@ryanbonko Yeah, questions with bad resolution criteria (in this case a source that is known to be wildly undercounting things) are pretty easy to predict, but fairly meaningless for forecasting reality. IMO this is a bad question and goes against the goals of Metaculus. No one should expect that the prediction on this question maps to reality (or at least the reality as suggested by the title of the question).
@adekcz Agree it's slowing down, but current pace is roughly 50,000/day. It would only take 24 days to exceed 5 million at that rate. Resolution has until the end of the year. Seems much more likely than 50% to me.
@Jgalt Ah, I missed the "perhaps" in my original article. I didn't realize that was speculative. Revising upward to 35%.
This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump
@Jgalt There is a section on Elon and Twitter further on down.
This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump
@casens I'm not disagreeing, just wanted it confirmed. But someone could make an argument that people protesting mobilization aren't necessarily opposed to the war, just opposed to them being the ones to go off and die in it.
@CastilianoVulgo 16380. It was not going up for a long time... I wonder why it started again? I am starting to be skeptical of the accuracy of the source.
@evanbd Sounds like I can just predict 99% and edit Wikipedia for easy points!
Finland and Sweden both to announce application for NATO membership in coming days: https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/15245113…
@andrmoe Probably a backlog that they hadn't accounted for. I would be surprised if another update happened. The range of likely outcomes for this is pretty small now.
@icosahedral Impossible to know and I agree. I think I was slightly misremembering. After researching, the Ukrainians are claiming 1000 casualties per day roughly, (I was remembering 1200 by the Ukrainians) so take that number and round down however much you think they're rounding up.
@fianxu @cmeinel Looks like perhaps Kiev Independent was misunderstanding their website when they tweeted the 936 number? It's still showing 936 people across 37 cities, but the date is now "as of 3/25".
https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/13/spiski-zaderzhannyh-v-svyazi-s-akciyami-protiv-voyny-s-ukrainoy-13-marta-2022-goda
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@cmeinel I think that's a bit of revisionist history. The vast majority of analysts (and forecasters here) expected a swift and decisive Russian win. You can hardly say now that Russia's corruption and incompetence obviously doomed them to failure.
I do think it's highly likely that Trump will be allowed back on Twitter. Eventually. However, per the merger agreement, Elon doesn't take control for six months. (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20…) That doesn't leave much time for him to rescind Trump's ban in 2022. And Trump has said he won't return even if ban is rescinded.
20%.
— edited by Baisius
This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump
@Randomness I don't necessarily disagree with anything you said. But it also seems like there should be a large mass of probability in the distribution assigned to "the status quo for the last month and a half holds" that I just don't see in the community's distribution.
It's also worth noting that when I made my most recent comment, community was at 20.6, not 19k, and when I made my first comment they were at 29k.
@exmateriae Thanks for catching that. That's my bad.