@cmeinel Additional sanctions because of new nuclear testing are plausible, but would there be enough to unseat Russia? According to the source that will be used for resolution, North Korea is currently fourth:
| Country | Sanctions |
|---|---|
| Russia | 6807 |
| Iran | 3616 |
| Syria | 2608 |
| North Korea | 2077 |
The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.
Why? If the purpose is to ask specifically about the probability conditional on Putin remaining in power, why not say so explicitly in the title (and include a sister question for the opposite condition)?
Great! Since I'm not sure how to settle this with real money, would you like to do this via charities instead? I'll donate to one you nominate today, and then on 2023-01-01 you donate to one I nominate, assuming it still exists?
P.S. And I've just realized my earlier comment misstates your probability as 1/6, when on this question it's actually 1/10. This means you'd owe 5.82 in the happy event of no nukes (rather than 9.69) and we'd each expect to win 4.76 (instead of 8.59). I've edited accordingly.
Based on resolution criteria, resolution should occur in 7 days--not today, folks.
The Moon has a surface area of 37.93 MM square kilometers. Here's how much of the Moon each country currently under consideration would need to claim in order to match its on-Earth territory:
| Country | Area (MM square km) | % of Moon |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 16.4 | 43% |
| China | 9.4 | 25% |
| US | 9.2 | 24% |
| India | 3.0 | 8% |
| France | 0.5 | 1.4% |
| Japan | 0.4 | 1.0% |
| UAE | 0.1 | 0.2% |
| Israel | 0.02 | 0.1% |
| Singapore | 0.001 | 0.002% |
Edited to add Moon's surface area and France.
— edited by Cato
Looks like the Full Democracy category saw a churn of 5 polities from 2019 to 2020:
| Country | Change Direction | Old -> New |
|---|---|---|
| Japan | + | Flawed -> Full |
| South Korea | + | Flawed -> Full |
| Taiwan | + | Flawed -> Full |
| France | - | Full -> Flawed |
| Portugal | - | Full -> Flawed |
| Year | Russia's Real GDP Growth |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 4.7% |
| 2022 | -8.5% |
| 2023 | -2.3% |
Source: IMF's Regional Outlook, 2022-04
Looks like the scores in the 2020 report yield an average of 5.37. The 5 biggest gainers were:
| Country | Change |
|---|---|
| Taiwan | 1.21 |
| Bhutan | 0.41 |
| Turkey | 0.39 |
| Bolivia | 0.24 |
| Malawi | 0.24 |
And the 5 biggest losers:
| Country | Change |
|---|---|
| Mali | -0.99 |
| Kyrgyzstan | -0.68 |
| Benin | -0.51 |
| Myanmar | -0.51 |
| Togo | -0.50 |
Latest China Military Power Report from US Department of Defense (PDF, published 2022-11-29) estimates that China's nuclear stockpile has surpassed 400, will reach 1000 in 2030, and may reach 1500 in 2035 if current pace is sustained. See page 94 and other locations.
PredictIt: Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
Biden is currently at 39%, and has been between 36% and 40% for the last 90 days.
This comment was originally posted on Joe Biden
The present protests are big news, but they are small compared to the 2019-2020 protests, when as many as 1500 people died. For comparison, so far 50 people have been killed in the Mahsa Amini protests.
Scenario:
Russia wins the war and installs a puppet government. That government and the Russian government agree that Russia will guarantee the security of Ukraine.
Does the question resolve as positive?