The large mass of 99% predictions makes me think that either a significant number of people do not understand the resolution criteria or that there are a number of insincere predictors in this market. Anything lower than 5% or higher than 95% should be viewed with severe skepticism.
Imo, if it was going to happen, it would have happened by now. Evidence suggests Germany and Italy are blocking this hard and the existence of CIPS + China’s willingness to mostly accept this invasion means that a SWIFT ban is unlikely to get railroaded through over their objection. I predict 15%.
@alwaysrinse I see, I misunderstood how the weighting on the recent plot works.
@fianxu In light of this rather sudden reversal, I have revised to 60%.