@(MaxTegmark) Given the boldness of the claim I'm surprised nobody at the LW thread has proposed a bet. [As Eliezer Yudkowsky points out](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLzZWNGD23zqNLvt3/the-apocalypse-bet) it is possible to bet on doomsday scenarios: The optimist pays upfront, and then the pessimist repays a larger sum if doomsday doesn't occur. Would you be interested in discussing terms for this question? For example (since I'm at 1% here): * I pay you 100 upfront. If you win, your reward is to enjoy the 100 from now until the end of civilization. ...

@cmeinel Additional sanctions because of new nuclear testing are plausible, but would there be enough to unseat Russia? According to the source that will be used for resolution, North Korea is currently fourth:

Country Sanctions
Russia 6807
Iran 3616
Syria 2608
North Korea 2077

The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.

Why? If the purpose is to ask specifically about the probability conditional on Putin remaining in power, why not say so explicitly in the title (and include a sister question for the opposite condition)?

Looks like [Georgian president Salome Zourabichvili has said Georgia will participate in sanctions on Russia](https://www.unian.net/world/sankcii-protiv-rossii-iz-za-voyny-v-ukraine-budut-vlasti-gruzii-izmenili-reshenie-novosti-mira-11768050.html). Machine translation: > Georgian authorities change their decision on sanctions against Russia because of the war in Ukraine > The Georgian side participates in all international financial sanctions against the Russian state, the President of Georgia noted. > Georgia joins all international sanctions impose...
Overall I think this question will almost certainly resolve positive. Argument: 1. The country with the lowest share is currently Burundi at 0.09%, or 10,892 people. 2. This implies a population of about 12,102,222. Assume this is [close enough not to make a difference](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/burundi-population/). 3. Achieving a 10% vaccination rate means reaching `0.1 * 12,102,222 = 1,210,222` people vaccinated. That means adding `1,210,222 - 10,892 = 1,199,330` to the current level. 4. The deadline is 275 days away from 2022...


Great! Since I'm not sure how to settle this with real money, would you like to do this via charities instead? I'll donate to one you nominate today, and then on 2023-01-01 you donate to one I nominate, assuming it still exists?

P.S. And I've just realized my earlier comment misstates your probability as 1/6, when on this question it's actually 1/10. This means you'd owe 5.82 in the happy event of no nukes (rather than 9.69) and we'd each expect to win 4.76 (instead of 8.59). I've edited accordingly.

To clarify my own thoughts about this I assigned probability to each of 36 countries being a member at the end of 2025: 30 current members and 6 potential members. To every current member I assigned 0.99, except Hungary (0.90) and Turkey (0.95). To the potential members I gave: Country | Probability | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0.50 Finland | 0.90 Georgia | 0.25 Sweden | 0.90 Ukraine | 0.25 Other | 0.25 I assumed independence for each one, even though it's not really true. (For example, the probabilities for Sweden and Finland are mutually dependent. A mor...

Based on resolution criteria, resolution should occur in 7 days--not today, folks.

The Moon has a surface area of 37.93 MM square kilometers. Here's how much of the Moon each country currently under consideration would need to claim in order to match its on-Earth territory:

Country Area (MM square km) % of Moon
Russia 16.4 43%
China 9.4 25%
US 9.2 24%
India 3.0 8%
France 0.5 1.4%
Japan 0.4 1.0%
UAE 0.1 0.2%
Israel 0.02 0.1%
Singapore 0.001 0.002%

Edited to add Moon's surface area and France.

— edited by Cato

Looks like the Full Democracy category saw a churn of 5 polities from 2019 to 2020:

Country Change Direction Old -> New
Japan + Flawed -> Full
South Korea + Flawed -> Full
Taiwan + Flawed -> Full
France - Full -> Flawed
Portugal - Full -> Flawed
Year Russia's Real GDP Growth
2021 4.7%
2022 -8.5%
2023 -2.3%

Source: IMF's Regional Outlook, 2022-04

Looks like the scores in the 2020 report yield an average of 5.37. The 5 biggest gainers were:

Country Change
Taiwan 1.21
Bhutan 0.41
Turkey 0.39
Bolivia 0.24
Malawi 0.24

And the 5 biggest losers:

Country Change
Mali -0.99
Kyrgyzstan -0.68
Benin -0.51
Myanmar -0.51
Togo -0.50
Regarding the 2022 award, which is intended to cover contributions in 2021, the deadline for nominations was 2022-01-31. [On March 1 the Committee announced that 251 individuals and 92 organizations were candidates](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2022). There have been efforts to extend the deadline in order to allow late nomination of Zelenskyy. For example, on 2022-03-31 [a group of 36 European politicians sent a letter](https://www.nobelprizeforukraine.org/) to the Nobel Committee requesting...

Latest China Military Power Report from US Department of Defense (PDF, published 2022-11-29) estimates that China's nuclear stockpile has surpassed 400, will reach 1000 in 2030, and may reach 1500 in 2035 if current pace is sustained. See page 94 and other locations.

PredictIt: Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?

Biden is currently at 39%, and has been between 36% and 40% for the last 90 days.

This comment was originally posted on Joe Biden

AP: [Committee says 305 nominated for the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize](https://apnews.com/article/politics-norway-government-sweden-europe-f62282bc622b0334324e4a95e170e510) (2023-02-22) > The names of the 212 individuals and 93 organizations were not released, in accordance with committee practice. > The Oslo-based organization said there was a decrease from last year’s 343 candidates, and that it was the lowest number of registered candidates since 2019. Though the committee does not reveal nominees, individuals can say whom they've nominated. [According...


The present protests are big news, but they are small compared to the 2019-2020 protests, when as many as 1500 people died. For comparison, so far 50 people have been killed in the Mahsa Amini protests.

[Russian political scientist says NATO is preparing to attack Transistria](https://www.pravda.ru/news/politics/1702312-v_blizhaishee_vremja_dolzhna_nachatsja_ataka_na_pridnestrove/). Machine translation from Russian: > “Romania, with the support of NATO and with the participation of the Ukrainian army, plans to seize Transnistria and carry out massive political repressions against all supporters of Russia. This will put Russia in a very difficult position. After the military operation, Romania plans to anshlus Moldova,” Markov expressed his point of vie...
My current approach is to classify countries into bins based on probability of recognition as of deadline. With the dubious-but-simplifying assumption of independence we can then estimate an expected number of recognizing countries, as well as various other statistics of interest. The results of my present input estimates are dubious, as you'll see below, but I haven't yet settled on a better approach. Category | Number of Countries | Probability (Per Individual Country) | Expected Recognizers at Deadline | Standard Deviation |||| Formal Partners | 13 |...


Russia wins the war and installs a puppet government. That government and the Russian government agree that Russia will guarantee the security of Ukraine.

Does the question resolve as positive?