Reading the comments, it may be useful to clarify that the issue of an arrest warrant will constitute charges being brought, and trigger positive resolution. In other words, Putin does not need to be apprehended or arrested in order for him to be charged.
If the intention of this question is different, then please also clarify that.
Just a note that there are differences between NASA and NOAA calculation methodology. For example, NASA ranked June 2022 as warmest June on record (tied with 2020). By contrast, NOAA ranked June 2022 as only the sixth-warmest on record.
The question is resolved by reference to NASA, not NOAA. Most of the sources that commentors have linked to are NOAA.
That said, the macro analysis (around topics such as La Niña) is obviously relevant regardless of the source.
@admins FYI that the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre has released their data for 2022, setting the number of conflict IDPs at 5,914,000. You may of course choose to wait for the UNHCR to quote this figure, but I think the resolution criteria allows this question to be resolved now.
Currently, when I forecast a question that is part of a tournament, I get asked to "enter" the tournament.
I would like to have the option NOT to enter the tournament, while still getting to forecast those questions.
If there is a way to do this, I have missed it - grateful if someone could clarify.
I would, if possible, like to see what the calibration graphs for other people look like - either anonymously or not. For anonymous viewing: possibly (i) aggregate the graphs of every user, (ii) also aggregate the graphs for the top 50 for comparison, (iii) give people the option to display their graph on their profile. For non-anonymous viewing: well, actually the same suggestions as above.
@exmateriae @MacGyver Putting aside whether internet is an essential service, I note that loss of service must be for at least a week, as per condition 3.3. To my knowledge, the article only specifies that the loss of service was for “a few days”. We would probably need to confirm by reference to other sources if the outage continued, at the same level of disruption, for longer than a week.
— edited by CastilianoVulgo
@wobblybobby Just a brief note that the 5,000 number for Incirlik appears to be from 2002, and so if the Incirlik question becomes relevant, a more up to date source would need to be used.
My view, for what it's worth, is fairly straightforwad: if official U.S. sources inform us that there are 100,000 troops in Europe, then the question should resolve 100,000.
There are 6.2 million IDPs as of the end of September. The number of IDPs is falling and forecasters should update accordingly. The community average of 8.5 million is far too high.
Source: https://dtm.iom.int/ukraine (This website belongs to the IOM, which is a UN agency.)
I think (3) sits in tension with the other resolution criteria, because one of the following two scenarios may occur:
(A) Welfare biology is taught, but without any discussion of the moral dimension (i.e. as to how humans should act).
(B) Welfare biology is taught, but all such courses unequivocally agree that there is no need to reduce animal suffering.
All the other criteria presuppose a moral claim that humans should act to reduce animal suffering, and that seems to be more in line with the basis of this question.
— edited by CastilianoVulgo
@admins - Grateful if you could please confirm that this will resolve as the number of IDPs as of 31 December 2022. It is clear from the other comments that this is a substantial issue.
The UNHCR's 19 August update states that "Within Ukraine, over 6.6 million people remain displaced by the war". This is down from the 7.7 M estimate in July.
@MacGyver Unknown if Condition 3 is met.
How do people feel about the Imperial College Epidemiological Model, which places IFR in Africa alone at 0.24% - 0.28%?
As a whole, it seems that a notable proportion of experts place IFR below 0.4%, and reach this conclusion via a variety of different routes. (Of course, I acknowledge there are studies placing IFR higher.)
I'm not saying we should take the studies at face value, but as a non-expert, I am slower to dismiss the aggregated opinions of experts.