any government that has had de facto control over at least 30% of the 2021 Ukrainian territory
De jure territory (including Crimea and the Donbas republics) or de facto territory (without those)?
@doromix1.6 deal. We'll find a mutually acceptable way for my $20 to reach you (all the way from Russia itself!) should Putin invade by 23:59 Ukraine time on March 21, and if that does not happen you pay me $120.
I'm easily reachable on Google Mail, the Book of Faces, the Blue Bird of Laconic Anger and The Social Network I Cannot Access (LinkedIn is banned in Russia).
— edited by BrunoParga
@haukurth @Publicola those are the points we'd've scored had the question resolved at the original planned date (the end of 2022). Since it resolved early, the only time frame for which points are awarded are those between opening and resolution. There's even a note under the community prediction distribution graph:
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
Unlike Ukraine, the US is obligated by treaty to protect NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The community is too low on this; Erdogan's opposition was a matter of domestic politics. Now that he's won the election, for some definition of winning, the matter of Swedish accession becomes simply a matter of payment. He'll sell for F-16s.
@doromix1.6 I owe you $20. I will try to contact you, but due to technical limitations that might fail - can you please write me at gmail, or facebook, or twitter?
@nextbigfuture Ukraine never lost the city of Kyiv, what they've now recaptured is the whole of Kyiv Province.
At this point, Webb has cleared 250 out of 344 single points of failure.
I am not sure about the resolution criteria here. There is a not too unlikely scenario: Erdoğan loses, refuses to accept defeat, tries to stay in office, then gets couped or something like that, all before the end of the year. I think this would count as a "no" according to the spirit of the prediction, but a "yes" according to the letter.
@admins should this be grouped with the same prediction but for 2025?
The question about Ukraine excluded already-occupied areas and this one should, too (Transnistria, Abkhazia and Tskhinvali/"South Ossetia")
@sammyColt sounds like you should bet, if your confidence is so different from the community's. What terms would be acceptable to you?