it seems unlikely she would mention Taiwan whether she was going or not.