I have continued to revise downward since my last comment. Since 16 Mar, (https://web.archive.org/web/20220316003939/https://ovdinfo.org/), number has only gone up by 500, (https://web.archive.org/web/20220421003915/https://ovdinfo.org/), the vast majority of those coming on one day, so it could be a backdating. Original reporting (934 per day) on this was misleading/wrong, per my other comment. Currently at 15.5k - 16.4k. Russian citizens know what will happen to them if they protest and won't be. I'm shocked the community isn't moving downward, but I ...

@ryanbonko Yeah, questions with bad resolution criteria (in this case a source that is known to be wildly undercounting things) are pretty easy to predict, but fairly meaningless for forecasting reality. IMO this is a bad question and goes against the goals of Metaculus. No one should expect that the prediction on this question maps to reality (or at least the reality as suggested by the title of the question).

I initially had a very long tail on this. Revising that downward significantly to 25th percentile 18k / median 20k / 75th percentile 24k. I think the community is far too high on this. In the last week, using the wayback machine, the resolution site (see https://web.archive.org/web/20220316003939/https://ovdinfo.org/ vs https://ovdinfo.org/) has only increased by 121 detentions. If that pace is matched for the rest of the year (it won't be) that would give roughly 19k detentions. Community median right now is at 28k, which seems very wrong. There is tai...
Flooding of the Irpin River surrounding Kiev: Before: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNAvXESXIAYPLBX?format=jpg&name=large After: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNAugfkWUAU5Iun?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 (via @OSINTtechnical: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical) Have been at <25% since Feb 26th. Currently 20%. Kyiv is fortified, surrounded on three sides by water. Russian invasion is unsustainable from many vantages: economically, logistically, and militarily. Even if they manage to move into the city (which is by no means certain at this point), Ukrainians ...

@adekcz Agree it's slowing down, but current pace is roughly 50,000/day. It would only take 24 days to exceed 5 million at that rate. Resolution has until the end of the year. Seems much more likely than 50% to me.

The resolution criteria are extremely unfavorable to this happening: "before 1 January 2025, credible reports indicate". So the famine will have to have killed 250,000 people by 2025. Assuming it hasn't started yet, which I think is fair, that only gives it about 2.75 years to kill at least 250,000. March of Suffering killed about 500,000-600,000 and took five years, so we'd be looking at something approximately as bad as that. China isn't about to go through a USSR style collapse, and I really don't see any way this happens without massive food shortage...

@Jgalt Ah, I missed the "perhaps" in my original article. I didn't realize that was speculative. Revising upward to 35%.

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

@Jgalt There is a section on Elon and Twitter further on down.

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

@Baisius For reference, war protest detentions were 16437 before the website switched to tracking mobilization protest detentions.

@casens I'm not disagreeing, just wanted it confirmed. But someone could make an argument that people protesting mobilization aren't necessarily opposed to the war, just opposed to them being the ones to go off and die in it.

@CastilianoVulgo 16380. It was not going up for a long time... I wonder why it started again? I am starting to be skeptical of the accuracy of the source.

@evanbd Sounds like I can just predict 99% and edit Wikipedia for easy points!

Finland and Sweden both to announce application for NATO membership in coming days: https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/15245113…

@andrmoe Probably a backlog that they hadn't accounted for. I would be surprised if another update happened. The range of likely outcomes for this is pretty small now.

@icosahedral Impossible to know and I agree. I think I was slightly misremembering. After researching, the Ukrainians are claiming 1000 casualties per day roughly, (I was remembering 1200 by the Ukrainians) so take that number and round down however much you think they're rounding up.


@fianxu @cmeinel Looks like perhaps Kiev Independent was misunderstanding their website when they tweeted the 936 number? It's still showing 936 people across 37 cities, but the date is now "as of 3/25".


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@cmeinel I think that's a bit of revisionist history. The vast majority of analysts (and forecasters here) expected a swift and decisive Russian win. You can hardly say now that Russia's corruption and incompetence obviously doomed them to failure.

I do think it's highly likely that Trump will be allowed back on Twitter. Eventually. However, per the merger agreement, Elon doesn't take control for six months. (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20…) That doesn't leave much time for him to rescind Trump's ban in 2022. And Trump has said he won't return even if ban is rescinded.


— edited by Baisius

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

@Randomness I don't necessarily disagree with anything you said. But it also seems like there should be a large mass of probability in the distribution assigned to "the status quo for the last month and a half holds" that I just don't see in the community's distribution.

It's also worth noting that when I made my most recent comment, community was at 20.6, not 19k, and when I made my first comment they were at 29k.