I consider this question more of a proxy for "Will a ceasefire be reached before Kiev is overwhelmed?" as it seems to me essentially certain that if fighting somehow actually continued until December 31st that Kiev would undoubtedly be overwhelmed before that date (with Western Ukraine led by Lviv carrying on the fight, perhaps). I find this somewhat unlikely but not impossible. So the question resolves more around the Russian state-of-mind instead of the Ukrainian ability to fight. Peace talks seem to have gone nowhere, but the economic realities of thi...

The large mass of 99% predictions makes me think that either a significant number of people do not understand the resolution criteria or that there are a number of insincere predictors in this market. Anything lower than 5% or higher than 95% should be viewed with severe skepticism.

Can someone please justify to me why the Jan 2, 2024 or later possibility rests at just 20%? It seems deeply plausible and even likely that a determined Russia will be able to retain any territory that it wishes to retain for the foreseeable future barring some remarkable development. When exactly is “the tide going to turn” and what would be the mechanism for such an event? Sanctions have been largely ineffective as a deterrent and in an artillery war Russia is far better equipped given that it appears the West is not about to send over sufficient muni...

Imo, if it was going to happen, it would have happened by now. Evidence suggests Germany and Italy are blocking this hard and the existence of CIPS + China’s willingness to mostly accept this invasion means that a SWIFT ban is unlikely to get railroaded through over their objection. I predict 15%.

@alwaysrinse I see, I misunderstood how the weighting on the recent plot works.

@fianxu In light of this rather sudden reversal, I have revised to 60%.